Social Security

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viking111

Recycles dryer sheets
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Nov 21, 2020
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I've been thinking about this lately. No eligible for a few years and wondering how much of it will still be around. When I enter how much we are going to get I usually cut it in half for firecalc and other calculators.

What are your thoughts on SS?

How much of it do you include for the future in your calculations?
 
viking111 said:
I've been thinking about this lately. No eligible for a few years and wondering how much of it will still be around. When I enter how much we are going to get I usually cut it in half for firecalc and other calculators.

What are your thoughts on SS?

How much of it do you include for the future in your calculations?
Click to expand...
Include at least 100% and delay until age 70.
That's what all of us do...
 
This is thread #9,753 on this topic.

SS will be around for everyone. It may or may not change. The politicians will do the same thing they did last time and wait until 20 minutes before grandma's check gets cut and then they will come up with a combination of palatable solutions and "rescue" SS from certain demise. Cheers for the politicians! Yay!
 
Oh no another SS thread.
Just relax and see what plays out. I personally don't take a discount at age 64.
 
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Likely some changes in funding, but I doubt folks close to receiving SS will be seriously penalized (though I could be wrong - I was once.)

I wouldn't worry about it but YMMV.
 
Walt34 said:
This is thread #9,753 on this topic.

SS will be around for everyone. It may or may not change. The politicians will do the same thing they did last time and wait until 20 minutes before grandma's check gets cut and then they will come up with a combination of palatable solutions and "rescue" SS from certain demise. Cheers for the politicians! Yay!
Click to expand...

If by cheers you mean a Pox, then I agree.
 
viking111 said:
I've been thinking about this lately. No eligible for a few years and wondering how much of it will still be around. When I enter how much we are going to get I usually cut it in half for firecalc and other calculators.

What are your thoughts on SS?

How much of it do you include for the future in your calculations?
Click to expand...
For us SS is gravy so not worried at all. My guess? Assuming there will be actual, meaningful changes I think anyone who is 50 or better will see zero change while those just entering the work force will see the most change. Those in-between will see varying degrees of change. Change = age, benefit amounts, quarters to qualify, etc.

Me? I would've liked the ability to defer a portion of the payroll tax to my direct control with unlimited investment choices. I'd happily accept a corresponding reduction in the "guaranteed" retirememt SS benefit for the ability to chart my own course.

Best advice we had was fo assume SS would not be there for us and invest accordingly. We did and it paid off.
 
During our planning years for ER, we never considered social security in our calculations.....I plan to take it the first second I can (I'm 60 so taking it in 2 years) and will consider it as mentioned above as "gravy" and BTD opportunity.

Now that there is more unpleasantness out there about social security than the usual scary stuff, I'm glad we dismissed it.....and we sleep better at night.

Relying on the government was not a confidence builder for our future.

YMMV
 
I still have a few years to 62 and not sure what age I will claim it.

For my FIRE calculations, I deduct 25% off my numbers as most articles state 20 to 25% haircut so I use the max cut. I don't expect anything will be cut for anyone over 50 years old when any changes are made, but better safe than sorry for planning.
 
As others have mentioned, we've had several very similar SS threads in past weeks.
 
From my earliest days of ER planning back in the 1990's, I plugged in a big ZERO for social security and planned accordingly. And here I am collecting a benefit, which is pretty nice.
 
These SS threads keep getting started. Apparently many people don't look or search.

Here's another very recent one:

Modeling Social Security 2033 Insolvency

I did some back of the napkin calculations for my Social Security situation assuming the 2033 insolvency results in a 21% hit to my monthly Social Security payments. I am 64. I do not yet draw SS. I paid the max for 35 years, so I would be one of the people most likely to be screwed when the...
www.early-retirement.org www.early-retirement.org
 
Social Security is great fun.
It pays me over $50,000 a year as a single person and I'm okay with that.
It's basically FREE MONEY!
I recommend it to everyone...
 
rk911 said:
No such thing.
Click to expand...
If a person waited until 70 to begin collecting Social Security, in 2025, the maximum benefit would be $5,108 per month. Over $61k per year.
 
Gumby said:
If a person waited until 70 to begin collecting Social Security, in 2025, the maximum benefit would be $5,108 per month. Over $61k per year.
Click to expand...
The caveat is that you must have contributed to the maximum amount for 35 years.
 
RetiredHappy said:
The caveat is that you must have contributed to the maximum amount for 35 years.
Click to expand...
Yes. Just pointing out that $50k per year is indeed possible and that it would be wise to do a little research and calculation before calling people out as untruthful.
 
TheWizard said:
Social Security is great fun.
It pays me over $50,000 a year as a single person and I'm okay with that.
It's basically FREE MONEY!
I recommend it to everyone...
Click to expand...
Free? Didn't you actually w*rk for it?

I'm a great believer that nothing is free. I always cringe a bit when I see an ad that claims something is "free." Maybe it's included but it's not free. Maybe even somebody else has to pay for it, but it isn't free.

Certainly, my SS check was not free. I w*rked over 35 years for it. YMMV
 
For our planning, we've always assumed that the cut would equal the shortfall predicted by the OASDI. When they update the amount and year of the shortfall, we update our planning.

I'd rather not ignore SS completely as some are saying for two reasons. 1. It does represent enough of our spending capacity to actually notice and 2. If I ignore SS altogether and the checks start coming, then there's a good chance that I'll have a surprise tax bracket jump. And that would ultimately be yet another wrinkle in all of the Roth conversion planning we've been doing, as well as IRMAA considerations.

Cheers.
 
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viking111 said:
How much of it do you include for the future in your calculations?
Click to expand...
When it came to playing with FireCalc, I used all kind of different numbers and scenarios, since none of us can predict the future. Taking our guesstimate numbers from SS and put them in taking at different ages. Then would up our annual spending by $1000 a month till we fell under 90% success rate. I ran without any SS, DW and I under separated situation, even explored with each of us passed on. With me collecting both pension and disability, half our numbers are no longer guesstimates.
 
We never planned for it and don't plan for it now even though I expect to receive something at this point. If I were able to receive my full benefit today, it would cover about 60% of our "essential" expenses, which would be great.

The next "solution" will likely involve a much greater means testing and we happily have some means. So I prefer to keep this unknown out of my planning and treat it as an powerful inflation hedge for my later years.

This may mean I'm being too conservative but I'm fine with it. YMMV.
 
viking111 said:
I've been thinking about this lately. No eligible for a few years and wondering how much of it will still be around. When I enter how much we are going to get I usually cut it in half for firecalc and other calculators.

What are your thoughts on SS?

How much of it do you include for the future in your calculations?
Click to expand...
Why not use the SSA projections - a 21% cut in 2033?

Like others have said - read the other threads on this issue.
 
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