Supersaver but Investing Newbie

CautaServans

Recycles dryer sheets
Joined
Jan 23, 2026
Messages
56
Location
US
Hello, ERs!

I have been a lurker here a few times a year for a few years. (I'm a very slow, wary person.) It's a pleasure to meet you.

Personal: I am 58 years old and believe I could have retired or moved into part-time retirement about four years ago. However, I really like my job in the education sector and am concerned about being without employer-sponsored health insurance. I'm married without children. Fear is my biggest problem.

Habits: I have been a "super saver" my whole life. I save between 50-60% of my take-home pay. However, I put it into credit unions and chase CD rates, which was very challenging from about 2009-2022, and I tread water staying about .5-1% above inflation. I have bought two new cars outright and held/hold on to them for 13-17 years. My house is small and cheap, and we have owned it outright for about 14 years. I also have been a five-figure earner for most of my life, though I moved into the low six figures last year.

Goals: In 2018, I decided that I needed to invest after listening to people from the FIRE community. My family is working-class, and I never learned much about investing, though my money-saving role models are excellent! I especially liked an old podcast called "Optimal Finance Daily" and two blogs: "Mr. Money Moustache" and "The Root of Good." I decided in 2018, after getting to about 80% of my goal, that I should meet my employer's retirement representative (from TIAA), who suggested I shift from my heavy savings of after-tax dollars to putting as much as I could into my 401b and a 457b. So, I began a 10-year plan to reach my goal, but the adviser's advice allowed me to save a ton more. I also allocated 80% to equities and 20% to Traditional. Then, the stock market took off (notwithstanding some turbulence). Now, I have doubled my goal.

What I would like to learn from this community: 1. Having saved about $500k in CDs and watching the sunsetting of the good interest rates of the last several years, I have to make some decisions about moving that money into better-performing buckets. 2. After tripling my retirement account, which I reallocated in November 2025 to 70% in equities and 30% in Traditional (it had run up so much that it was 90%/10% when I checked on it), I need to decide how to allocate the money if I want to work full-time until age 61 and then go on half time for up to five years after that. Headlines are saying things that make my Depression-era grandmother's advice about keeping money safe nag at me, such as "the market is 'frothy'" and "too few companies are driving US market growth." In November 2025, I allocated about 10% of my retirement funds to international funds.

If you could direct me to some of your favorite posts/discussions about allocating retirement savings in a "frothy" environment while being three-to-six years from depending on retirement savings, I would appreciate it a lot!
 
Welcome to the forum. I used Kitces advice when retiring into the pandemic in 2020. I feel it helped me.

 
I will have to read it a few times, but this resource is exactly what I am looking for. Thanks so much!
 
I will have to read it a few times, but this resource is exactly what I am looking for. Thanks so much!
The are other ways to deal with your situation. I encourage you to google SORR strategies or sequence of return risk. There are several ways to address the risk. Kitces is just one way.

The Retirement Answer Man podcasts are a source of lots of great retirement info.

 
Welcome, and congrats on your saving success!

Have you run FIRECalc yet? How deeply have you familiarized yourself with it (reading the text on each page, trying out the different tabs, etc.)? One feature I recommend highly is the “Investigate changing my allocation” option in the Investigate tab.

There are two threats to the longevity of a portfolio that you have stopped contributing to because you retired. One is the obvious stock-market volatility, in particular the risk that a deep and long-lasting market downturn could shrink your portfolio so much within a few years after you retire that your portfolio never recovers (“sequence of returns risk,” or SORR). That’s what is making you nervous now.

But the other risk is inflation risk. Inflation has been low (or seemed to be low but that's a political topic) for a long time. You are young enough not to have experienced the last bout of major inflation in the seventies. But even those of us who are old enough to remember, but are currently financially comfortable, can find it hard to really notice it in the same way we notice stock-market crashes. We may grumble about the price of things but not feel it as a serious threat to our comfort because we have enough to pay our bills and buy our groceries.

FIRECalc’s “Investigate changing my allocation” output always shows worse results at the low end of stock allocation than the high end. I understand this as telling me that inflation risk, sneaky as it is, has historically been a bigger risk than SORR.

Like most others here, I have learned that I have no skill at timing the market. There is definitely a casino element to it, where prices make no sense because too many participants try to get rich quick at others’ expense, buying and selling without regard to fundamentals.

But staying out entirely makes you vulnerable to inflation risk. So the thing to do, IMHO, is to let FIRECalc guide you to a stock allocation that optimizes your chances of success, or is at least not too far from it, then buy the total market, plus maybe small amounts of “side bets” like foreign stock funds or some small-cap, and then just hold on through whatever the market does, except for rebalancing once a year.
 
I appreciate your encouragement to spend serious time with FIRECalc. I used it in a cursory way, but there is no way that I have explored its full assessments of different pathways.

I will read the attendant instructions and try it again.

You're exactly right that am concerned about SORR, but when I think of what my savings and CDs would be if I had invested them rather than what they are now, I get a little queasy.
 
Personal: I am 58 years old and believe I could have retired or moved into part-time retirement about four years ago. However, I really like my job in the education sector and am concerned about being without employer-sponsored health insurance. I'm married without children. Fear is my biggest problem.
Welcome. You should consider your investing time horizon, you still have 25-30 years, hopefully more for your equity investments to grow. That's a lot of time to ride out market swings.

You're exactly right that am concerned about SORR, but when I think of what my savings and CDs would be if I had invested them rather than what they are now, I get a little queasy.
The last ten years saw a lot of inflation and great stock market returns. I'd suggest you find a good Risk Tolerance Quiz and come up with an equity/bonds/cash ratio that you can live with.
 
Welcome aboard! I know what you mean when you say a little queasy looking back. However, another way to look at it is, at that point / period of time, that's what your risk appetite was that let you sleep peacefully avoiding all the market gyrations. Once you reevaluate your risk appetite now taking into consideration SORR, you need to pivot and invest accordingly. It doesn't have to be all or nothing. Since you invest 50-60% of your income, I'm safely assuming your expenses are ~50K per year. Your C balance translates to 10 years of expenses. You are planning on working for 3 more years full-time and going part time after that. Since you will be getting a paycheck for few more years, you could consider keeping maybe ~5 years worth of expenses in CD's / MM and invest the rest.
 
@CautaServans, there is nothing wrong with reading this forum to see investment advice. Some is quite good, actually. But some is not. The truth is the SGOTI (Some Guy on the Internet) cannot be counted on for reliable investment advice. Better to read what experts have written (in increasing difficulty but none are difficult:
"If You Can" by William Bernstein https://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf (free 16 page download)​
"The Coffee House Investor" by Bill Schultheis https://www.amazon.com/Coffeehouse-Investor-Wealth-Ignore-Street/dp/159184584X (This is Bill's first book; read it before reading his second one.)​
"The Bogleheads Guide to Investing" by Taylor Larimore et al https://www.amazon.com/Bogleheads-Guide-Investing-Taylor-Larimore/dp/0470067365
"Winning the Loser's Game" by Charles Ellis https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Losers-Game-Strategies-Successful-dp-1264258461/dp/1264258461 (latest edition, May 2021)​

These are, IMO, excellent launching points for study. "If You Can," for example provides an excellent reading list on its own. Here is some of the wisdom I have been given over 50+ years of investing:

Never (never!) buy anything you don't understand.​
There is no magic and there is no secret sauce.​
The more complicated an investment product is, the more likely it is that it was designed to make money for the seller, not to make money for you.​
Successful investing is boring. If you're not bored, you're doing it wrong.​
Warren Buffett: "Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell." ... "Lethargy, bordering on sloth should remain the cornerstone of an investment style."​
Buffett again: “The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say ‘no’ to almost everything.”​
 
[snip]

FIRECalc’s “Investigate changing my allocation” output always shows worse results at the low end of stock allocation than the high end. I understand this as telling me that inflation risk, sneaky as it is, has historically been a bigger risk than SORR.
[snip]
I played a bit with FireCalc this afternoon, and it looks a lot like the plan that my TIAA adivser mocked up for me. I'm so glad that you told me about the tabs. It's awesome how it keeps your information and builds out different things to try. I wonder about my risk tolerance. Now that I have doubled the amount I set as a goal seven years ago, I can't really cry about what I should have done. I also have seen how amazing it is to invest money before taxes that otherwise would have been lost to taxes, watch it grow without being taxed for 25 years, and then have it be lightly taxes when it's time to live off of it. There's no way I am going to need as much as the 403b says it can pay out. So, these things together are making me consider being a little bolder than I have been. I still get nervous!

Personal note: I was eight years into my first real job in 2008 and two weeks before Lehman Brothers fell, I had opened a $35K mutual fund and watched it drop 33% over that year. I had heard about runs on banks over the summer and thought that investing it would be smarter than leaving it in a bank. I took it out when it recovered to $32.5K and just stuck with CDs. It is scary when it happens.
 
Welcome aboard! I know what you mean when you say a little queasy looking back. However, another way to look at it is, at that point / period of time, that's what your risk appetite was that let you sleep peacefully avoiding all the market gyrations. Once you reevaluate your risk appetite now taking into consideration SORR, you need to pivot and invest accordingly. It doesn't have to be all or nothing. Since you invest 50-60% of your income, I'm safely assuming your expenses are ~50K per year. Your C balance translates to 10 years of expenses. You are planning on working for 3 more years full-time and going part time after that. Since you will be getting a paycheck for few more years, you could consider keeping maybe ~5 years worth of expenses in CD's / MM and invest the rest.
Thanks for the warm welcome!

You are exactly right. My actual living expenses are about $30K/year household. My spouse also works but trusts investing even less than I do and has everything in CDs and traditional funds. He has about half of what I have saved.

I love the idea of having enough saved to reach retirement without working. The FIRE community is great because the planning creates a set-up where if retirement finds us in an unwelcomed way, we can feel okay.

The education/research sector is uncertain these days. I watched my dad who was an industrial photographer, lose his job in the early 1980s. My mom, an RN, went back to work and saved the family. My dad never really earned a full salary again, though he worked when he could. Ever since I got a job, I have been preparing for it to evaporate. I thought the public sector was low-paying but stable, and it has been until recently. I feel 100% prepared if I lost my job tomorrow, even with the high expenses in medical insurance. So, that is a good thing. Maybe I should just keep my CD money treading water and be a little more risky with my 401b/457b.
 
Welcome. You should consider your investing time horizon, you still have 25-30 years, hopefully more for your equity investments to grow. That's a lot of time to ride out market swings.

Just that above portion is quite a reality check for me. I am thinking I am more than half the way to death rather than a career away from it. You're right to put it like that because if I die earlier, I won't need money. If I last that long, I will have time to weather a correction.

I need to look more at what people who are going for "die with zero" are doing. I have a niece and nephew I would like to help out, but I would rather do it while I am alive and then leave them the house or something. Legacy planning is not a priority for me.
 
Let me add my "welcome to the Forum." It sounds to me that you have have most of the elements in place for a successful Early Retirement.

You can make the financial part of the process as complicated or as uncomplicated as you desire. It sounds like you have a stellar "Emergency Fund" already in CDs. You should have enough to weather almost any financial storm or any reasonable amount of time on an ACA medical insurance plan if you choose to retire soon.

As far as your growth funds in TIAA, I've always been into diversity. I like a base of USA stocks but also a portion in stocks that don't depend on the USA (I think my Vanguard account calls is something like "World ex US"). It could be that simple and you'd be invested in most of the major stocks in the world. That's pretty diverse.

Keep your expense ratios as low as possible (I do it with index funds rather than boutique type funds with huge expense ratios - some exceeding 1%).

If you have specific questions, we're here to help - but do keep in mind that we're not professionals and have only our own experience to share.

All the best to you. I think you are doing very well indeed.
 
In TIAA, there is a category called "Traditional" that guarantees 3% and offers additional, depending on how the funds go. They never give returns like the 16% I got last year, but they don't drop. I have about 30% of my 403b and 457b in those funds. The rest are in equities.
 
Let me add my "welcome to the Forum." It sounds to me that you have have most of the elements in place for a successful Early Retirement.

[snip]

As far as your growth funds in TIAA, I've always been into diversity. I like a base of USA stocks but also a portion in stocks that don't depend on the USA (I think my Vanguard account calls is something like "World ex US"). It could be that simple and you'd be invested in most of the major stocks in the world. That's pretty diverse.

[snip]
Thanks for your warm welcome and good advice. I have a very small Schwab account (12K), and now that I feel like everything is kind of topped off in terms of automated contributions, anything extra will go into Schwab. A quick search shows that one of their products for international stocks is "SWISX." So, maybe I can dollar-cost-average some extra into that and build it a little.

Do you have suggestions about the order of drawing down once I retire? Should I start with an annuity, my retirement funds, or my CDs? I'm done contributing more to CDs, but I have it in my budget to pay their taxes and always reinvest the full 4-5.5% back into them.
 
First - Welcome to this forum. While we do not offer financial advice in the legal sense, we do offer opinions based on many years of experience with no expectation of personal gain.

That said my suggestion is to read my thread on certain alternative investments here -

Unfortunately perhaps due to interest, this thread has grown to around 26 pages and would likely take hours to digest. If your time is limited you might want to focus on my posts as they are mostly in the vein of a teacher. Reading the attachments are also important and many questions one might have are answered if the reader can wade through these.

The bottom line is that today most institutions and high net worth individuals allocate around 20% or more of their portfolios to alternative investments. The simple reason for this is they work by either increasing total return or reducing risk or both to an existing portfolio.

Until recently liquid alternatives with decent performance were not generally available to the individual investor. But today you no longer need to be a qualified investor in a hedge fund to access a few good liquid alternative funds.

So my advice is read and then decide if the ideas make sense to you.

Cheers, Dennis
 
So my advice is read and then decide if the ideas make sense to you.
WADR, @CautaServans, I strongly differ with @Semi-Retyrd on the value of that thread to you. It is long and complex. At your stage of investing knowledge the best that can come of it is you will get confused and, worse, come to believe that "complex" is a necessary investing style. It's not. In my 50+ years of investing experience, I have come to understand that complex is usually a road to failure. Don't let it be you.
 
WADR, @CautaServans, I strongly differ with @Semi-Retyrd on the value of that thread to you. It is long and complex. At your stage of investing knowledge the best that can come of it is you will get confused and, worse, come to believe that "complex" is a necessary investing style. It's not. In my 50+ years of investing experience, I have come to understand that complex is usually a road to failure. Don't let it be you.
I agree with OS on this one.
With the OP's background, I'm thinking broad stock index funds will be the best way to invest at this time...
 
It's a TIAA thing. There are two types. There are fully liquid funds, which are essentially stable-value funds. And there are ones that you cannot cash out of, but must instead annuitize.
In most cases nowadays, you are not forced to annuitize your "restricted" TIAA Traditional.
But .....it's entirely possible that a particular institution could write that into their employer contract.

In my case, I annuitized a considerable amount with TIAA back in 2013 and it pays a bit more than double my SS benefit each month.

I have a few small restricted TIAA Traditional holdings that I'm exiting over a nine year period using something called a Transfer Payout Annuity.
This money stays in my TIAA 403(b) but I move it into stock index funds...
 
In most cases nowadays, you are not forced to annuitize your "restricted" TIAA Traditional.
But .....it's entirely possible that a particular institution could write that into their employer contract.

In my case, I annuitized a considerable amount with TIAA back in 2013 and it pays a bit more than double my SS benefit each month.

I have a few small restricted TIAA Traditional holdings that I'm exiting over a nine year period using something called a Transfer Payout Annuity.
This money stays in my TIAA 403(b) but I move it into stock index funds...

You are right, of course. I was indeed thinking of the 9-year transfer payout, which I conflated with annuitizing.
 
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