SpaceX IPO coming in mid to late 2026

[dobig]

It's not that I have anything against SpaceX. I'm a Musk fanboy and I hope he crushes it. I just don't see the value in this IPO for myself. I'd rather buy more SCHD and DGRO with their watching dry paint boring 2 - 3% dividend yields.

If I want to get speculative I'll buy a little more QTUM. I can see a future there.

 

[MichaelB]

There's certainly value in SpaceX, and it's not fair to compare SpaceX to QS and other companies without a saleable product. But what should its valuation be?

But to evaluate a company, one must see the cash flow. Then, one judges how valid the projections are into the future regarding the market growth, the operating cost, the capital expenditure, etc... This takes more knowledge than I possess, but I do know not to listen to hype.

From the little I’ve read it looks like SpaceX will be included in the SP500 from day 1. If that’s the case, the opportunity for price discovery will be limited and that will limit its downside. I’ll wait and see, but that would prompt me to revisit my SP500 ETF holdings and rethink my indexing options for the US market.

 

[Fermion]

If I put on my future goggles, then I can see SpaceX eventually merging with Tesla/XAI, developing millions of humanoid robots linked via satellite which take on many of the mundane tasks that are performed today. Perhaps in 2040 this SpaceX is worth $40 trillion and has deployed over 100 million robots.

Then again, I also thought in 2018 that Nvidia just made gaming chips in a limited market.

 

[Quantum_Computer]

SpaceX (via Starlink) has about 10,000 satellites in operation. That represent 66% of all active satellites in Earth orbit. Musk has plans to put up 1,000,000 data centers in space. If anyone can make this work, it will be Elon Musk.

 

[audreyh1]

From the little I’ve read it looks like SpaceX will be included in the SP500 from day 1. If that’s the case, the opportunity for price discovery will be limited and that will limit its downside. I’ll wait and see, but that would prompt me to revisit my SP500 ETF holdings and rethink my indexing options for the US market.

Interesting, I was wonder exactly that considering the speculation on valuation. Thanks.

 

[audreyh1]

If I put on my future goggles, then I can see SpaceX eventually merging with Tesla/XAI, developing millions of humanoid robots linked via satellite which take on many of the mundane tasks that are performed today. Perhaps in 2040 this SpaceX is worth $40 trillion and has deployed over 100 million robots.

Then again, I also thought in 2018 that Nvidia just made gaming chips in a limited market.

I believe xAI already merged with SpaceX.

 

[CalBird]

You have to realize space technology is one of the very few that America is still leading.

 

[MichaelB]

I believe xAI already merged with SpaceX.

The man can predict the future!

 

[cathy63]

For the past few months I've been sitting here scratching my head wondering how they're going to monetize SpaceX? I'm sure there's numerous ways I haven't even thought of but that's sort of the point. With NVDA or AAPL I'm not wondering.

SpaceX launches other companies' satellites in addition to their own Starlink constellation, so that's one way they're monetizing.

 

[NW-Bound]

I shudder when thinking of all the money that has been blown on things that went nowhere, like the Metaverse, the doom-from-start Hyperloop, the ongoing EV-inside-a-storm-drain project in Las Vegas, numerous robotaxi projects, abandoned lithium battery plants, space travel for billionaires, etc...

Meanwhile we could not have a desalination plant for Southern California or the soon-to-go-thirsty Corpus Christi. Instead, hyperscalers want to fire up old coal plants and burn nat gas in turbines to get power for AI data centers.

Whatever happens to reduced fossil fuel usage, renewable energy, less carbon footprint, etc... ? It's all a scam.

 

[audreyh1]

I shudder when thinking of all the money that has been blown on things that went nowhere, like the Metaverse, the doom-from-start Hyperloop, the ongoing EV-inside-a-storm-drain project in Las Vegas, numerous robotaxi projects, abandoned lithium battery plants, space travel for billionaires, etc...

Meanwhile we could not have a desalination plant for Southern California or the soon-to-go-thirsty Corpus Christi. Instead, hyperscalers want to fire up old coal plants and burn nat gas in turbines to get power for AI data centers.

Whatever happens to reduced fossil fuel usage, renewable energy, less carbon footprint, etc... ? It's all a scam.

Nothing new however. Good thing I ignore most of it but the data center massive demand for resources makes me nervous as it’s so unsustainable.

 

[NW-Bound]

Nothing new however...

What remains surprising to me is people's gullibility, particularly as it involves a money making potential.

 

[audreyh1]

What remains surprising to me is people's gullibility, particularly as it involves a money making potential.

It seems to happen every time!

I don’t get involved in IPOs but it will be interesting to see how it impacts the S&P500. I own a large position in Fidelity Total Market Index FSKAX.

 

[NW-Bound]

Back on Starlink, I recall a few years ago reading about the FCC first awarded SpaceX a contract to bring Internet access to rural areas, then a few years later cancelled it.

I remember the reason quoted was that Starlink failed to demonstrate the bandwidth that would be necessary to serve a large number of users in a performed test. I do not recall reading about any quantitative data.

 

[audreyh1]

I definitely appreciate Starlink being available for ship WiFi when cruising.

 

[NW-Bound]

As I wrote earlier, in the last 3 cruises, I paid for ship WiFi (using Starlink) so I could sell some options, particularly on a Transatlantic trip, instead of twiddling thumbs. I kept making a few $K/trip, so that the access fee was very well spent.

And my T-Mobile phone now has Text-to-911 via Starlink. For free! That's very nice for hikers getting lost, or someone stranded in Alaska.

Starlink is useful. However, for mass adoption the hindrance is its bandwidth limitation relative to landlines and fibers, and also its higher cost. And without wider usage, its usage will remain a niche market.

 

[tulak]

I was on a domestic (Europe) Air France flight with free WiFi. They use Starlink. It was fast and was some of the best WiFi I’ve used on a flight.

I also used Delta WiFi on the flight back to the USA and it worked well too, enough to stream video. They don’t use Starlink and plan to eventually upgrade their planes to Amazon Leo (formerly Kuiper). It’ll be interesting to see how the competition evolves in satellite internet delivery.

 

[Aerides]

I definitely appreciate Starlink being available for ship WiFi when cruising.

me too, but it seems like it fills a need for small niche applications, or those in less developed (-$) areas, or places with very small populations.

great idea, how does it become profitable unless those cruise ships and airlines are paying ridiculous prices for it? everywhere with wealth and people already has wifi covered.

 

[tulak]

Starlink will be an network backbone for space based data centers.

This (potentially) solves a lot of problems with Earth based data centers. On Earth, you have to deal with cooling, power, land-use, etc. These aren’t an issue if your data center is operating in space and with Starlink as your backbone, you’ll get great latency across all the planet.

I suspect the biggest customers will be commercial, not individuals. Image all of the trans-oceanic cables for networking/internet that can be replaced. Probably safer too, since it’s harder to take out a satellite than cut a cable, unless of course you’re nation state. But it’ll be obvious when it happens, unlike now, when it’s a whoops, I wonder who cut that cable?

 

[NW-Bound]

Starlink will be an network backbone for space based data centers.

This (potentially) solves a lot of problems with Earth based data centers. On Earth, you have to deal with cooling, power, land-use, etc. These aren’t an issue if your data center is operating in space and with Starlink as your backbone, you’ll get great latency across all the planet...

To the contrary, power and cooling problems are harder to solve in space than on earth. There are plenty of videos and articles on the Web discussing these issues. Also the launching cost and then the maintenance cost will make space data centers a non-starter.

Space data centers are about as economical and technically feasible as the Hyperloop.

 

[tulak]

You might be right. Time will tell.

 

[ncbill]

What remains surprising to me is people's gullibility, particularly as it involves a money making potential.

Ahem...the Moller Skycar would like a word...

 

[Fermion]

To the contrary, power and cooling problems are harder to solve in space than on earth. There are plenty of videos and articles on the Web discussing these issues. Also the launching cost and then the maintenance cost will make space data centers a non-starter.

Space data centers are about as economical and technically feasible as the Hyperloop.

It is really hard to keep stuff cool in space. It is like putting your data center inside a vacuum thermos on earth and then using no water to cool it.

 

[Fermion]

My feeling on the data centers in space is that it is a latency boon and not a bandwidth boon. Starlink has lower bandwidth than my Spectrum home cable, but the latency is MUCH better, something like 18ms vs 50ms or more from the cable.

Why is this important, aside from gaming? Putting on my Mr. McGuire: "There is a great future in robotics"

Low latency is likely very important for land based robotic applications. Just a guess though.

I will not participate in the initial IPO. It is like the Facebook IPO. You could get it a lot cheaper later on.

 

[tulak]

I’m an optimist and believe that a lot of this is an eventuality, assuming long enough time-frames. SpaceX has done a lot to drive down costs for access to space and reusable rockets/Starlink are impressive achievements. No reason to believe that they won’t have other successes.

As for making money on it, I’ll also pass on the initial IPO, but might break my rule of buying individual stocks if SpaceX becomes cheaper. Otherwise, I’ll stick to whatever exposure I get in index funds.