SpaceX IPO coming in mid to late 2026

[mh]

SpaceX (via Starlink) has about 10,000 satellites in operation. That represent 66% of all active satellites in Earth orbit. Musk has plans to put up 1,000,000 data centers in space. If anyone can make this work, it will be Elon Musk.

that doesn't equate to it being a likelihood - he says a lot of stuff that's nonsense. like living on mars. i'm not competent enough to know the logistical and technological hurdles of accomplishing 1M feasible data centers in space that are better solutions than some other way. i don't think he personally is either. but as far as making money on the IPO , i'm pretty much with tulak above.

 

[Koolau]

that doesn't equate to it being a likelihood - he says a lot of stuff that's nonsense. like living on mars. i'm not competent enough to know the logistical and technological hurdles of accomplishing 1M feasible data centers in space that are better solutions than some other way. i don't think he personally is either. but as far as making money on the IPO , i'm pretty much with tulak above.

Yeah, I don't do IPOs but if I did I think I'd pick someone's IPO whose previous ventures have generally been successful. For all his flaws, Musk, I think, qualifies as successful but YMMV.

 

[NW-Bound]

My feeling on the data centers in space is that it is a latency boon and not a bandwidth boon. Starlink has lower bandwidth than my Spectrum home cable, but the latency is MUCH better, something like 18ms vs 50ms or more from the cable.

Why is this important, aside from gaming? Putting on my Mr. McGuire: "There is a great future in robotics"

Low latency is likely very important for land based robotic applications. Just a guess though.

I will not participate in the initial IPO. It is like the Facebook IPO. You could get it a lot cheaper later on.

I don't have Starlink, and do not play computer games. What you observed about latency makes me curious.

Light/electricity travels 3,350 mikes in 18 ms, and 9,300 miles in 50 ms.

I don't know the signal paths from your location to the game servers via the two different routes, but could the difference in latency be due to the cable network hardware being outdated? If so, it's not something unfixable.

PS. Talking about the "slow speed" of Internet data, I remember this incidence in 1999. We were traveling in New Zealand, and when visiting Auckland downtown, we passed an Internet cafe (remember those?), and I decided to spend a couple of bucks to go in to just send an email home to say where we were. I cc'ed myself, of course.

I got back to the US 2 or 3 days later. Checked my mail box. Nothing. Asked my relatives. Nope. The email finally popped up a day after I got home. The message got stuck in the mail server somewhere for several days!

 

[ncbill]

Wouldn't do the IPO, but we love the Starlink Mini that many in our state bought after hurricane Helene.

$5/month for unlimited low-speed internet access as backup to our main broadband.

 

[Fermion]

Wouldn't do the IPO, but we love the Starlink Mini that many in our state bought after hurricane Helene.

$5/month for unlimited low-speed internet access as backup to our main broadband.

Since we are back from our leg of the loop trip I switched the Mini to $5 a month from the $50 ROAM plan but I have not tried using it (we have cable modem at home). Is it actually still usable on the $5 plan? I thought it was just parking it there until you needed it.

 

[tulak]

Wow, for $5/month, that’s dirt cheap for backup service, assuming it works ok.

What kind of throughput do you get?

 

[ncbill]

Wow, for $5/month, that’s dirt cheap for backup service, assuming it works ok.

What kind of throughput do you get?

IIRC, half-meg.

fine for email, browsing forums, WiFi (audio) calls.

maybe OK for low-resolution vids.

forget hi-def video.

cannot used in-motion.

might be a demand charge in congested areas when you switch back to a regular plan.

 

[NW-Bound]

Wouldn't do the IPO, but we love the Starlink Mini that many in our state bought after hurricane Helene.

$5/month for unlimited low-speed internet access as backup to our main broadband.

Nice! Why don't I see it on the Starlink Web site? Am I blind or something?

PS. Never mind. I found it in the fine print.

 

[Quantum_Computer]

I shudder when thinking of all the money that has been blown on things that went nowhere, like the Metaverse, the doom-from-start Hyperloop, the ongoing EV-inside-a-storm-drain project in Las Vegas, numerous robotaxi projects, abandoned lithium battery plants, space travel for billionaires, etc...

Meanwhile we could not have a desalination plant for Southern California or the soon-to-go-thirsty Corpus Christi. Instead, hyperscalers want to fire up old coal plants and burn nat gas in turbines to get power for AI data centers.

Whatever happens to reduced fossil fuel usage, renewable energy, less carbon footprint, etc... ? It's all a scam.

Less carbon footprint is why we need the data centers in space, rather than on earth. Heck, with one million of them maybe there will be enough less solar radiation reaching earth that it cools the planet some. (tongue in check, somewhat).

 

[Koolau]

Less carbon footprint is why we need the data centers in space, rather than on earth. Heck, with one million of them maybe there will be enough less solar radiation reaching earth that it cools the planet some. (tongue in check, somewhat).

Less tongue in cheek and more accurate, we used to use high sulfur coal to block sunlight. But my question is: Why would carbon footprint be smaller just because the solar panels running things are in space? Gotta be cheaper to put solar panels on terra firma and store daytime energy in batteries. More carbon efficient too - considering you don't have to launch a million satellites. Or am I just whistling Dixie? This isn't my area of expertise.

 

[joesxm3]

I was thinking this morning that a lot of focus in this thread has been on the immediate revenue from Starlink and skepticism around data centers in space. But no one has mentioned that SpaceX has already merged with X.ai, That means that SpaceX stock has an AI component like OpenAI or Anthropic.

With SpaceX being first to IPO, that might give them an available capital budget lead, especially if available capital appetite makes it harder for the 3rd or 4th IPO's to raise.

 

[Davidhelp]

The high price for the stock makes me hesitant to sell my AMD and then buy SpaceX.
I would be hit with taxes on AMD and hope that SpaceX doubles in price before April 15 2027....
If the stock does not go up as hoped then I could lose half my vast fortune to taxes....

SpaceX
Listing Timeline: The confidential filing this month is intended to keep the company on track for a public listing as early as June 2026

SpaceX is targeting filing confidentially for an initial public offering as soon as next month, according to people familiar with the matter.
The company expects to submit its draft IPO registration to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in March, which would keep it on track for a June listing.

The Starbase, Texas-based firm expects to submit its draft IPO registration to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in March, the people said.
Such a move would keep it on track for a June listing, making it the first of what could be a trio of mega-IPOs, with OpenAI and Anthropic PBC potentially coming after.

---------------------------------

The exact IPO stock price for SpaceX has not been set yet, as the company is only now preparing to file its prospectus
. However, based on current market valuations and private secondary trading data as of March 25, 2026, analysts have provided the following estimates:

Estimated IPO Price Range: Analysts project the opening price could land between $700 and $1,200 per share.

This range assumes a total market valuation between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion.
Some ultra-bullish forecasts suggest the price could even approach $1,500 to $2,000 per share if demand creates a significant "day 1 premium".
Current Private Market Price: Before the official IPO, shares are trading on private secondary markets at the following rates:
Forge Global: $600.74 per share (as of March 25, 2026).
Nasdaq Private Market: Approximately $608.99 per share.
Hiive: $851.44 per share.
Valuation Benchmarks:
The most recent internal "tender offer" (where employees sell shares back to the company) was reportedly conducted at $421 per share, implying an $800 billion valuation.
The jump from the $421 private price to the estimated $700+ IPO price reflects the massive investor enthusiasm for Starlink's growth and the company's new space-based AI data center initiatives.

The final price will be determined by the underwriters—including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs—just days before the stock begins trading, which is currently targeted for June 2026
----------------------------------------------------

After 23 years, SpaceX still generates zero net earnings. To justify a $1.75 trillion market capitalization at any conventional valuation metric, the company would need to generate profits that place it among the most lucrative enterprises in American history. At the IPO price, the stock would carry a price-to-sales ratio of close to 100. That is not an investment thesis; that is a wager on a vision. The distinction matters, particularly for retail investors who may be swept up in the excitement without fully appreciating what they are buying.

 

[ferbm]

Good article on NPR "On the Daily"by Michael Barbaro discussing the upcoming IPO.

 

[joesxm3]

Good article on NPR "On the Daily"by Michael Barbaro discussing the upcoming IPO.

I copied your post and gave it to Grok AI asking it to find it and summarize. Grok thought it was a good article.

I just realized that it is ironic that Grok is part of the IPO

 

[ferbm]

I copied your post and gave it to Grok AI asking it to find it and summarize. Grok thought it was a good article.

I just realized that it is ironic that Grok is part of the IPO

Funny you should say that! I didn't have the time to read this entire thread, so I exported it and printed to my desktop as a PDF. I then uploaded it to Grok AI and asked it to summarize! In full disclosure I tried Google Gemini first, but it wanted to charge me. I use it at work and really like it, but I don't do personal stuff on my work account. Grok was happy to do the task for free.

 

[Fermion]

Funny you should say that! I didn't have the time to read this entire thread, so I exported it and printed to my desktop as a PDF. I then uploaded it to Grok AI and asked it to summarize! In full disclosure I tried Google Gemini first, but it wanted to charge me. I use it at work and really like it, but I don't do personal stuff on my work account. Grok was happy to do the task for free.

So...how far are we from just having our AI agent read the threads and comment on them, leaving us entirely out of the loop?

 

[Koolau]

So...how far are we from just having our AI agent read the threads and comment on them, leaving us entirely out of the loop?

"I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that..."

 

[MichaelB]

So, SpaceX estimated its addressable market at $28.5T. If this is accurate, a $1.75T valuation isn’t crazy. See the chart below, from the S-1.

The S-1 filing for the IPO is fascinating. The images and history alone are worth the effort. You can find it here https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm

 

[joesxm3]

The question on the large TAM is what timeframe is needed to exploit the TAM and what percentage of that TAM is SPCX likely to get.

I still keep feeling that most of the early stage massive gain has happened and the eventual long term company growth is longer than my time horizon might be as I will soon be 70.

 

[ferbm]

"I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that..."

You might be surprised how well it represents you and your views!

 

[joesxm3]

Well, it seems that the SPCX IPO mechanism is starting. Fidelity sent a letter and I just expressed interest in 400 shares at $135 per share.

Barron Funds had a new flash on their web site saying that the BPTRX NAV tonight will be updated to value their shares at $135 and some special shares also at the new value.

It will be interesting to see how many shares I end up getting. I put them in my ROTH so if I decide to try to flip some after the Fidelity 15 day period I won't trigger STCG.

I have a little BPTRX in ROTH but most is in my taxable account.

 

[Fermion]

My gut says I will be able to grab SPCX at $70 to $80 in a few months but I have been so wrong about how high the AI trade can go I am probably wrong about SPCX too and $135 will look like a genius purchase.

 

[Brat]

The SpaceX IPO is a bearish event. Too many investors liquidating to have cash to buy. I wouldn't touch it with a 10-ft pole.

 

[tulak]

I couldn't help myself and put in an order to buy 20 shares of SpaceX at IPO.

I'm skeptical that I'll get assigned shares, but at $135 * 20 = $2,700, it's not a high risk endeavor.

I'd hold these shares forever, just for the fun of it.

 

[joesxm3]

Fidelity just change the IPO rules.

Instead of needing $500,000 in the account you need $2000. Instead of a minimum 100 shares the minimum is one share.