Social Security Trustees Report 2025

[USGrant1962]

The new SSA Trustees Report was published today. Bottom line is a 23% SS retirement benefit cut in 2033 under current law. The 2024 report had a 21% cut, also in 2033. The SS disability fund is OK.

The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in 2033, at which time OASI income would be sufficient to pay 77 percent of OASI scheduled benefits. DI Trust Fund reserves are not projected to become depleted during the 75-year period ending in 2099.

Elimination of WEP/GPO was a primary cause of the worse forecast along with changed assumptions about fertility and the labor portion GDP.

The actuarial deficit increased significantly in this year’s report primarily due to: (1) the implementation of the Social Security Fairness Act, (2) the extension in the assumed year the ultimate total fertility rate is reached, and (3) the reduction in the ultimate assumption for the ratio of total labor compensation to GDP. These changes are described in detail in section IV.B.6 oft his report.

Full report here: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/index.html

 

[Jerry1]

It wouldn’t be pretty, but DW and I would be fine. Given our pension and a small annuity, 23% of my SS is about 15% of my total income. It would either cut into my discretionary spending or I’d have to increase my withdrawal rate. Either way, not catastrophic but definitely would be noticed.

 

[Markola]

Retirees vote, so allowing an existing SS recipient’s benefits to be cut through inaction is the most direct route for all existing federal politicians, left to right, to begin collecting unemployment.

They’ll probably avoid any hard choices, maintain full benefits, and let Treasury and the Fed print money and explode the debt further, because that’s what they do these days.

That said, theoretically, I wonder if they would delay the cuts to those under 55 or something devious to dampen certain voter revolt rather than try to cut grandma’s monthly benefit?

 

[rk911]

It wouldn’t be pretty, but DW and I would be fine. Given our pension and a small annuity, 23% of my SS is about 15% of my total income. It would either cut into my discretionary spending or I’d have to increase my withdrawal rate. Either way, not catastrophic but definitely would be noticed.

We wil be 75 and 74 this year. SS is less than half of our monthly income (3 pension) but we spend less than half our monthly income on non-discretionary items (food, utilities, subscriptions, etc). Anything else will come from our investment accounts. Not worried one bit.

 

[RetiredHappy]

We can reduce our expenses by the same reduction in SS. I am worried about those who rely solely on SS in their retirement.

 

[zl55lz]

Unlikely to happen since this would apparently require a law change by Congress. I would think it is very unlikely the House and Senate would pass this let alone then agree and then it being signed into law.

Btw, the reason the no taxes on social security is not part of the current House or Senate packages is because changes to social security are not allowed in a Reconciliation package--it would require a change via the regular process, again extremely unlikely in my opinion and much more difficult.

There are other ways to solve the problem, and they will.

 

[Car-Guy]

Won't happen.

 

[G POP]

We can reduce our expenses by the same reduction in SS. I am worried about those who rely solely on SS in their retirement.

I do not worry about those who rely soley on SS in their retirement. I'm curious as to why they ever thought SS would be enough. There are volumes of papers, journals, articles, etc... written telling anyone and everyone that SS is not meant to be your sole source of retirement income.

 

[RetiredHappy]

I do not worry about those who rely soley on SS in their retirement. I'm curious as to why they ever thought SS would be enough. There are volumes of papers, journals, articles, etc... written telling anyone and everyone that SS is not meant to be your sole source of retirement income.

If you are making minimum wage and living from hand to mouth, there are no savings. It is about 20% of retirees.

 

[rk911]

I do not worry about those who rely soley on SS in their retirement. I'm curious as to why they ever thought SS would be enough. There are volumes of papers, journals, articles, etc... written telling anyone and everyone that SS is not meant to be your sole source of retirement income.

My buddy...now deceased...refused to invest in anything associated with "the stock market". He did start an IRA once but his dad told him he would lose everything so he withdrew and closed the account. My buddy died deeply in debt and penniless.

 

[donheff]

I do not worry about those who rely soley on SS in their retirement. I'm curious as to why they ever thought SS would be enough. There are volumes of papers, journals, articles, etc... written telling anyone and everyone that SS is not meant to be your sole source of retirement income.

Should those guys earning a living riding scooters to deliver for Grubhub be saving 20% of their massive income in a Vanguard brokerage account? There are a lot of people living on the margins, and fr most it isn't just bad choices. You and I can afford a SS cut -- they can't.

 

[DEC-1982]

It wouldn’t be pretty, but DW and I would be fine.

Likewise. We would adjust and manage.
But if this were to happen, I feel badly for those who have struggled throughout their working life only to be kicked down again near the end.

 

[Rianne]

AI should be able to figure this out in no time.

 

[Midpack]

Won't happen.

Something has to happen, but there are lots of options with no consensus. I hope they will make changes that affect all generations, not just retirees or workers, and probably soften the blow at the low end.

Retirees vote, so allowing an existing SS recipient’s benefits to be cut through inaction is the most direct route for all existing federal politicians, left to right, to begin collecting unemployment.

They’ll probably avoid any hard choices, maintain full benefits, and let Treasury and the Fed print money and explode the debt further, because that’s what they do these days.

Your second paragraph doesn’t square with your first. You want them to make hard choices knowing that will get them thrown out. What exactly should they do now in your view?

 

[Amethyst]

I do not worry about those who rely soley on SS in their retirement. I'm curious as to why they ever thought SS would be enough. There are volumes of papers, journals, articles, etc... written telling anyone and everyone that SS is not meant to be your sole source of retirement incom

Sometimes, we have lousy luck. I give money gifts to a relative in that position. Never did a thing wrong in her life, except marry a man who gave her 2 kids with mental issues, and then the husband himself went bad. She has shown courage and resourcefulness throughout her life, has never asked for a dime, and I would never criticize her for "not planning ahead."

 

[ShokWaveRider]

We said a lot of things would not happen, they did. Being an ostrich does not solve problems. This is a BIG one.

 

[Jerry1]

Something has to happen, but there are lots of options with no consensus. I hope they will make changes that affect all generations, not just retirees or workers, and probably soften the blow at the low end.

Your second paragraph doesn’t square with your first. You want them to make hard choices knowing that will get them thrown out. What exactly should they do now in your view?

I don’t agree that making hard choices will get them thrown out. I think if they spread the pain and keep the pain to a minimum and the lower financial end, people will be okay with it. My hope is that they address it sooner than later.

 

[Markola]

Something has to happen, but there are lots of options with no consensus. I hope they will make changes that affect all generations, not just retirees or workers, and probably soften the blow at the low end.

Your second paragraph doesn’t square with your first. You want them to make hard choices knowing that will get them thrown out. What exactly should they do now in your view?

No, I said sitting on their partisan hands and refusing to cooperate with their colleagues through 2033, thus letting grandma’s benefits get cut, will get them thrown out. What they do is their problem to figure out. That’s why we pay them six figures and give them thousands of staff.

 

[zl55lz]

We said a lot of things would not happen, they did. Being an ostrich does not solve problems. This is a BIG one.

It is a very big issue, and I think everyone agrees changes will have to be made, but there are other ways to fix it other than cutting people's benefits 20-30%. That would only be a temporary fix anyway.

For example, by increasing social security wage withholding, changing the retirement ages, changing the retirement calculations, applying measures to extremely high earners, grandfathering in any of these changes, etc.

Even if an actual cut in benefits was necessary, implementing a no tax on social security benefits or other tax breaks could greatly or totally negate any cut in benefits for many people?

 

[Exit 2024]

We are 56 this year, so buy 2033 we will not even claim SS yet. Anyways , in all my calculations I use 0.7 of the expected amount. What actually I hope to happen in next 8-10 years as AI will be implemented more widely there will be significant SS and Unemployment tax on all efficiency that it will produce I see companies are "testing water" with different success, but some pilots are producing very strong results.

 

[aja8888]

I'll be 90 then, so I'll probably have to cut back on golf and dating.

May also postpone the bathroom remodel I had planned for that time frame.

 

[Car-Guy]

2033..... Ha, doubt that I'll be here to worry about it. If so, surely not for too long.

That will show them!

 

[Koolau]

Something has to happen, but there are lots of options with no consensus. I hope they will make changes that affect all generations, not just retirees or workers, and probably soften the blow at the low end.

Your second paragraph doesn’t square with your first. You want them to make hard choices knowing that will get them thrown out. What exactly should they do now in your view?

Yes. Nothing is going to happen when it's still 100 years (well 8) until the funds run down. That's a full 2 national elections and 4 state elections away which is like an eternity to elected officials.

No one in elected office will address such an issue 8 years before they have to. They will be blamed if they act but likely NOT if they DON'T act. So, it's not the elected officials "fault." It's OUR fault for making them act like (wait for it) elected officials.

 

[Koolau]

I'll be 90 then, so I'll probably have to cut back on golf and dating.

May also postpone the bathroom remodel I had planned for that time frame.

Heh, heh, how much does a portable commode by the bed cost?

 

[aja8888]

Heh, heh, how much does a portable commode by the bed cost?

You may be right!