The Banks - Whadaya Think

[TN_INVEST]

Don't be a hero.

There will be plenty chances to make money with financial stocks at some point in the future.

If you are thinking about buying XLF, at the very least I'd sell some sort of put option with a strike price below the market price. The October $11 put option will get you about $0.44 (x 100 = $44). That "sorta" means you will have a $10.56 basis ($11 - 0.44 = $10.56) IF it gets down that low in the next 6 weeks (and that's a lot better than buying it for $12.23 on Monday and watching it move below $11 over the next 6 weeks).

If it never gets that low, you've made $44 and perhaps that means the stock is moving up or going sideways. In which case, you might then want to go ahead and start buying the ETF because things look a little better (if it finds a bottom, there's plenty of time to make money, so don't worry about missing the first lil move up). I'd rather buy it at $15 as it moves up to $20 than to grab it at $12 and ride it up to $20 (my reasoning being that it's going to take a fair amount of good news to get it up to $15 and with the good news, I'd feel a lot better about owning it after there has been enough good news to move it up to $15 than to buy it today at $12 without a lot of good news).

Me? I'd wait and find something else. Maybe start looking at XLF again in the Spring after some of the banks have started to report better numbers. No need to be a hero.

 

[chinaco]

Don't be a hero.

There will be plenty chances to make money with financial stocks at some point in the future.

If you are thinking about buying XLF, at the very least I'd sell some sort of put option with a strike price below the market price. The October $11 put option will get you about $0.44 (x 100 = $44). That "sorta" means you will have a $10.56 basis ($11 - 0.44 = $10.56) IF it gets down that low in the next 6 weeks (and that's a lot better than buying it for $12.23 on Monday and watching it move below $11 over the next 6 weeks).

If it never gets that low, you've made $44 and perhaps that means the stock is moving up or going sideways. In which case, you might then want to go ahead and start buying the ETF because things look a little better (if it finds a bottom, there's plenty of time to make money, so don't worry about missing the first lil move up). I'd rather buy it at $15 as it moves up to $20 than to grab it at $12 and ride it up to $20 (my reasoning being that it's going to take a fair amount of good news to get it up to $15 and with the good news, I'd feel a lot better about owning it after there has been enough good news to move it up to $15 than to buy it today at $12 without a lot of good news).

Me? I'd wait and find something else. Maybe start looking at XLF again in the Spring after some of the banks have started to report better numbers. No need to be a hero.

Reread the post.... wrong ETF.

I was looking at it from a longer term value oriented perspective (3 to 5 years if need be).

 

[TN_INVEST]

Reread the post.... wrong ETF.

I was looking at it from a longer term value oriented perspective (3 to 5 years if need be).

That bank ETF (KBE) is even worse than the financial ETF (XLF). At least the XLF can buy insurance companies and REITs.

I sorta view financials and banks as VERY similar sectors. Therefore, I'll help interpret my original post and sum it up this way. Me? I'd wait and find something else. Maybe start looking .... again in the Spring after some of the banks have started to report better numbers. No need to be a hero.

Hey, but somebody's surely going to have a great story about how they bought that thing at it's lowest point. Why not you? It's only money.

Best of luck.