TheWizard
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Careful. Some folks use recent value ANCHORING to figure ups and downs...Will you still take the $25K from portfolio option 2 if you are down 10% when the time comes?
Careful. Some folks use recent value ANCHORING to figure ups and downs...Will you still take the $25K from portfolio option 2 if you are down 10% when the time comes?
Yes I would. And I would not take more than 2.5% per year when markets are up more than 10%. Or at all.Will you still take the $25K from portfolio option 2 if you are down 10% when the time comes?
Getting back to my confusion about all this..........The good news: I know exactly how much I'm going to be paid April 1st:
I view it as the same, whether the recent portfolio value is $500k, $1M or $2M. 10% of that is $50k, $100K or $200K. If it was me, I would struggle to withdraw on the first, very concerned on the second, and a bit uneasy on the 3rd. Did you mean something different?Careful. Some folks use recent value ANCHORING to figure ups and downs...
So you have other sources of income, or you can live (presumably in the US) on $25k? Show me your ways.Yes I would. And I would not take more than 2.5% per year when markets are up more than 10%. Or at all.
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I have other sources of income. I haven't started drawing on my investment portfolio yet, probably never will. My example in post #120 was using round numbers for an example.So you have other sources of income, or you can live (presumably in the US) on $25k? Show me your ways.
Would it be fair to think of this method as the inverse of dollar cost averaging? In other words, during your working years you DCA'd into the fund, buying when the fund is up and also when the fund is down, and then during retirement you IDCA out of the fund, selling when the fund is up and also when the fund is down.Option 3 can be invested in the SP500 or another fund.
Set up a auto monthly sell on a specific day for a specific amount for months/years.
You just created a reliable monthly income similar to higher income funds.
The only 2 questions for the future: what is the TR and/or what is the risk-adjusted returns?
The daily fluctuations or selling shares don't matter, just the above two.
I don't like the above, I sell when I need to.
Very nice position to be in!I have other sources of income. I haven't started drawing on my investment portfolio yet, probably never will. My example in post #120 was using round numbers for an example.
If you have a "portfolio" then you should have some low beta. That is not at all at odds with total return investing. Mine consists of short term laddered bonds, selected equities including drugs, low beta tech, gas utilities, telecom and some cash.Would it be fair to think of this method as the inverse of dollar cost averaging? In other words, during your working years you DCA'd into the fund, buying when the fund is up and also when the fund is down, and then during retirement you IDCA out of the fund, selling when the fund is up and also when the fund is down.
Anyway, I think it's sort of academic, as even those who call themselves total return investors generally turn to the portion of their portfolio allocated to some safe, low-volatility investment(s) to draw from for spending during a downturn. I suspect virtually nobody actually plans to rely entirely on selling depreciated stock during a downturn.
Many investors who believe in income use higher dividends stocks and leveraged FI CEFs.Would it be fair to think of this method as the inverse of dollar cost averaging? In other words, during your working years you DCA'd into the fund, buying when the fund is up and also when the fund is down, and then during retirement you IDCA out of the fund, selling when the fund is up and also when the fund is down.
Anyway, I think it's sort of academic, as even those who call themselves total return investors generally turn to the portion of their portfolio allocated to some safe, low-volatility investment(s) to draw from for spending during a downturn. I suspect virtually nobody actually plans to rely entirely on selling depreciated stock during a downturn.
Many investors who believe in income use higher dividends stocks and leveraged FI CEFs.
They claim these 2 choices are better regardless of TR.
In the meltdown of 2020, QQQ lost less than IBM (higher div) and less than PDI.
See SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Then, 2022 happened and we learned that "safe" typical bonds can lose a lot too.
And that lead me to my final conclusion: the only thing that matters are performance and for many risk-adjusted return. Higher distributions don't guarantee better performance or volatility.
That's the idea.Meanwhile in the selloff of 2022 QQQ lost 32%. SCHD lost 3%.
It's a little odd how you keep taking the most extremes and worst examples from income investing and using them to make your case. The ironic part is you yourself are tecnically an income investor as you mainly use a bond fund.
The above are all speculation.Discipline in capital spending/expenditure.
All else being equal, companies that pay dividends have to have more discipline in how they spend money. Hypothetical examples:
Company A: Worth $100. You own 5% of it as passive investor. Has $10 in income (after all expenditures for the whole year). To keep things simple, lets assume it issues all income as dividends.
Company B: Worth $100. You own 5% of it as passive investor. Has $10 in income. Company B gives higher %of stock based compensation to its executives. To control the dilution, it buys back its own stocks with $10.
I understand these are very high level generalizations, but you can take a look at all the shenanigans' happening at Mega cap tech companies in silicon valley that barely pay any dividends and games they play with Stock based compensation to enrich their executives.
There are bad apples in both scenarios. There are companies that are playing the dividend games even though they are not growing and their revenues are declining. Those are the dividends based companies you want to avoid.
But point is - companies that have growing revenues and pay significant dividends, have less maneuvering to enrich their executives at the expense of shareholders.
Mega cap tech companies playing the Stock based compensation game (and not counting that as expenses) is not speculation.The above are all speculation.
Your best assumption could be off next month, year, on not in the next 5 years.
High dividend is an old school philosophy. Several decades ago, think the 50-60s, maybe 70s, a healthy company paid dividends. Then the tech revolution started and these companies had better use for this money, such as R&D, or stock options, or buybacks.
These companies stocks made a lot more.
The world is a lot more connected and sophisticated
Someone in London may post something about
a higher div company and it's price will dive 20% regardless of your opinion. The opposite can be true too.
If stock prices were rational, we all would know exactly what to buy.
A lot of charges here, no actual data though.Mega cap tech companies playing the Stock based compensation game (and not counting that as expenses) is not speculation.
Just like big tech AI infra companies buying stuff from each other and investing in each other to keep the AI hype cycle going is not speculation either.
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Just an example (there are many more in the tech world)
Tesla's revenues have been declining, yet stock is at elevated levels. Tesla's 2025 Stock based compensation surged over 41% to over $2.8 billion.
As of early 2026, Tesla’s (TSLA) P/E ratio is extremely high due to lower earnings, with headline P/E hovering around 369-381. When adjusting for non-recurring items or adding back stock-based compensation (SBC), the valuation is in range 240-280.
And I didn't say high dividend paying companies are better. Or the other way round. Just that companies that don't pay dividends, often use that money with less constraints and a good chunk ends up in top level executives pockets via stock based comp. Relatively.
I have other sources of income. I haven't started drawing on my investment portfolio yet, probably never will. My example in post #120 was using round numbers
Most solid dividend companies are established wide moat household names. Their growth days are in the rear view mirror. They are highly profitable and compensate their executives and shareholders because they have “won the game”. Hopefully, most growth companies pile their revenues back into the company, and that is reflected in share price, like NVIDIA. I am sure their CEO is also well compensated. It doesn’t have to be “either or”.Discipline in capital spending/expenditure.
All else being equal, companies that pay dividends have to have more discipline in how they spend money. Hypothetical examples:
Company A: Worth $100. You own 5% of it as passive investor. Has $10 in income (after all expenditures for the whole year). To keep things simple, lets assume it issues all income as dividends.
Company B: Worth $100. You own 5% of it as passive investor. Has $10 in income. Company B gives higher %of stock based compensation to its executives. To control the dilution, it buys back its own stocks with $10.
I understand these are very high level generalizations, but you can take a look at all the shenanigans' happening at Mega cap tech companies in silicon valley that barely pay any dividends and games they play with Stock based compensation to enrich their executives.
There are bad apples in both scenarios. There are companies that are playing the dividend games even though they are not growing and their revenues are declining. Those are the dividends based companies you want to avoid.
But point is - companies that have growing revenues and pay significant dividends, have less maneuvering to enrich their executives at the expense of shareholders.
VUG=growth companies compared to VTV=VALUE have...Most solid dividend companies are established wide moat household names. Their growth days are in the rear view mirror. They are highly profitable and compensate their executives and shareholders because they have “won the game”. Hopefully, most growth companies pile their revenues back into the company, and that is reflected in share price, like NVIDIA. I am sure their CEO is also well compensated. It doesn’t have to be “either or”.
My comment was to @yhoomajor focused on companies that pay dividends or not, and unscrupulous companies that don’t pay dividends so they can overcompensate their CEOs. My point was there can be good growth companies like NVIDIA that have highly compensated CEOS but also return shareholder value in share price, along with well established companies (what you call value) that return shareholder value in dividends because their products or services are profitable with high market share.VUG=growth companies compared to VTV=VALUE have...
Higher moat
Better financial health, growth and profitability.
All an investor should care which index will make her more money in 5-10-20 years.
If she can't decide, the SP500 is a good compromise. It is tilting growth. The index is based correctly on the price because it makes sense.
The price is the best indication of success, not the dividends.
There is a good reason that Bogle built Vanguard based on that and Buffett recommended it too.
VUG=growth companies compared to VTV=VALUE have...
Higher moat
Better financial health, growth and profitability.
All an investor should care which index will make her more money in 5-10-20 years.
If she can't decide, the SP500 is a good compromise. It is tilting growth. The index is based correctly on the price because it makes sense.
The price is the best indication of success, not the dividends.
There is a good reason that Bogle built Vanguard based on that and Buffett recommended it too.