SpaceX IPO as early as June 12

[Davidhelp]

I am buying!

SpaceX reportedly issues 5-for-1 stock split as IPO timeline accelerates
Elon Musk's rocket company could also price its IPO as early as June 11, with shares trading on the Nasdaq on June 12.

SpaceX reportedly issues 5-for-1 stock split as IPO timeline accelerates

SpaceX is barreling towards its initial public offering, and it is trying to make it stock even more attractive before it even debuts - with a stock split.

finance.yahoo.com

Bloomberg reported over the weekend that SpaceX told its investors it will implement a 5-for-1 stock split, a move that would potentially reduce the price of the stock ahead of its IPO.

SpaceX informed shareholders that the current fair market value per share has been adjusted to about $105.32 from $526.59 as a result of the split

 

[G POP]

I'll probably jump in for 10K just for fun.

 

[Davidhelp]

The SpaceX employees had been able to buy the stock earlier so they are happy to automatically have 5 times more shares before the public offering.

Besides launching rockets they also own Starlink which is internet everywhere plus cellphone.
They will in the future offer tv & movies & sports as they launch more satellites as they need more bandwidth for all of this.
Think cable tv but from space.

I guess a lot of shows about aliens....

 

[Koogie]

I have made a lot of money off the RKLB IPO offering. I'll be sorely tempted by the SPX one too.

 

[Fermion]

I bet the Starship launch tomorrow has a $100B effect on the IPO in either direction depending on how it goes. That is an amazing amount of money for one launch.

 

[ransil]

How do you buy the IPO?
Robinhood, fidelity, vanguard?
do you just put in an order for x and hope you get a 1 share?

 

[monte1022]

I've looked into the accredited investor thing, but still don't understand the process of how go about proving my qualifications. Anyone here accredited?

 

[Fermion]

How do you buy the IPO?
Robinhood, fidelity, vanguard?
do you just put in an order for x and hope you get a 1 share?

Probably if you buy Tesla now, in a year SpaceX will buy Tesla for some stock swap deal.

 

[Semi-Retyrd]

I've looked into the accredited investor thing, but still don't understand the process of how go about proving my qualifications. Anyone here accredited?

Actually you don't have to prove you are an accredited investor. You can just say you are to the prospective investment seller and it is their job to verify your status. If they let you invest and you don't qualify, the seller is liable to the SEC.

The qualifications are here - SEC.gov | Accredited Investors

Usually this means after you apply for an investment the seller will then ask you to fill out a form with net assets, salary, etc and they must then verify this information.

If you don't qualify as an accredited investor, you might still participate via a Financial Advisor who groups together smaller investors. However, this adds the extra cost of the FA's fees.

In the case of big exciting IPOs it is almost always better to at least wait a few days or weeks after the IPO to allow the excitement to wear off and the price to return to some semblance of intrinsic value. Following the first earnings call is also a great time since it allows you to see a full set of real financial statements.

 

[gauss]

Make sure that you understand Green Shoe options with IPOs if this is your first.

Tldr; price can drop after about 30 days when the investment banker who put the deal together stops supporting the share price.

-gauss

 

[BeWealthy]

With SpaceX being valued at $1.5T, I'll just own it via the total market ETFs. How long will it take to be added to the indexes?

 

[junkanoo]

Taking a different play on this by purchasing BPTRX, which has a large position in SpaceX.

It's simply a bet that the demand on the IPO will favor the smart money and therefore those that already have their shares. YMMV.

That said, there will be years to figure out how long before SpaceX becomes profitable and best to wait until that picture becomes clearer.

 

[Texas Proud]

WOW... say a few number cross the TV and I do not know why anybody would want to invest in this...

Lost almost $5 billion last year... said over $4 billion so far this year... Musk controls 87% of voting...

But it looks like it will come out as the 7th largest company replacing... wait for it... TESLA!!

 

[ransil]

WOW... say a few number cross the TV and I do not know why anybody would want to invest in this...

Lost almost $5 billion last year... said over $4 billion so far this year... Musk controls 87% of voting...

But it looks like it will come out as the 7th largest company replacing... wait for it... TESLA!!

I thought Tesla was over priced when it was at $65

 

[junkanoo]

Reportedly, Musk has a 366 day lock-up on selling his shares ... so that's roughly 42% percent of all shares. Plus other major investors also have the same 366 day lock-up. Employee lockup varies from 6 months to less based (on a portion of their shares) if some incentives are met. Maybe this is just me, but I doubt that a guy like Peter Thiel or Alphabet are in this for the short game.

Reportedly, the S&P 500 is considering moving up their timeframe to include SpaceX (OpenAI, etc.) in perhaps as little as 6 months after IPO. This would put significant pressure on ETFs that track the S&P 500 or Tech to try to purchase shares in advance so that they aren't *as* exposed to supply/demand inequities when sharks know that you'll need to purchase these types of companies. Or common sense will prevail and the S&P will be lobbied to hold off on such a move.

Either way, it's hard for me to see a strong case for SpaceX being reasonably valued for a while. YMMV.

 

[junkanoo]

FTSE Russell (Russell 1000/2000) will include SpaceX in their indexes after five days of trading.

So ... that puts pressure on other indexes to change as well.

I use FREC (a direct indexing product) which has many options, but the option I'm using tracks the Russell 1000. Fortunately, it allows me to exclude specific positions. That's helpful when you have a large position in a stock and don't want to add to that position. It's also helpful in the specific situation of not wanting to invest in a stock with no profits on the horizon and I will use that option to exclude SpaceX and OpenAI. YMMV.

 

[Fermion]

Honestly I don't know why people are freaking out over $1.5T when a chip maker goes up that much in less than a year. Rockets have to be harder than a memory fab.

 

[junkanoo]

Honestly I don't know why people are freaking out over $1.5T when a chip maker goes up that much in less than a year. Rockets have to be harder than a memory fab.

Because those memory chip makers are making money $$$ and profits are increasing (at least for now).

I'm not sure that being in a business that's difficult is a great selling point.

 

[Fermion]

Because those memory chip makers are making money $$$ and profits are increasing (at least for now).

I'm not sure that being in a business that's difficult is a great selling point.

Was referring to the moat. You could copy Micron's memory facilities in 3 years. Duplicating Falcon 9 or Starship would take a decade.

 

[junkanoo]

Was referring to the moat. You could copy Micron's memory facilities in 3 years. Duplicating Falcon 9 or Starship would take a decade.

We all take our chances. My view doesn't have to be right, but SpaceX having a decade lead on Blue Origin seems quite suspect. Whereas the Chinese could just steal SpaceX technology on a Tuesday (if they haven't already) and open their own data warehouses in space, putting some puppet company in charge of it charging 50 cents on the dollar (to the rest of the world) compared to what SpaceX needs to turn a profit (or Starlink). What does that leave you with? Third-place Grok?

More to the point about why what indexes do matter. If allowing large unproven companies into indexes was such a GREAT idea, why didn't they do it 10 years ago? Five years ago? Last year? Nope, they're doing this now and why? To get some huge, unproven companies into their framework. And if anyone thinks that they are doing that to help the retail customer ... wow, you are delusional.

 

[joesxm3]

Don't forget that SpaceX includes X and XAI. The IPO prospectus says that they consider their largest addressable market to be large enterprise AI (e.g. their Macro Hard project). SpaceX has also started leasing out their Colossus data centers. Anthropic is paying them $15B per year on the data center that cost $30B to build.

 

[junkanoo]

Don't forget that SpaceX includes X and XAI. The IPO prospectus says that they consider their largest addressable market to be large enterprise AI (e.g. their Macro Hard project). SpaceX has also started leasing out their Colossus data centers. Anthropic is paying them $15B per year on the data center that cost $30B to build.

In my view, that only makes it worse with losers deluding the results. X has less revenue than when it was Twitter. XAI seems to be an also-ran, and maybe that's a bit kind. A shame as I think Starlink is a flat out winner so the overall results will be mixed.

MacroHard? That's your stable genius' immature poke at Microsoft based on the promise that Tesla AI is the superior AI. And that statement and 6 bucks and you can buy a cup of coffee. How has that 'massive fleet data' promoted advantage done against Waymo?

Btw, are chips in the future going to be more energy efficient or less? Because, given that this data warehouse in space (at scale) is at best 10 years out ... that's a big bet that earth-grounded data warehouses won't significantly improve with energy usage ... perhaps to the point that space warehouses aren't that competitive. However, the flipside is that *if* data usage is only a fraction of what the ground-based needs can supply for AI ... then Space Warehouses are a large winner. We all take our chances. I just think there will be a better entry point down the road.

Meanwhile, I am betting on the singular notion that SpaceX shares will be in a supply/demand imbalance out of the gate. So I'll be in for an early profit and then out. YMMV.

 

[joesxm3]

Well if Cerberus is any indication, buying on day 1 will be a big mistake.

I will have to trust that Fidelity will reward my monstrous AUM with a juicy bite at the IPO apple. Bit they do have a 15 day no flip rule.

I got my early SpaceX via BPTRX and will be watching closely to reduce that position. However my friend told me that the Fidelity woman told him that there has been very heavy buying of BPTRX when he called to FOMO in last week. As of April 30, BPTRX was 29.6% SpaceX. I am cringing waiting to see how much my early position has been diluted. I wish they had closed the fund to new investors to protect me.

I agree that it will be a wild ride. I think SpaceX will be a great investment to hold for 10 or 20 years. But that is not the right timeframe for our generation. Maybe I will give my 13 year old cousin some shares that she will be told not to sell until she turns 35.

The pessimist in me must be increasing lately. I have even been selling some of my beloved TSLA shares, despite the fact that my percent of miles on FSD is 99%.

 

[Semi-Retyrd]

The M* analysts who will cover SpaceX value it at $780B based on a bottoms up DCF analysis.

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/spacex-what-investors-need-know-about-its-enormous-upcoming-ipo

Bottom line - SpaceX may be a great company, but it's IPO is grossly overvalued based on fundamental analysis. Interested Investors should wait for insiders who hold most of the stock come off their lockup periods and start to unload their holdings which will drive the price down to a more realistic level. Typical lockup periods vary from six months to a year.

 

[joesxm3]

Thanks for the interesting article. It reinforces the idea of not doing FOMO.

I am now thinking of what to do with my BPTRX shares post IPO. Maybe try to sell into the initial bounce and use the money to buy SPCX later if the price drops. One complication is BPTRX has a sizable TSLA portion which will cancel some of the SPCX pop.