cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I've "market timed" quite successfully but not through any metrics or a 'system'.
When the nasdaq hit 4000 in the late 90's/early 2000's, I decided to get out. 4000 was a stupid price by any measure, and it was built on the backs of companies without profits or even legitimate business plans. I actually decided to wait until after january 1st to defer the tax his and it went to 5000, and I gladly cashed out then.
No early retirement if I hadn't done that. My companies stock fell by 2/3+ and we actually had profits and a good business model. And the tons of money I scraped up by buying tech stocks and dumping them when they hit stupid levels was nice to have.
I missed a big chunk of the 2007/2008 debacle, but I also bought a $550k house thats worth 350k now. And I ducked that 20% drop last year.
I just go by Warren's credo. "Be greedy when others are fearful (I was buying hard into equities near the bottom a few years ago) and fearful when others are greedy (as in last year when the market was high, but the news was all bad)"
People are being greedy right now. I'm pretty sure Obama wins re-election and then the republican controlled congress antagonizes the situation and the market drops like a rock, then has a nice recovery around the 2nd quarter of next year. I'm feeling a lot more fearful than greedy right now.
When the nasdaq hit 4000 in the late 90's/early 2000's, I decided to get out. 4000 was a stupid price by any measure, and it was built on the backs of companies without profits or even legitimate business plans. I actually decided to wait until after january 1st to defer the tax his and it went to 5000, and I gladly cashed out then.
No early retirement if I hadn't done that. My companies stock fell by 2/3+ and we actually had profits and a good business model. And the tons of money I scraped up by buying tech stocks and dumping them when they hit stupid levels was nice to have.
I missed a big chunk of the 2007/2008 debacle, but I also bought a $550k house thats worth 350k now. And I ducked that 20% drop last year.
I just go by Warren's credo. "Be greedy when others are fearful (I was buying hard into equities near the bottom a few years ago) and fearful when others are greedy (as in last year when the market was high, but the news was all bad)"
People are being greedy right now. I'm pretty sure Obama wins re-election and then the republican controlled congress antagonizes the situation and the market drops like a rock, then has a nice recovery around the 2nd quarter of next year. I'm feeling a lot more fearful than greedy right now.