Tesla Model 3

[Ready]

My last thread on the Tesla Model 3 got political and the mods shut it down, so I thought I'd start a new one. Hopefully we can just stick to the car and keep the politics out of it.

If you've been following the news, Tesla has still only made about 220 Model 3's even though they were supposed to be cranking out something like 5,000 per week by December. The latest news is that they will not reach that production level until March 2018.

I received a note from Tesla notifying me that my delivery date would be delayed. But the new date seems just as unrealistic as the previous date. My date window went from Dec-February to Jan-March. I know there are about 150,000 people ahead of me, so this seems pretty far fetched to think I'm going to have a car by March.

My original motivation to buy the Tesla was twofold: 1) I wanted the carpool lane sticker to make my commute to LA easier, and 2) I wanted the $7,500 federal tax credit.

I left my job in August so I no longer have a commute and rarely find myself in traffic on the freeway any more. And now the proposed tax bill eliminates the EV tax credit as of January 1. While the bill is preliminary, if it passes I no longer see any benefit to this car and will likely just cancel it, or maybe sell my position if that's even possible.

If the tax bill does not eliminate the tax credit, I probably will just go ahead with the purchase. But I'm not feeling quite as excited about the delivery as I was when I was working and would have been able to use the carpool lane.

In any case, I feel like Elon Musk continues to overpromise and under deliver.

Anyone else waiting for their Model 3 to deliver?

 

[ERD50]

If the laws don't change, would you get the credit if you have 150,000 ahead of you? I know they reduce the credit each quarter (?) after some thousand sales target is hit.

I thought I read they need to get another line going to hit 10,000/week, they are stuck at 5,000 max currently (and not hitting that). The math says ~ 30 weeks wait for you if they got to 5,000 now. And from what I've read, and past promises, that seems unlikely, so ~ May if they hit 5,000 now, and that seems optimistic? Unless they really get another line up and running and producing.

It's tough to ramp production, and Tesla is pushing the envelope in so many ways, and is new at this, so I don't think the delays are that surprising. But it does seem Musk has been was over promising on this for a while. Some of the reviews I read of the earnings call were pretty brutal.

Have you found out if you can sell your reservation? It might be worth something if it is still expected to see some credit, but it sounded fuzzy if they were transferable?

Good luck, whatever you decide.

-ERD50

 

[jazz4cash]

My understanding was that each OEM was limited to 200,000 tax credits/year, so it seems dicey to rely on a tax credit with the combined volume of model S,X and 3 and the number of orders ahead of you. Here is the text from an IRS webpage (note the use of the words cumulative and at least):

The credit begins to phase out for a manufacturer’s vehicles when at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009). For additional information see Notice 2009-89.

 

[aja8888]

Reading an article on Jalopnik last week about Model 3 problems indicated that there are many (summary below):

Batteries - Gigafactory deliveries are not up to par due to trouble getting raw materials.

Labor relations in the assembly plant is bad and the union forces are circling the wagons. Plus, the many employee firings have set off complaints with the NLRB and others.

Article also mentioned issues getting qualified employees as Tesla is a low paying plant.

Musk also stated the plant will be able to produce 500,000 cars per year and that may be a pipe dream. The plant never made more than 1/2 that number in its best days. Also, the production rate bottleneck is the paint shop capacity and another paint line will cost Billions which they (Tesla) don't have readily available. Plus, any major plant expansion would take many months.

Musk unveiled the car without having proven vendor tooling and that was a big mistake. Apparently, he was thinking of short cutting the tooling proving step and go straight into production with pilot line type tools. This has proven to be a big headache, quality wise.

Putting all this negative stuff together is making deliveries of a quality product in a reasonable time frame a low probability.

Good luck with your Model 3 whenever it gets produced. If I had a "position", I would try to sell it and get my deposit money back and buy a clean used one if they ever make enough of them and the quality is confirmed.

 

[Sunset]

We have found without driving to work, our driving has dropped a lot.
We basically put miles on the vehicle when going on a long trip of a few thousand miles. That is where I have come to appreciate a big vehicle with lots of space for stuff.
Currently I have a van.

So my thinking has changed, and while I won't buy a 8 mpg Hummer, I'm fine with getting a big pickup with hauling capacity to pull a trailer, even if it means I get just 20 mpg when not pulling a trailer.

I did look at the Tesla but couldn't see how I'd recoup the cost in gas savings by any stretch of the imagination, and I didn't like the fake way they restrict battery usage unless you pony up for the longer range (but you are still driving around the bigger battery). It made me wonder what other restrictions they placed unless you upgraded.

 

[ERD50]

... I didn't like the fake way they restrict battery usage unless you pony up for the longer range (but you are still driving around the bigger battery). It made me wonder what other restrictions they placed unless you upgraded.

Why would that concern you? AFAIAC, as long as I get what I'm paying for, I don't care if other capabilities are built in but disabled.

Manufacturers do that a lot. It's often cheaper to build a common product, and just turn features on/off. Buyer A gets what they wanted for $X, buyer B gets more and pays more.

You probably own a lot of products like that, and don't even know about it.

For the Tesla battery example, I assume they find that some significant % decide to upgrade later, or maybe a second owner would want to upgrade. Easier to flip a software switch than replace a battery pack.

-ERD50

 

[Ready]

My understanding was that each OEM was limited to 200,000 tax credits/year, so it seems dicey to rely on a tax credit with the combined volume of model S,X and 3 and the number of orders ahead of you. Here is the text from an IRS webpage (note the use of the words cumulative and at least):

The credit begins to phase out for a manufacturer’s vehicles when at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009). For additional information see Notice 2009-89.

I think the catch with this is that after they sell the 200,000th unit, every additional car they sell during that quarter would still be eligible for the full $7,500 rebate. Tesla had been telling me that I'm very likely to get the full rebate based on this. But now, the delay may cause them to sell enough S and X models to change the scenario to where this may no longer apply.

 

[Chuckanut]

IMHO, the Tesla Model 3 still partially falls into the realm of a car for Enthusiasts (people who read Road and Track for example). Like art, one buys it for many reasons that are not financial - personal joy it brings you, bragging rights, etc. In other words, I would not yet buy the car if financial issues were a major key reason to buy it.

My 2¢. Take what you wish and leave the rest.

 

[Sunset]

Why would that concern you? AFAIAC, as long as I get what I'm paying for, I don't care if other capabilities are built in but disabled.

Manufacturers do that a lot. It's often cheaper to build a common product, and just turn features on/off. Buyer A gets what they wanted for $X, buyer B gets more and pays more.

You probably own a lot of products like that, and don't even know about it.

For the Tesla battery example, I assume they find that some significant % decide to upgrade later, or maybe a second owner would want to upgrade. Easier to flip a software switch than replace a battery pack.

-ERD50

It bugs me as they are really charging me extra, making the car more expensive than needed so that it is easier for them.

In this case Buyer A with the "small" battery actually pays for the larger battery as a smaller batter would be cheaper to produce, since these things are very very expensive to make this extra cost is not free, so Buyer A is really paying for something they don't get.

Then Buyer A has to drive around this heavier battery, which is like a tax as you get less mileage due to the extra un-needed weight, so you need to charge more often.

A smaller battery would cost less probably $5K less, and to manage 2 different cell counts in a battery box would add no more cost to production, as its like having other different options like paint color available.

 

[ponyboy]

elon musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I think he's a scam artist. He promises all these amazing things yet his company is doing so poorly...always losing money.

I believe electric cars are the future but not from this guy...although I think the teslas are awesome...I wouldnt buy one.

 

[aja8888]

elon musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I think he's a scam artist. He promises all these amazing things yet his company is doing so poorly...always losing money.

I believe electric cars are the future but not from this guy...although I think the teslas are awesome...I wouldnt buy one.

Musk certainly knows how to use other people's money in his ventures. Good for him and his Tesla venture, even though it may well be a failure once the smoke and mirrors clear up. This has sparked an interest in electric cars and all sorts of new technology. That's a good thing!

One thing to remember is that many manufacturers with very deep pockets are building very desirable electric cars and with a reliable warranty and repair system, something Tesla has not developed. And these cars are currently available and in direct competition with Tesla.

If Tesla fails, they may be bought out by another manufacturer to continue the series or end up like DeLorean's folly.

 

[ERD50]

It bugs me as they are really charging me extra, making the car more expensive than needed so that it is easier for them.

In this case Buyer A with the "small" battery actually pays for the larger battery as a smaller batter would be cheaper to produce, since these things are very very expensive to make this extra cost is not free, so Buyer A is really paying for something they don't get.

Then Buyer A has to drive around this heavier battery, which is like a tax as you get less mileage due to the extra un-needed weight, so you need to charge more often.

A smaller battery would cost less probably $5K less, and to manage 2 different cell counts in a battery box would add no more cost to production, as its like having other different options like paint color available.

Yes, but I just don't think that is the right way to look at it.

They tell you you will get X kWh capacity. They tell you you will get Y mile range on a charge. They set the price at $Z.

You accept that and put down your money, or you don't. So OK, you don't like their design and marketing decisions, I get that. But every mfg does that by bundling options I don't want with ones I do. You just gotta make a choice.

 

[ERD50]

elon musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I think he's a scam artist. He promises all these amazing things yet his company is doing so poorly...always losing money.

I believe electric cars are the future but not from this guy...although I think the teslas are awesome...I wouldnt buy one.

Musk certainly knows how to use other people's money in his ventures. Good for him and his Tesla venture, even though it may well be a failure once the smoke and mirrors clear up. This has sparked an interest in electric cars and all sorts of new technology. That's a good thing!
...

I am not convinced that it is a good thing, and in fact have reasons to believe that it isn't.

However, that is not the subject of this thread and will certainly derail it from the topic of the OP, which was simply about the delivery schedule and logistics of the tax credit. So I will stop there - if you want me to discuss further, I will respond if you start a new thread (unless OP doesn't care).

-ERD50

 

[Sunset]

Yes, but I just don't think that is the right way to look at it.

They tell you you will get X kWh capacity. They tell you you will get Y mile range on a charge. They set the price at $Z.

You accept that and put down your money, or you don't. So OK, you don't like their design and marketing decisions, I get that. But every mfg does that by bundling options I don't want with ones I do. You just gotta make a choice.

It is true, I don't like their design and marketing decisions, and I do consider their single battery decision to be a design flaw of the car, probably driven by a marketing idea.

From a marketing view it's brilliant as you can pressure the buyer to "upgrade" for years and the "upgrade" costs the company $0. The only issue to the marketing idea is it should have remained hidden so picky folks like me would still buy.

I also hate the bundling of products where you cannot choose what is in the bundle which lots of auto dealers do, along with some cable tv providers. I hate it because you can be sure they add in each thing with a cost, then knock x% off (maybe), and I end up with stuff I don't want/use that often is in the way, and I paid for it.

That is why I won't by a Tesla, and I'm betting they will turn to real different sized batteries as soon as they get past the enthusiast buyers and have to compete with current auto makers turning out electric cars.

 

[JoeWras]

The car industry is famous for this idea of building a common subsystem, but not allowing you access to it.

"delete plates" for missing switches used to be very common on cars. They've gotten more subtle these days.

In the software world, most software is shipped with everything. It is always there, just waiting for a sales person to upsell someone and turn it on.

I agree that a heavier battery that can't be used is a sketchy idea, but it is pretty much the way engineering is going these days. As an engineer, I blame marketing for pressuring me to to do it.

 

[Chuckanut]

Apparently somebody thinks the Model 3 is worth taking a look at:

https://electrek.co/2018/01/27/tesla-model-3-germany-reverse-engineered/

Two Tesla Model 3 vehicles were spotted in air freight inbound for Germany – presumably to be reverse-engineered.

The images were shared with the hashtag “Leipzig”, which is a hub for BMW in Germany, but there’s also a DHL sticker referencing Stuttgart, which is home to Mercedes-Benz and Porsche.

 

[6miths]

I'm sure that this is the first time that this has every happened.

 

[W2R]

Retirement can make a huge difference in driving habits and needs.

Some of us find that we do not put many miles on our cars in retirement. Last year I spent a total of $438 on gasoline for the whole year. Somehow the thought of owning a Tesla just doesn't excite me much. YMMV (literally!)

If there really is a big demand for Tesla Model 3's in the general public, that goes beyond Tesla's motivation to create that perception, then this type of reverse engineering would be a smart decision on the part of other car manufacturers. But to me that seems like a big "if". I don't know anybody in real life who would even consider buying a Tesla despite all the marketing efforts.

 

[rodi]

There's a tesla dealership at the mall near me. They have a Model 3 available to "view" - but no test drives. There are still no cars being delivered locally.

 

[Chuckanut]

"if". I don't know anybody in real life who would even consider buying a Tesla despite all the marketing efforts.

Interesting how this varies.

On my block of about 40 homes, there were three Tesla owners. One moved away, but now another couple is waiting for their Model 3. Not a huge number, but not insignificant either.

The electric charging slots in the local Super-Duper-Mega-Market parking area used to be empty 90% of the time. Now about 1/2 are almost always occupied in the day. More on weekends.

 

[W2R]

There's a tesla dealership at the mall near me. They have a Model 3 available to "view" - but no test drives. There are still no cars being delivered locally.

I have only seen 1, maybe 2 Tesla's of any model here in New Orleans, and I think it (or both?) had California plates. Probably Mardi Gras tourists. It just doesn't seem to float anybody's boat here. No Tesla dealerships that I have seen although there could be one, I suppose. (EDIT: Nope, I just checked, none here.) Many here earn their living from oil & gas.

 

[RobbieB]

I feel for you.

I'm in line for a Elio and they've been stalling for 2 years now. I got played.

 

[NW-Bound]

Apparently somebody thinks the Model 3 is worth taking a look at:

https://electrek.co/2018/01/27/tesla-model-3-germany-reverse-engineered/

It's just prudent that any business will watch out for competition. They may look at that sample to see if they can do the same for $35K, because if that becomes real, it's the new baseline that they will have to match.

I don't see anything in a Tesla that is not doable by any car maker. It's only the high cost of EV that keeps them from getting popular. The Model S has been sold to enthusiasts who say "price be damned". Inexpensive EVs for the masses are something else.

 

[aja8888]

It's just prudent that any business will watch out for competition. They may look at that sample to see if they can do the same for $35K, because if that becomes real, it's the new baseline that they will have to match.

I don't see anything in a Tesla that is not doable by any car maker. It's only the high cost of EV that keeps them from getting popular. The Model S has been sold to enthusiasts who say "price be damned". Inexpensive EVs for the masses are something else.

Tesla has recently said the "$35 K Model 3" may not be produced for sale to the general public since it is a "no frills" unit. The ones that are making it to the people that have put down the $1000 deposit are higher end (mid $40's (K)).

Tesla does not disclose monthly production numbers, only quarterly. I read that about 1200 Model 3's were produced by the end of 2017. What ever happened to the 5,000 cars per month production rates that Musk promised for the Model 3's? Seems like his forecasts are plagued with the facts of manufacturing realities.

 

[rodi]

I have only seen 1, maybe 2 Tesla's of any model here in New Orleans, and I think it (or both?) had California plates. Probably Mardi Gras tourists. It just doesn't seem to float anybody's boat here. No Tesla dealerships that I have seen although there could be one, I suppose. (EDIT: Nope, I just checked, none here.) Many here earn their living from oil & gas.

There are several Teslas in my neighborhood... but none on my block that I know of. (Although a neighbor has the all electric BMW. and another has a Ford EV.)

I rarely do NOT see a Tesla when I go on the freeway. They're everywhere here. And they're definitely part of the mix when I'm driving home from my beach walk in the morning... amongst the Maseratis, Ferraris, Mercedes, Audis, and BMWs. My new, but bottom of the line, Subaru is definitely slumming once I pull out of the beach parking lot. (Although the surfers parked in the lot have a lot of more "normal" cars....)