This Market is Crazy!!!

Aerides said:
Yeah, but of those 62%, I'd wager 80% of those have $200k or less, newer or tiny 401ks, etc. "in some form" is doing a heavy lift.

Just another demonstration that the economy is not the stock market.
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Everyone started with $200k or less, or a tiny 401k. The point is, it is not "10%".

Flieger
 
It is getting to the point that it's starting to feel a bit surreal to me. I hit a new ATH yesterday. I've only been retired since 4/30/2025, yet since then my invested asset value is up about 28.1%. And that's just the actual dollar amount. If I add back in everything I've pulled out to live off of since I've retired, my actual return would be more like 31-32%.

Now, in April 30 of last year, we were still coming off of a low, so using that as a starting point makes my numbers look a bit on the optimistic side. Still, if you told me back when I retired that I'd be where I'm at now, there is no way I would have believed it.
 
Andre1969 said:
It is getting to the point that it's starting to feel a bit surreal to me. I hit a new ATH yesterday. I've only been retired since 4/30/2025, yet since then my invested asset value is up about 28.1%. And that's just the actual dollar amount. If I add back in everything I've pulled out to live off of since I've retired, my actual return would be more like 31-32%.

Now, in April 30 of last year, we were still coming off of a low, so using that as a starting point makes my numbers look a bit on the optimistic side. Still, if you told me back when I retired that I'd be where I'm at now, there is no way I would have believed it.
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We have way more than the day we retired back in 2020. It’s funny before you retire you worry if you have enough. After you retire you worry if you have too much.
 
DJRR said:
Yeah. Retired in March. In February I was thinking OK, I can do this. In March it was uh oh. Now it is better than ever. It is like Monopoly money to gain or lose a Porsche 911 every month.

The good news is that I am becoming more comfortable with my plan and just watching 30 minutes of Bloomberg each day while weaning myself off the markets. With earnings up this still has a ways to go. If it goes really parabolic like 1999 then I will cash some out and pay off my mortgage to reduce my risk some.
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It really has gone parabolic like 1999 IMO given the over 40 CAPE10, but then again market irrationally can last longer than one can remain solvent or whatever the appropriate phrase might be.
 
audreyh1 said:
It really has gone parabolic like 1999 IMO given the over 40 CAPE10, but then again market irrationally can last longer than one can remain solvent or whatever the appropriate phrase might be.
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The straight off the recent bottom is what catches my eye. Corrections come off these blow off tops. It’s normal, but I would rather be able to play it to my advantage.
 
mrfeh said:
April was great, due to excellent earnings reports and the hope that oil will start moving through Hormuz again.

But if you take a step back, it's just back to the trend from the previous year. View attachment 63441
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I like to look at the longer trends, 5 yr and since 1980.

IMG_9701.png


IMG_9702.png
 
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audreyh1 said:
Dang! Are you cashing out?

So we’re in the roaring 20s again?
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Haven't sold any shares yet, I agree that rebalancing is overdue, what began at 3% when I retired has ballooned to 33% of my net now. Trouble is I'm a deer in headlights, most of the way up I believed cost-basis step up would bail me out, but now that my new results suggest otherwise, I'd still rather not take the tax hit now partly because it's my IRMAA reference when I apply in 2028. But I know the longer this crazy ride goes on, the deeper the crash will be. FWIW maybe roaring kitty 20s? I doubt this one lasts to 2029.
 
Gumby said:
I held GLW about 20 years ago and gave up on it. Oh well.
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Yeah I was talking up GLW on here a long time ago, maybe 2013 or so? I could look it up. GLW was like $20 and I thought they might do well with their smart glass and such. I was not thinking AI at the time.
 
Fermion said:
Yeah I was talking up GLW on here a long time ago, maybe 2013 or so? I could look it up. GLW was like $20 and I thought they might do well with their smart glass and such. I was not thinking AI at the time.
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What’s this new AI fiber optic deal that was announced?
 
dunkelblau said:
Haven't sold any shares yet, I agree that rebalancing is overdue, what began at 3% when I retired has ballooned to 33% of my net now. Trouble is I'm a deer in headlights, most of the way up I believed cost-basis step up would bail me out, but now that my new results suggest otherwise, I'd still rather not take the tax hit now partly because it's my IRMAA reference when I apply in 2028. But I know the longer this crazy ride goes on, the deeper the crash will be. FWIW maybe roaring kitty 20s? I doubt this one lasts to 2029.
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At least IRMAA is limited to one year at a time.
 
It will be interesting to check this graph after a few more months of updates.
Screenshot from 2026-05-07 09-26-36.png
 
audreyh1 said:
What’s this new AI fiber optic deal that was announced?
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MichaelB said:
Fiber optic was one of the ingredients of the big tech boom and equity market run up in the late 90’s. It’s back!
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Speaking of fiber optics and AI data centers, here's a mighty swing and a miss by me.

I owned LITE for a while back when it was not as heavily involved with photonics and more of a supplier to Apple.

Back then, March 2023.

1778165229719.png


Today:

1778165270991.png
 
COcheesehead said:
I know when enough is enough. Started raising some cash yesterday. I don’t need THE high to make money and I don’t need THE low to reinvest. Close enough is good enough.
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Agree with you, have started skimming off the cash and not just automatically reinvesting. Going to fill my , “I don’t need to follow the markets, or watch my stash” bucket and breath easy. The volatility and craziness in the news can’t be good for my health! If I could turn off the news, the internet and check in after the next election I would be happier
 
dunkelblau said:
My ESOP+RSU position value at my last employer has multiplied 30-fold as of the close today compared to what it was when I retired at YE 2022. My employer had been for decades the red-headed stepchild in silicon valley, and today's AI bubble has finally given it a cinderella moment. But I think we know how this story ends, it'll rhyme with a century ago.
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I would “like “ your comment, because I agree with it, but I don't really like your comment, if you get my drift.
 
My consolation for trying to understand the market is the old saying "the economy is not the market".
It's tough to watch the daily volatility and the seemingly way too high valuations. But I'm pretty risk tolerant and just stay invested. I do think the market is more forward looking than the economy, and there are some positive factors for the long term. Although thinking about just taking a little profits to have some ready cash if we have a short term drop in market.
 
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