Tariff relief rally

[ERD50]

Wow! Thank you so much for sharing your insight and prediction with us.

What, you don't trust the predictions of a trader who is trailing a buy & hold investor in their own contest?

Pssssst..... "contrary indicator"?

-ERD50

 

[braumeister]

What makes you think my comment wasn't sincere?

After all, nunnun is stagnating in seventh place, while Boho has rocketed all the way up to #27.

 

[MichaelB]

After all, nunnun is stagnating in seventh place, while Boho has rocketed all the way up to #27.

You could work for CNBC.

 

[Boho]

I buy as soon as I see a good deal which often means the stock hasn't bottomed out yet, so it goes lower before it goes higher. I was in the middle of the pack before my recent trades. Being down now doesn't mean anything. If I'm not in the middle again within a month or two, I'd be surprised. I should be in the top half within 3 months.

 

[ERD50]

I buy as soon as I see a good deal which often means the stock hasn't bottomed out yet, so it goes lower before it goes higher. I was in the middle of the pack before my recent trades. Being down now doesn't mean anything. If I'm not in the middle again within a month or two, I'd be surprised. I should be in the top half within 3 months.

Leave the excuses/rationalizations for the contest thread.

" Being down now doesn't mean anything." Yes it does!

"I should be in the top half within 3 months." And that is supposed to mean something? Why would 3 months from now be meaningful, and now means nothing?

I might let you get by with "the only thing that matters is March 29, 2020", when the contest ends. But even if volatility takes you to the top at the end ( a possibility, just due to the nature of non-diversification and/or leverage), I really don't think too many will be impressed if you lagged for much/most of the contest.

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

At the moment there are at least 26 people who I would rely on for investing predictions more than you.

https://www.investopedia.com/simulator/ranking/?RGID=382122

 

[Boho]

"I should be in the top half within 3 months." And that is supposed to mean something? Why would 3 months from now be meaningful, and now means nothing?

Because I recently bought, when I was in the middle of the pack, betting on a good trade deal, and there's a particular time frame involved before we know the results of the bet for sure. I actually think most people would agree that a deal is likely. My portfolio is industrials-heavy, mostly with index funds. What do YOU predict will happen with my portfolio at the end of the trade talks? I posted exactly what I have in the contest thread a few days ago.

 

[SecondCor521]

Because I recently bought, when I was in the middle of the pack, betting on a good trade deal, and there's a particular time frame involved before we know the results of the bet for sure. I actually think most people would agree that a deal is likely. My portfolio is industrials-heavy, mostly with index funds. What do YOU predict will happen with my portfolio at the end of the trade talks? I posted exactly what I have in the contest thread a few days ago.

(Sorry, Free bird.)

Since you edged into a Socratic question, let me offer you a few:

How many people with the ability to trade US stocks in real life have an opinion on whether or not a trade deal will happen?
How likely is it that, since real money is involved, those people bought or sold industrials in anticipation of a trade deal (or no trade deal, or the myriad of variations)?
Would those people buying and selling those industrials affect the price of the stock?
How likely is it that those people bought and sold before you did?

My answer to your question is: they'll perform about average. The reason for my answerto your question is in the answers to my questions, which are: Lots, very, yes, and very.

 

[ERD50]

... What do YOU predict will happen with my portfolio at the end of the trade talks? ....

Ditto to SecondCor521, plus:

I don't make predictions on the market, or on sectors.

Here's what I do know - we may not be able to define the "end of the trade talks". I suspect there will always be another shoe to drop, it's not just one thing, it's complex. I think you are misguided to assume 3 months is particularly meaningful. And as SecondCor521 alluded, this is baked in already.

And there are many, many other things affecting the market. No way to say that "the trade talks" will be the major mover over the next few months. We don't know what we don't know.

My observation on the contest is the same as it ever was. I expect that some traders will do better than the market, some will do worse. Maybe a few will be very, very close. I would not bet for, or against any individual, just too much possible variation in there.

But if you had any real, meaningful, skills to this, you would have moved ahead and stayed there, not flopped around like a fish out of water.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

But if you had any real, meaningful, skills to this, you would have moved ahead and stayed there, not flopped around like a fish out of water.

I'd like a measure of how much I flopped compared to others. I may make a graph or something eventually. First I want links indexing all the monthly results that were posted.

 

[ERD50]

I'd like a measure of how much I flopped compared to others. I may make a graph or something eventually. First I want links indexing all the monthly results that were posted.

Take it to the [-]contest[/-] excuse thread, this is about the Tariff Relief Rally.

Back there, I posted what I had.

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

For those who are interested and to encourage the Boho conversation to move to a more appropriate thread, here's the [-]contest[/-] excuse thread being referenced:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/stock-picking-beat-boho-contest-v2-0-a-86109.html

I know ERD50 and Boho and I can find it, but this is for those who may not be familiar with the allusion, and or for posterity in a few years when we can't remember what we were talking about.

 

[Boho]

Bloomberg, December 14, 2018:

"If the Fed predictor proves accurate and Santa Claus skips Wall Street, it’d be the first time since 2010 that the economy grew by 3 percent and the S&P 500 fell at least 10 percent in the same quarter.

"'It is obvious that the economy is not falling apart nearly as quickly as the markets are implying,' said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research."

I'm looking for a rally after hours or Monday. I'm betting on after hours.

 

[audreyh1]

So back to the Tariff Relief rally......not!

 

[Boho]

I'm looking for a rally after hours or Monday. I'm betting on after hours.

I'm winning.

 

[COcheesehead]

Just saw a good chart from Bespoke. Bad Q4's beget worse Q1's. A year later things usually look better, but they get a whole lot worse in between.