What did you trade today and why?

dobig said:
Cheese, you still waiting for that VIX to hit 30 before buying?

Got lucky again and am sitting on a pile of cash. If we get anywhere near 5 on that 10 year I'm backing up the truck to buy fixed income. And of course my dividend etfs.
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For any equity purchase, yes. For alternatives I have been adding as we go when I have cash. They dance to the beat of a different drum. Bonds, just managing my ladder right now. Cashflow = happiness.
 
COcheesehead said:
If the 10 year gets to 5, the Fed won’t have to do a thing. The market will have done it for them. Just keep watching the VIX. It’s still only at 19. That’s a kiss your sister moment.
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Saw a string of tidbits last night about 50+% of the S&P is negative for the year on the same day the S&P hit ATH. Described a K-shaped market to go with the K-shaped economy. Would be interesting if there is a VIX minus AI/semiconductors.
 
- RTHM and GOF sold all... big losing positions (post D for GOF)

+ BGH add to existing positions (x-D next week)
 
Sold all my semis on the open this morning except for SMH. Started smaller positions in stocks that I see have good free cash flow and positive outlooks. Started on CELH, ELF, and NOW. All 3 of with took a nice gain today, while the rest of the market was not as happy. I made a custom scanner that has a built in heat map to watch what each sector is doing. Scans the market the a couple times a day and compares stocks and gives me a grade. Scanners are based on the State street ETFS holdings.
1778880815267.png
 
Pretty much everything in Portfolio turned down yesterday. LT holdings (ie. VOO, ONEQ) down as much or more than most of my Income side. I'm thinking this week may be a good one to fully fund my HSA (~ $10k) and increase my LT investments there. May look at "projected" part time income for this year and fund the Roth as well, with same investments....

Flieger
 
COcheesehead said:
The portfolio was down yesterday, but just a small amount. The alts kicked in as hoped.
QMHNX up .51% on Friday, 18.26% YTD
QRPNX up .44%, 15.84% YTD
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Are the alts steady during the upticks, or do they drop, just less than the gains of the rest?

Flieger
 
Flieger said:
Are the alts steady during the upticks, or do they drop, just less than the gains of the rest?

Flieger
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They are uncorrelated to the markets. I stopped trying to guess what they’ll do. They zig and zag on their own path and before you know it they are outpacing the indexes.
 
COcheesehead said:
I started a position in PRPFX based on a post you made several weeks ago. It has a very high Sharpe and that appeals to me. I have about 4% of my portfolio in it and it’s up about 3% since my initial investment.
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I hope I am not derailing the thread with a specific question. PRPFX also came on my radar as a result of the above posts. I am currently holding SGENX for the diversification and gold. However, yesterday it took it on the chin like my other equity and FI. PRPFX held up amazingly well. That surprised me as gold and FI were also down.

I hold SGENX in two IRAs. I am considering exchanging one tranche of SGENX for PRPFX and the other for TIBIX, which I also own. That way, I would keep my equity exposure about the same while broadening diversification.

I’d welcome comments from the folks who sit in the front of the class.

TIA,
RM
 
Rhythm Method said:
I hope I am not derailing the thread with a specific question. PRPFX also came on my radar as a result of the above posts. I am currently holding SGENX for the diversification and gold. However, yesterday it took it on the chin like my other equity and FI. PRPFX held up amazingly well. That surprised me as gold and FI were also down.

I hold SGENX in two IRAs. I am considering exchanging one tranche of SGENX for PRPFX and the other for TIBIX, which I also own. That way, I would keep my equity exposure about the same while broadening diversification.

I’d welcome comments from the folks who sit in the front of the class.

TIA,
RM
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I sold all my SGENX. It was way underperforming. I posted about it.
My THOAX is up 10% YTD, TIBAX up 15%, SGENX only 6%.
I had high hopes for PRPFX, but it’s up only 7% YTD. I think it’s a good diversifier - for now.

My best performers are still my AQR funds. They are all up in the teen percentage range since I sold off my QLENX earlier in the year and reinvested into the family’s other funds.
 
What is really interesting - the Permanent Portfolio “concept” that Harry Browne put forth was 25% each of Stocks/Gold/ST Treasury or Cash/LT Treasuries

Looking under the hood at PRPFX - there is a lot more active management and diversification. 20% corporate bonds/individual equity holds etc. Swiss francs and silver. Interesting.
 
Thanks @Quattro73 and @COcheesehead I remember Mr. Cheese’s earlier comments on selling SGENX. I bought it hoping for some growth along with a bit of downside protection, though yesterday it behaved more like my other risk assets.

I’m beginning to think Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) may fit my temperament/style a little better, but I’m still thinking it through. Appreciate both of your perspectives. — RM

Edit to Add: My read from M* was incorrect, and I should have double-checked yesterday's numbers. I see PRPFX didn't do so well and, in fact, underperformed SGENX. I guess if I really want outside-the-box, I need to go back to the alts.
 
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Rhythm Method said:
Thanks @Quattro73 and @COcheesehead I remember Mr. Cheese’s earlier comments on selling SGENX. I bought it hoping for some growth along with a bit of downside protection, though yesterday it behaved more like my other risk assets.

I’m beginning to think Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) may fit my temperament/style a little better, but I’m still thinking it through. Appreciate both of your perspectives. — RM

Edit to Add: My read from M* was incorrect, and I should have double-checked yesterday's numbers. I see PRPFX didn't do so well and, in fact, underperformed SGENX. I guess if I really want outside-the-box, I need to go back to the alts.
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Have you looked at ALLW? - It is an etf by State Street that Bridgewater manages using the “All Weather” framework Dalio put forth which is an offshoot basically of the permanent portfolio.

I have been watching it. It does seem to have more interest rate sensitivity thus far (anecdotal from just me watching at a glance each day).
 
Quattro73 said:
Have you looked at ALLW? - It is an etf by State Street that Bridgewater manages using the “All Weather” framework Dalio put forth which is an offshoot basically of the permanent portfolio.

I have been watching it. It does seem to have more interest rate sensitivity thus far (anecdotal from just me watching at a glance each day).
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Or DIY... I don't remember how close to Dalio this originated from, but it's a starting point:
30% VTI
15% IEF 7-10 year intermediate bonds
40% TLT 20+ year treasuries
7.5% Gold (pick your ETF... but don't hold it in taxable as gold trusts suck for taxes)
7.5% DBC commodities
From there you can customize as you see fit old to adapt to other holdings (ex. same holding in two different ETFs... ex GLD).

In the current environment I'm not going to hold any more long bonds. Given the headwinds for bonds drift more towards commodities (added DBA agricultural and WEAT wheat), Metal miners (ex PICK, XME), Energy (XLE/XLEI, IXC)
 
Spock said:
That's why I suggest DIY. While not TLT, ALLW holds a lot of very long dated TIPS.
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Yes I see that. Of course if you buy direct bonds you can have declining maturity and duration as opposed to maintaining a nearly static maturity/duration that seems to create an “infinite” duration regardless of tenor.
 
Doing my weekend review.

Will lighten up on bond funds. As inflation/interest rates rise, NAV will erode. OK with individual issues because of the par value backstop. The exception is HOSIX. Steady eddy fund. Rising rate environments not so good for bonds. May seek floaters again which can benefit from rising rates.

Will also lighten up on international. The markets are saying something if you are listening.

Adds to my AQR suite of funds. The best performers so far this year.
 
COcheesehead said:
Doing my weekend review.

Will lighten up on bond funds. As inflation/interest rates rise, NAV will erode. OK with individual issues because of the par value backstop. The exception is HOSIX. Steady eddy fund. Rising rate environments not so good for bonds. May seek floaters again which can benefit from rising rates.

Will also lighten up on international. The markets are saying something if you are listening.

Adds to my AQR suite of funds. The best performers so far this year.
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How are you defining bond funds (some examples)? As for floaters, you mean like FSCO and the like?

Thanks,

Flieger
 
Flieger said:
How are you defining bond funds (some examples)? As for floaters, you mean like FSCO and the like?

Thanks,

Flieger
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Bond funds like EGRAX/EGRIX
Floaters like FSCO, but I won’t invest in FSCO. There are others I like.
 
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