Study: New Retirees Less Likely to Die

[Retire Soon]

According to a Dutch study, male civil service employees significantly reduced their chances of dying by retiring at age 55 because of an immediate reduction in stress:


Study: early retirees less likely to die - Encore - MarketWatch

http://papers.tinbergen.nl/13119.pdf

 

[martyp]

One of the first things I noticed and appreciated was the huge reduction in stress I experienced when deciding to retire at 55. However, I had a very high stress job and had just gone through a year of downsizing my group. I have no doubt that there are a lot of additional factors to consider regarding early retirement and longevity.

 

[ER Eddie]

So we live longer, but we don't realize it, because we get Alzheimers.

 

[Cooked]

So we live longer, but we don't realize it, because we get Alzheimers.

So we live longer, but we don't [-]realize[/-] remember it, because we get Alzheimers.

Small distinction? Time will tell.

ERE Your point is well taken. Stay active.

 

[ER Eddie]

I was just goofing around. A few months ago, we had a study that suggested early retirees were more likely to get Alzheimers. Now we have a study saying early retirees live longer.

 

[braumeister]

The study merely refers to the chance of dying in the next five years.

So the early retiree is more likely to live through the first five years of ER.
But the later retiree has already lived through those years while working, so the study has very little value IMHO. It also applies only to males, further limiting its value.

I think it's important to remember that the primary purpose of nearly all such studies is simply to make the case for follow-on studies, not to provide useful information to the public.

 

[ER Eddie]

The study merely refers to the chance of dying in the next five years.

Right, good point.

So the early retiree is more likely to live through the first five years of ER. But the later retiree has already lived through those years while working, so the study has very little value IMHO.

Well, the later retiree may not actually live through those years. The study is saying he is more likely to die before those 5 years are up.

I think that's useful info. It's not conclusive by any means, and it's only a 2.5% risk reduction, but still, it gives support to those of us who wonder about the toll our jobs take on our health. How many healthy years do we have left? Is it best to retire now, or wait a few more years?

It also applies only to males, further limiting its value.

Yes. Also, it's worth pointing out that the data aren't based on actual mortality rates but on probability of death as calculated by a statistical model that they are using (if I'm skimming it right).

Seems like they are trying to figure out whether allowing ER is going to increase their pension costs...

 

[braumeister]

Well, the later retiree may not actually live through those years. The study is saying he is more likely to die before those 5 years are up.

Not exactly, the way I read it.

The study is saying that the early retiree has a better chance of living through his first five years of retirement than the later retiree has of living through his first five years of retirement.

So the Mr. Late who retires five years later than Mr. Early has already beaten those odds by living through Mr. Early's first five years (if not, he couldn't be Mr. Late -- he'd be Mr. Dead).

The study says nothing about what happens to Mr. Early during Mr. Late's first five years.

Hence my comment that this doesn't seem to be useful information.

 

[ER Eddie]

Not exactly, the way I read it.

The study is saying that the early retiree has a better chance of living through his first five years of retirement than the later retiree has of living through his first five years of retirement.

Oh no, I don't think so. That would be terrible research design, comparing the 5-year survival rates of people who are 55 to those who are 62. Naturally, the former are going to have better survival rates than the latter; they are younger. I can't believe they'd do research with such an obvious flaw.

I think they're comparing a subgroup of workers who were eligible for ER with those who were not. That's what the abstract suggests, anyhow.

 

[ERD50]

I'm pretty sure it is 100%, regardless of whether you ER or not.

Anyone have more than one example to the contrary?

-ERD50

 

[Ronstar]

My stress level is a lot lower now that I'm no longer a part owner at work and I'm working 1 day a week. But the stress level will rise again once DW retires.