This Market is Crazy!!!

Montecfo said:
As discussed, I do think indexing IS a factor in the consistent market uptrend. Cap-weighted indexing is a a flavor of momentum investing. And people who buy them have been taught that it is low risk so that gives confidence. Also taught to not sell, or you are a DMT.
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The solution is simple. We old folks should start selling our index funds, and spend more by using the money to have a good time.
 
audreyh1 said:
What else can I say?
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Didn't read thru the whole thread, but I have been (guilty of) expecting the market to crash for a good while. But then even for myself, it has been TINA (There Is No Alternative) to the US stock market, and I has had no better choice. It is so hard to time the market, and I observed many smart investors got burnt, not because their rationale was wrong, but rather because the market has had its own timing.
 
ut2sua said:
Didn't read thru the whole thread, but I have been (guilty of) expecting the market to crash for a good while. But then even for myself, it has been TINA (There Is No Alternative) to the US stock market, and I has had no better choice. It is so hard to time the market, and I observed many smart investors got burnt, not because their rationale was wrong, but rather because the market has had its own timing.
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I was listening to a podcast yesterday and they said that if you had invested a lump sum in the market at the very peak of the dot com bubble before it popped in March 2000 and you would have left that money alone, you would have earned an average annual return of 8% in the subsequent 26 years.

Market timing is a fool's game. Are we in an AI bubble? I don't think so but even if we are, so what? The long term trend of the market is always up. As long as you don't bail out you'll be fine.
 
disneysteve said:
I was listening to a podcast yesterday and they said that if you had invested a lump sum in the market at the very peak of the dot com bubble before it popped in March 2000 and you would have left that money alone, you would have earned an average annual return of 8% in the subsequent 26 years.

Market timing is a fool's game. Are we in an AI bubble? I don't think so but even if we are, so what? The long term trend of the market is always up. As long as you don't bail out you'll be fine.
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Someone also smart once said if you don’t like the results, lengthen the time frame, Trouble is some of us don’t have that option. ;)
 
COcheesehead said:
Someone also smart once said if you don’t like the results, lengthen the time frame, Trouble is some of us don’t have that option. ;)
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I don't worry about time frame because I want to leave as much as I can to the estate.
 
COcheesehead said:
Someone also smart once said if you don’t like the results, lengthen the time frame, Trouble is some of us don’t have that option. ;)
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If you're living on your principal, it may be more of a problem if there's a crash, but how many here are doing that? Most are living on portfolio income, SS, and pensions. Some RMDs too which may include selling shares. No matter what, you don't need your entire portfolio tomorrow or next week or next year. You just need a small piece of it each month or quarter so there's time for recovery.
 
MRG said:
You should question these type of statistics! They're mostly wrong!

I've sat in hundreds of hours of meetings about getting this information for various government agencies and fund companies. It seems simple if you know the data and have access to it.

Megacorp had all the data for their clients but there are inherent problems in trying to aggregate it. Want to see assets by fund and account? No problem.

Want to aggregate a household together? Good luck. You might think it's the same registration, it looks the same. Only one has nulls at the end, the other has spaces. Its not equal to a computer.

Think it's not problem, lots of people have the same name, combine it with addresses. Guess how many varieties of the same address exists in hundreds of millions of accounts.

What if you have ABC and XYZ funds. How do you resolve them? Do you think ABC gives out a list of customers? Not hardly.

Move it to the brokerages and the same problem exists. There's a lot of guessing going on.
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Yes-a lot of data is behind firewalls and the integrability of said data for many uses ('AI'-algorithm development, etc) is sometimes iffy. I got paid good money to clean databases used in healthcare-and even then it wasn't perfect. I have a *lot* of skepticism to what is available publicly for certain industries/areas.
 
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disneysteve said:
If you're living on your principal, it may be more of a problem if there's a crash, but how many here are doing that? Most are living on portfolio income, SS, and pensions. Some RMDs too which may include selling shares. No matter what, you don't need your entire portfolio tomorrow or next week or next year. You just need a small piece of it each month or quarter so there's time for recovery.
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True, I am one who can live just off portfolio income for two life times, but to some SORR is real.
 
TheWizard said:
Yes, but that's not typically how it goes.
In one's working years, they are typically adding more new money into their investments.
Money already in there might double every eight years or so, depending.
But the addition of increasing amounts of new money matters even more...
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Right. In my highest earning years (where we start to realize and ask and attain our actual worth) we can pack 25k, 50k, 75k a year into investments now.

Invest 70k from age 30 to 45 and you won't fail unless you took on massive debt and loans. I realize many people might not earn that, but this forum isn't really geared towards those viewers. It's geared towards the people that actually tune into what it takes to RE.
 
GenXguy said:
Yeah, I was feeling pretty good about the many ATH's lately, including today. But then I went out for groceries and bought gas, and I wasn't feeling so well off, anymore.
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Wait until the fuel contracts for trucking companies come up for renewal. The price of everything is going to be a shock pretty soon, I bet. I fly to Miami every 3 months for work. In April the price was $384 RT. They just booked my July flight ... $576. And that's with our American Airlines discount.
 
threeonesix said:
Wait until the fuel contracts for trucking companies come up for renewal. The price of everything is going to be a shock pretty soon, I bet. I fly to Miami every 3 months for work. In April the price was $384 RT. They just booked my July flight ... $576. And that's with our American Airlines discount.
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Just got my latest home heating oil delivery. Was afraid to open the bill. Wasn't as bad as I thought at $4.99/gal, but got a delivery in Feb and it was only $3.69, a 35% increase since Feb 20th!
DateQtyDescriptionPrice
05/05/2026141.82_Fuel_Oil$4.999
02/20/2026135.02_Fuel_Oil$3.699
01/10/2026171.82_Fuel_Oil$3.399
11/21/2025110.32_Fuel_Oil$3.399
06/11/2025142.12_Fuel_Oil$3.299
 
Does feel like the inflation numbers might be a tad off if they are not accounting for the increases that are coming from high fuel prices.
 
There seems to be quite a disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street. Inflation is ramping up and from what I have seen over my lifetime it takes a few months for this to show up at the retail levels, other than the gas pump which seems to be almost immediate. Time horizon for the investor is key to all of this of course. It seems to me that this is a great time to rebalance if your guidelines are getting out of sync. I have a personal investment statement (profile) and just rebalanced. With everything at an all time high, I feel really good about it. Remember "buy low and sell high".
 
mrfeh said:
April was great, due to excellent earnings reports and the hope that oil will start moving through Hormuz again.

But if you take a step back, it's just back to the trend from the previous year. View attachment 63441
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Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. The "oil thing" was an apparent glitch and many are now discounting it, I guess.

My issue is that I never completely understood the run up from the last couple of years. Nice that the "trend" seems to be returning, but why the trend in the first place??
 
Koolau said:
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. The "oil thing" was an apparent glitch and many are now discounting it, I guess.

My issue is that I never completely understood the run up from the last couple of years. Nice that the "trend" seems to be returning, but why the trend in the first place??
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Inflation is great for corporate profits. Costs go up 2% so they raise prices 6% and blame “inflation”. Then they report record profits and their stock price climbs.
 
COcheesehead said:
I know when enough is enough. Started raising some cash yesterday. I don’t need THE high to make money and I don’t need THE low to reinvest. Close enough is good enough.
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We are leaving for NYC tomorrow morning and the above reminded me that I wanted to take our RMDs from our 401K and traditional IRAs this month. I just got that completed. Thanks for the reminder.
 
goodtogo said:
There seems to be quite a disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street. Inflation is ramping up and from what I have seen over my lifetime it takes a few months for this to show up at the retail levels, other than the gas pump which seems to be almost immediate. Time horizon for the investor is key to all of this of course. It seems to me that this is a great time to rebalance if your guidelines are getting out of sync. I have a personal investment statement (profile) and just rebalanced. With everything at an all time high, I feel really good about it. Remember "buy low and sell high".
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Yes. Rebalancing is simply making sure you time the market correctly in essence. But yes selling equities now does not seem crazy. I have been doing some selling and some buying.

But Wall St has never been synonymous with Main St so that's not a new thing.
 
I’ve been pessimistic since the S&P crossed 4,000. Fortunately the only damage done has been rebalancing more often than my planning statement claims.
10 year TIPS reopens Thursday so I’ll probably rebalance a bit again.

Happy to have been so wrong for so long.
 
Whirlpool's payout ratio was like 150%, probably not sustainable.
 
I am more comfortable when the market “climbs a wall of worry” taking 2-3 steps forward and 1 step back, etc. That’s like a bunch of small tremors that relieve pressure build up. This euphoric up, up, and away advance feels like a setup for a major crash because of FOMO and other risky activity.
 
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