This Market is Crazy!!!

I spent a year in the fusion industry. Don't hold your breath.

All players, be it magnetic or inertially confined, direct or indirect are far from being able to putting electrons on the grid. There is promise, but it is not the panacea you are being told it is, either in its maturity, or in its "cleanliness".

pwf
I wasn’t told it was a panacea and I don’t think I said anything like that. I am listening to issues surrounding the daya center surge and this is one of the things I heard. There is a lot of buzz, though.
 
It seems like a lot of food for $10 to me. I prefer the smaller burger too. Same with those $5 bags at Wendy’s… a lot of food for the money. It makes no sense that they offer all this food on a deal, with a coupon, or app but the regular prices are crazy. I won’t put a fast food app on my phone
I’m with you. I don’t want to have restaurant Apps on my phone.
Here’s an idea. Make one app that all the sites can use. Maybe call it Explorer or Safari or Navigator.
 
I’m with you. I don’t want to have restaurant Apps on my phone.
Here’s an idea. Make one app that all the sites can use. Maybe call it Explorer or Safari or Navigator.
I have a McDonald's app on my phone for the few times a year that I go to the drive-thru.

Reason: The people taking my order are far from fluent in English and had regularly messed up my orders. Then trying to correct it was another ordeal. Until they get an multi language AI to take my order like Taco Bell has, I'll place my order on the app.
 
I have a McDonald's app on my phone for the few times a year that I go to the drive-thru.

Reason: The people taking my order are far from fluent in English and had regularly messed up my orders. Then trying to correct it was another ordeal. Until they get an multi language AI to take my order like Taco Bell has, I'll place my order on the app.
About 15 years ago at Mcd, I ordered going through the drive thru, a burger with no cheese. I received 2 buns that's it.
There is more.... the receipt stated that I ordered a burger with no meat. You can't make this up.
Chik Fil A got most of the "A" students.
 
About 15 years ago at Mcd, I ordered going through the drive thru, a burger with no cheese. I received 2 buns that's it.
There is more.... the receipt stated that I ordered a burger with no meat. You can't make this up.
Chik Fil A got most of the "A" students.
I once received an Egg McMuffin with no egg but I ordered it in person not online. I think I went back in and they fixed for me somehow...
 
I’m with you. I don’t want to have restaurant Apps on my phone.
Here’s an idea. Make one app that all the sites can use. Maybe call it Explorer or Safari or Navigator.
There is an app called Slice that is use by a lot of pizza and Italian restaurants. We just ordered with it tonight. Not only is it convenient but also you get 10% off your order. They also have a reward program and you earn free pizzas. There are 3 local places we frequent that all use it.
 
Generation is just one leg of their 3 legged stool. Transmission and distribution are the other two. Even now, many utility companies are deconstructing the bill to break out those costs from generation. Even making them flat rate, independent of the amount of energy you would use. For example PG&E out here in California started last month billing a flat $25 per month to be connected to the grid. This is killing solar owners who were breaking even at true-up, now paying $25 per month. PG&E lowered their kwh rates to help offset, but their real plan is the eventually drop kwh rates and have a flat rate for every meter out there regardless of the power they use. Say good bye to conservation according to that business model! The only real way to manage the huge loads is to go underground. Over head wires distributed to residential and small commercial businesses would clutter the sky. But with the likelihood of small fusion reactors, the generation part of the equation will be distributed, not concentrated in megawatt power houses. Before you know it, that transformer being placed on that pad in your neighborhood might actually be a reactor.
Not in MY lifetime!!

Regarding what happened to those selling solar back to PG&E, I assume that was strategic on PG&E's part. They really don't WANT solar from residential customers. They want to generate electricity themselves (my assumption - and I"ve been wrong before).
 
Not in MY lifetime!!

Regarding what happened to those selling solar back to PG&E, I assume that was strategic on PG&E's part. They really don't WANT solar from residential customers. They want to generate electricity themselves (my assumption - and I"ve been wrong before).
Oh PG$E wants residential solar, and they figured out a way they don't have to pay for it with this new scam. When residential solar produces more than the homeowner can use, it's backfed to the grid. Sure, the resident is given credit, but it used to be at the same rate they would be charged at that time of day. Now, they pay at the commercial bulk rate. Here where I'm at, the TOU for peak hours is 40 cents per kwh. Bulk is 3 cents. Almost all solar designs took into account that some power would be banked during the day at premium rates and used after at reduced rates for more kwh than earlier in the day. Then just to put the icing on the cake, they changed the hours of peak rates. It used to be from around 1pm to 6 pm. Now it's from 4 pm to 9pm, hours when not a lot of power is made, or at least as not as much as during the peak sun angles were before. With all this, PG$E now can capture your solar at greatly reduced rates than it charges the solar customer and they get a fixed $25 to $60 per month just to be connected to the grid. Their premise for that fee is that solar customers are taking advantage of being connected, what with banking power (you can not 'bank' or store electricity. At least not on the grid as they elude to) and that the customer also uses some from them during after sun light hours and on weather days. By deconstructing the bill into transmission, distribution and generation, they are able to do just that. This allows PG$E to forego powering up high demand gas fired generation during hot weather, known as 'peaking generation plants'.
In California, the state has a fixed carbon footprint assigned to every business. PG$E has a limit to the amount of carbon they can produce when making their product. Solar, of course, is carbon free. If PG$E has a surplus of carbon credits at the end of the year, partly in thanks to the mandate all new homes must have solar, and all those who installed solar before it was required, they can sell it on an open market. A date is set for all businesses to either buy or sell solar credits based on their need or excess they have. This can be a real bloodbath for those who need more credits to stay in business in the state. In some cases, businesses fail here because they are not as 'clean energy' users as others. And guess who decides how many carbon credits your business will receive? And which businesses always seem to have excess to sell and which always seem to be short and have to bid on to buy and stay in business. If they use more than they have credits for, there's as stiff fine.
All of this was with the approval of the CPUC, an appointed board that was created to protect rate payers from just this sort of price gouging on critical infrastructure. Now, if I were on the CPUC board, I would use PG$E's logic and bill them for the use of my property to place their poles, charge them a tax to use the public roads, just like cars use them, and also charge them for all easements, public and private with the private portion going towards their electric bill. I would also bill them for the carbon credits my solar produces. And I keep track. Or rather, my solar inverter keeps track. I'm attaching a screen shot that shows on the left, the amount of CO2 emissions my solar has saved and that PG$E has been able to sell at auction. According to AI, the average solar resident saves 2.8 tons of CO2 annually. 33% of all electricity used in California is solar. 12% of that from behind-the-meter customers like myself. Over 20,000 mwh of solar from residents generated. So besides balancing the grid, saving PG$E from firing up peaking plants, creating CO emissions savings which they sell at auction and billing solar customers $25+ per month, these guys are triple dipping into solar customer pockets. All with the approval of the PUC.
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As someone who looked into solar and didn't bite, I think it is fair to bifurcate billing and have a separate charge for being connected to the grid. That is very common elsewhere and almost universal nationwide now from what I read.

The "$25 to $60 per month" is a bit higher than the $15-$35 nationally.

Would you benefit if you added batteries to store solar power that you generate rather than releasing it to the grid? For that, would you forgo the 3c benefit but avoid the 40c cost?
 
As someone who looked into solar and didn't bite, I think it is fair to bifurcate billing and have a separate charge for being connected to the grid. That is very common elsewhere and almost universal nationwide now from what I read.

The "$25 to $60 per month" is a bit higher than the $15-$35 nationally.

Would you benefit if you added batteries to store solar power that you generate rather than releasing it to the grid? For that, would you forgo the 3c benefit but avoid the 40c cost?
Adding batteries would be a benefit as I would be able to buffer my generation on a short term basis. But home solar isn't designed that way. It's sized for annual average generation, hence the annual true-up with the utility company. I bank a lot of power, kwh-wise, in the summer to be used in the winter. But PG$E doesn't bank kwh, it banks the kwh rate; used to be prevailing rate charged to me, now is the commercial bulk rate.
But back to batteries;
There are several negatives with batteries. I'll list them here that I'm aware of:
1. They can't handle the inrush current of a 3-ton A/C unit. They trip. And they don't reset on their own. You have to manually press a reset button, much like a breaker on your electrical panel. If you are not home, you are out of power. Now, let's say you took a week's vacation and you left the A/C on at 78 degrees, or even 80 degrees so the house doesn't fry your plants, melt your candles, etc. while you are away. A power outage occurs. A short one, even seconds, and if the A/C decides it's time to cycle the compressor on, it will trip the batteries and you are not going to have power when the electric company restores power. Not until you reclose the trip on the batteries.
2. The battery manufacturer, Tesla Power Wall for example, requires communication to YOUR batteries at least once every 24 hours. It can be via cellular, Wifi or ethernet, but if they can't log in within that 24 hour window, the battery will trip and stay tripped until manually reset. Just like a power outage. A literal Deadman's switch. In my neck of the woods, my internet provider is likely to suffer the same outage I'm experiencing. They do not have a generator and after 4 hours, they go dark. If the outage lasts 24 hours, my batteries trip. Same for my cell phone tower; no generator, batteries only and good for about 4 to 6 hours. The engineers at Tesla told me the solution is to turn off my A/C if I leave home. That is not a solution. Not in my opinion anyways.
3. The government will cover the cost of batteries for me since I live in an area that is prone to outages due to safety; if the weather is such that power lines are at risk, the power is preemptively cut until the event is over AND the lines have been inspected to still be intact. BUT, the way it's funded, the money is given to PG$E. I have to put up $25,000 in a zero interest 12-month loan to get them installed. After the government inspects and satisfied, they tell PG$E to release the money they gave them to do the job. However, PG$E drags it's heels and 12 months pass and I owe interest on the $25,000. PG$E has been sued over this practice and it's discovered they held the note and collected the interest on the defaulted loan AND the interest on the $25,000 that the government gave them before even starting the job. Hm.....
4. Having 27kwh of power in the size of a small fridge in your house turns out to be a liability according to home owner insurance carriers. I'm guessing they feel a fire is going to be a problem with a home that has them? I'm not sure. I only know that when I asked my insurance company how to cover their cost in my policy, they said they would drop me if I got batteries.
5. PG$E has the right to draw power off my batteries on an as-needed basis. Meaning the same power they stole from me during peak hours, that I'm now banking in my batteries, they can take from my batteries without paying me. They are required to charge them back up for free, but between the hours of 2am and 6am.
6. By law, everyone who has a house has to be connected to the grid. You can not legally go off grid. The only exception is if PG$E refuses to run power lines that far out to where ever it is you live. Only then will you get a variance from mandatory grid connection. This means even if you have solar and have batteries, you are still going to have to be connected to the grid and you still have to pay PG$E a monthly fee for it.

There are more issues, but I can't recall them just now.
 
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What looks like crazy is usually the visible edge of fiscal-monetary regime change. Cap-weighted indexes are sitting roughly 30 percent in seven AI-compute names while equal-weight S&P has gone nowhere in eighteen months — that is concentration, not breadth. Central banks bought 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 alone and Berkshire is parked at 300 billion in T-bills. Positioning data says the patient money is short multiples and long optionality, which is the opposite of what the tape advertises.
 
Just chatted with the realtor that sold my house in January of this year. She said when we listed, there was a 9 month inventory of $1 million dollar plus homes. We sold in 2 days. Today she said the inventory in that price range has swelled to 18 months. Prices are dropping. She said the market is a falling knife.

One data point, but all good things must come to an end.
 
The median 401k balance across all age groups is $39,000 so fully half of 401k participants have less than that. Even if we look at the 55-64 age group approaching retirement, the median is around $90,000. Yes, lots of people have 401k plans but most don't have that much money in them.

90% of all stock is owned by just 10% of people.

It's really quite surprising that so much media coverage is given to the stock market when you consider that fact.
I don't know how to get accurate numbers, but we never had a 401k, but we are in the top 5%. It was all IRAs, Roth/IRAs, SEP/IRA, and taxable accounts. The 401k is often bandied about, but there are other ways to invest.
 
A search for "what percentage of financial assets are in retirement accounts" generated an AI response saying as of late 2025, about 34% of financial assets are in retirement accounts.

If this is correct then people on average have about three times as much as the tables imply.

That's a significant difference.
30% of my portfolio is in regular taxable accounts, but I still consider them funds for retirement. Also add SEP/IRAs as another category.
 
30% of my portfolio is in regular taxable accounts, but I still consider them funds for retirement. Also add SEP/IRAs as another category.
Us too. We have a fairly large taxable account.
 
I read most of the thread and see no mention of Iran, the strait of Hormuz, oil shipping, and especially, Where will the market go when the conflict ends?
I can only see it as a big positive, dis-inflationary, increase in personal spending.
 
I read most of the thread and see no mention of Iran, the strait of Hormuz, oil shipping, and especially, Where will the market go when the conflict ends?
I can only see it as a big positive, dis-inflationary, increase in personal spending.
Still waiting for it to end, but agree in a general sense up to a certain point.
 
Time2 said 30% of my portfolio is in regular taxable accounts, but I still consider them funds for retirement.

I guess I should have added, we have been retired almost 8 years, what else would I call my savings? Maybe the kids inheritance!
Having a large taxable is a mighty benefit if retiring early. It helped us.
 
Same here. For my brother and I, it was to manage our ACA MAGI.
My first year retired I took something like $106,000 of income and paid $0 tax, as I was below the number that triggered the 15% LTCGs tax. Actually, it was more like a $212,000 withdrawal to generate $106,000 of income about 50% was my initial investment, all of it was reinvested plus some of the LTCGs.
 
Having a large taxable is a mighty benefit if retiring early. It helped us.
Yes. When I first thought of retiring early, our taxable accounts were not large enough, plus the Great Recession smashed everything. I was able to continue my part-time work to avoid withdrawing anything, but did think of 72t withdrawal as an option.

By the time I decided to quit working for real in 2012, the taxable accounts recovered and grew enough to support us until 59-1/2,, when I was able to draw from tax-deferred accounts. Yes, a lot of things happened by chance.
 
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