Thats why I feel you shouldn't call the 4 % rule b.s. . It was based on 30 years not 40+ like you asked. And they didnt select a steady 3 % inflation. Yes if I didnt have a pension, I would have withdrew 3.15 % of my starting portfolio with an AA of 80/20. Except I would not have retired when i did, My nest egg was 1.1 million which would have only allowed us only 35,000 a year. I wanted 50,000.
I get what your saying but I think lots of people are making money on several websites the idea of a 4% SWR with FIRE at 25x etc. They are using it as a brand.
Regarding what your 3.15 percent withdraw rate and 80/20 AA. I'm not being mean or rude but it's easy to say one would do that but actually doing that without any other safety nets is hard and you can't say you would do it for sure unless you actually are doing it.
80/20 AA could lose over 50% in a bad market and if you did it right before a bad market you would not be able to recover for years.
The point of these exercises for me is to see if I can get out for the next possible 50 years.
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