I always thought the same when people say we have the equity in the house for LTC. What if just one needs it? What if both need it?
I too looked at LTC insurance, but the math alone did not work out. I'd be better off putting the premiums into a fund paying 5%. The math worked out that if I needed it before the policy was 15 years old, it would be worth it. But at 15 it breaks even, and then I lose money after that compared to just self insuring for the amout of the payout. As I was looking at this at age 60. Considering family history -- nobody in either my wife or my family needed care before age 75 -- it seemed like a poor product.
And that was LTC just for me. Buying it for both my wife and I was too prohibitive. And due to far too many stories of having to coerce the insurance companies to actually meet their agreements made me move to self insure.
I'm surprised no one has mentioned QLAC as part (not all, but part) of a solution. I put in the maximum I could last fall (age 62), which is tentatively scheduled to payout at age 78. But I can delay that up to age 85 if it not needed before then, which increases the monthly payout of course. That QLAC has payout for my wife (75%) if I pass before her,and has 2% COLA. As my wife has very little pre-tax savings of her own, we can not get a QLAC for each of us. So we just have the one in my name with her with survivor benefits.
Now that is not enough. So I have actually bucketed one pool of money (not mentally bucketed, actually bucketed in a separate account), and am leaving this in a 401K plan (not doing a roth conversion for this), which is quite diverse and is 80/20 stock/bond. This currently has a balance of $370K, and will not touch that til RMD's require it. The reason to leave this in a pre-tax account is that one can deduct LTC as a medical expense so it is better to have pre-tax dollars reserved for that.
So the pools of money for self-insuring are the QLAC, wife and my social security (I am delying til age 70), the 401K, and then a small pension. Those all put together (withm RMD only on the 401K) would yield about $20K/month when I am 80.
But a) that is not guaranteed as one does not know what stock will do and b) that would not be enough if two of us needed it. While the QLAC, and SS, and pension are know quantities. the 401K is not. And who knows how inflation is going to set in. Still, we can take more than the RMD from the 401K, and we can use other Roth converted funds which will be done outside of the 401K, and then selling the house if needed.
The house and Roth would ideally be part of out estate for our kids, but if needed before then for LTC, they are there.
Which brings us back to the quote above. If just one person needs LTC, then is selling the house realistic? In our case it would be as we have a daughter (age 30 now) who has been clear she would want us to be with her. We would not have her provide LTC for us as that is too much of an ask. But if one of us needed LTC but the other does not, then selling the house for funds and living with my daughter would be an option.