What did you trade today and why?

[dickoncapecod]

For stock mavens, FWIW I think a piece of important news got lost in the crazy Friday news blizzard. OpenAI revealed that their investment spend would not be $1.4 TRILLION as reported earlier ---- but rather maybe $600 billion by 2030 --- because the economy/existing infrastructure simply couldn't drink the larger amount out of a fire hose. Maybe this is the first rational retreat from the AI I-can-spend-more-than-you nonsense. But it has potential 2-way ramifications. What about all those Open Ai orders that caused other firms to actually spend a lot of dough already? Cancelled?! Will other firms wise up and reduce spending plans? And since the "AI buildout" has been responsible for a large part of GDP.....well, you get the idea.
FWIW, Dick

 

[dobig]

Ended up hitting some sell limits on Friday after leaving for the day and am up to 22% cash. Mainly selling growth.

Less then half a point from ATH.

 

[dickoncapecod]

More amateur "thought" on my occasional stock spec trade: Our executive vigorously attacked Netflix today for having a former senior "Democrat" on its board. IMO that increases the likelihood that Netflix "loses" the contest for WBD and consequently increases the likelihood of very significant stock price gains.
FWIW, Dick

 

[dobig]

More amateur "thought" on my occasional stock spec trade: Our executive vigorously attacked Netflix today for having a former senior "Democrat" on its board. IMO that increases the likelihood that Netflix "loses" the contest for WBD and consequently increases the likelihood of very significant stock price gains.
FWIW, Dick

That's what I was thinking.

Following the price action, Wall St isn't thrilled with this purchase and you can see it every time there's a shift in Netflix's favor to get the deal.

 

[dobig]

Looking at the charts, Netflix hit $69 late Oct 2021. Closed Friday at $78.67.

2021 Revenue - $29.70 billion
2025 Revenue - $45.18 Billion

2021 Operating margins - 20.9%
2025 Operating margins - 29.5%

 

[dickoncapecod]

Aside: I just noticed that 75% of reporting companies "beat" analyst estimates AGAIN. Gosh....how do you suppose all those analysts keep their highly paid jobs when they are so consistently inaccurate? LOL!

 

[Onda]

Aside: I just noticed that 75% of reporting companies "beat" analyst estimates AGAIN. Gosh....how do you suppose all those analysts keep their highly paid jobs when they are so consistently inaccurate? LOL!

AI will soon replace them.

 

[AudiDudi]

Aside: I just noticed that 75% of reporting companies "beat" analyst estimates AGAIN. Gosh....how do you suppose all those analysts keep their highly paid jobs when they are so consistently inaccurate? LOL!

OFc, they would rather be incorrect and estimate low and have a "surprise" beat, than to estimate high and have a surprise miss.

 

[dickoncapecod]

OFc, they would rather be incorrect and estimate low and have a "surprise" beat, than to estimate high and have a surprise miss.

Sure. But that reveals you understand some equity marketing truths..(the Equitization of America game goes on):
Many analysts CAN and ACTUALLY DO estimate earnings very accurately, but they report purposefully lower estimates so talking heads can scream:

ITS A BEAT!!! BUY IT!!!!
Regards, Dick

 

[beyou]

Bought TAIL this week. Looking at this as portfolio insurance for what i think is an overvalued market in short run, and to limit volatility during my pre-SS early retirement (reduce SORR). Not something to make money but rather minimize extreme downside risks for a modest holding period. Dont expect to hold more than a year or two, depending on sp500 performance.

 

[dickoncapecod]

IMO markets are reflecting --- in addition to other stuff --- some State of the Union risk. Both domestic and foreign investors realize almost anything might be said and foreign investors in particular will also be assessing delivery style and coherence.
Regards, Dick

 

[COcheesehead]

Took some profits out of PHK, PDI and PTY early on.
Added to ORR.

 

[Surfcheck101]

Finally getting a little movement on Vanda (VNDA). The CEO bought shares this summer with his own money at $4 and now it is $7. I just sold a few thousand I had purchased along with him at $7.19 today and holding a few thousand more for longer term. He "claims" $1B revenue by 2030 which would imply a $70 to $90 share price. We shall see.

VNDA was up nearly 50% at one point today......

 

[dickoncapecod]

Doubled up on my very modest NFLX call position. Fingers crossed that they walk (or permit themselves to be outbid) in the WBD auction. If they do, "Mr. Equity" (LOL) here sees it popping $10-20 on its way back to $100+.
Regards, Dick

 

[dobig]

Doubled up on my very modest NFLX call position. Fingers crossed that they walk (or permit themselves to be outbid) in the WBD auction. If they do, "Mr. Equity" (LOL) here sees it popping $10-20 on its way back to $100+.
Regards, Dick

Picked up 1,300 this morning at $75.82. In our Roth so can ride this out for awhile since it doesn't affect our summer retirement timeline.

Going against our no individual stock rules but there's just too much meat on the bone with this one.

 

[YellowSubmarine]

+ EMXC, AVDV....added to positions. As we dig deeper into the 'us vs them' economies, I think the International community will prevail; hence that's where the money will be made...imho

 

[dobig]

+ EMXC, AVDV....added to positions. As we dig deeper into the 'us vs them' economies, I think the International community will prevail; hence that's where the money will be made...imho

Did similar with IEMG and AVDV. Have been on a shopping spree this morning with large cash stash but still have a lot of dry powder.

 

[Qs Laptop]

Picked up 1,300 this morning at $75.82. In our Roth so can ride this out for awhile since it doesn't affect our summer retirement timeline.

Going against our no individual stock rules but there's just too much meat on the bone with this one.

Very interesting. I suppose the acquisition attempt of Warner Bros. will be a huge influence on future stock price.

 

[dobig]

Very interesting. I suppose the acquisition attempt of Warner Bros. will be a huge influence on future stock price.

Rising revenue and increasing margin while stock has been halved. I don't foresee a slowdown in a company that produces tons of new crappy content for $10/month because it's new content and people want to be entertained. Especially cheaply.

An aside, I'm already bracing myself for this evening when my wife will make me watch some new nauseating series on Netflix. If it seems I might be enjoying myself even a little, I'll get the special torture with the dubbed international series.

 

[Rhythm Method]

I added a bit to SGENX, ADX, FBALX, and an order out for MSFT. Lots (for me) of cash still. Don't trust this market as far as I can spit

 

[surprising]

Doubled up on my very modest NFLX call position. Fingers crossed that they walk (or permit themselves to be outbid) in the WBD auction. If they do, "Mr. Equity" (LOL) here sees it popping $10-20 on its way back to $100+.
Regards, Dick

Many great companies are on sale. Getting ready to buy calls on NFLX, AMZN, MSFT..

 

[Rhythm Method]

Aside: I just noticed that 75% of reporting companies "beat" analyst estimates AGAIN. Gosh....how do you suppose all those analysts keep their highly paid jobs when they are so consistently inaccurate? LOL!

Maybe the analyst's job is to underreport so there's surprise to the upside?

 

[C-man23]

Same old story from me, as in the past several years. Friday is option expiration date, so I had many contracts becoming worthless, and I bought them back for pennies and sold new ones for next Friday at an even higher price.

Total out-of-the-money contracts rolled over plus a few new ones opened up: 78 contracts, for a total premium of $14K.

The info would not be complete if I do not tell you the value of the basket of stocks that I have to cover the above contracts: $802K, spread over 17 stock positions.

There are high-priced shares like DIA ($495/share), MU ($427/share) and AMAT ($374/share), down to lower-priced shares like AA ($60) and FCX ($64). When you take $14K premium divided over the $802K, that's 1.7% premium for just 1 week, not including the options I sold earlier in the week.

But what about the total return? Today, my total stash goes up by 0.6%, not including some MFs that have not reported. That's not shabby against the S&P 0.69%, particularly as my stock AA is only 60-65%.

What is the thought behind buying them back for pennies vs just letting them expire worthless?
Is the $$$ net of buying back and reselling for the following Friday higher than letting them expire and just selling new contracts on Monday?

 

[Surfcheck101]

Picked up a few thousand shares of FSCO @ $5.16.
Got a small bite on ORR premarket, 50 shares.
Added LULU, MSFT & NFLX to an existing positions.
Down almost 2% in the portfolio today.
Moved $8600 to my IRA.

 

[surprising]

Picked up a few thousand shares of FSCO @ $5.16.
Got a small bite on ORR premarket, 50 shares.
Added LULU, MSFT & NFLX to an existing positions.
Down almost 2% in the portfolio today.
Moved $8600 to my IRA.

FSCO is in full blown panic selling mode. Almost 3 year lows today. Also thinking about adding to my position but who knows how low it goes.