What if Europe sold a large quantity of US Bonds?

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JackJester

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This article was interesting regarding how Europe could respond to a takeover of Greenland; employ the “Sell America” weapon.

Europe can wield this $8 trillion 'sell America' weapon as Trump reignites a trade war over his Greenland conquest ambitions | Fortune

the U.S. has a key vulnerability the EU can exploit, according to George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank.
“Europe owns Greenland, it also owns a lot of Treasuries,” he wrote in a note on Sunday.
Holding those bonds helps balance America’s massive external deficits, and Europe is the world’s biggest lender to the U.S.
For example, offsetting the U.S. trade imbalance requires heavy inflows of capital from abroad. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department must also finance budget gaps by issuing more debt, often to foreign investors."
“European countries own $8 trillion of US bonds and equities, almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined,” Saravelos pointed out. “In an environment where the geoeconomic stability of the western alliance is being disrupted existentially, it is not clear why Europeans would be as willing to play this part
.”

So, lets say hypothetically that Europe sold half of its US treasuries ('United States Treasury Securities: Foreign Holder: Europe data was reported at 3,635.487 USD bn in Nov 2025'.) ...if this hypothetical situation were to occur, what would this do to US Treasures and Fixed Income investments, and inflation, etc.?
 
I asked AI about it and it said the EU would more likely do a trade bazooka thing against US trade there. It recommended buying gold. Sighhhh, why didn't I buy gold last year when I was considering it.
 
I asked AI about it and it said the EU would more likely do a trade bazooka thing against US trade there. It recommended buying gold. Sighhhh, why didn't I buy gold last year when I was considering it.
No bad time to buy gold. Dollar cost average your buys.
 
Just thinking out loud, but if supply increases and demand is unchanged, I would think that prices would go down, but I would think that the resulting losses would prevent them from doing it.

But they could just stop buying new issues and that would hurt us but not hurt themselves.

What I can't figure out is why some are so insistant on owning Greenland when we already have the almost unlimited contractual right to use it. It would be like buying a property that you already have a bargain rent long term lease on. I don't get it.
 
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If European money is not in US bonds, it'll need to be invested elsewhere. Zimbabwe bonds?
 
I "love" what-if questions. I never invest based on them. The actual market tells you what to do.
Observation: Europe has been a sinking ship in the last 10-15 years. Older populations, over-regulations, and too many benefits have caused it.

pb4uski​

What I can't figure out is why some are so insistant on owning Greenland when we already have the almost unlimited contractual right to use it. It would be like buying a property that you already have a bargain rent long term lease on. I don't get it.

Tactical negotiation, just like the tariffs.
BTW, why does the UK own the Falkland Islands?
 
Also, we all know this is a highly politically adjacent discussion, so let's leave that stuff out for those who want to talk about financial impacts.
 
What I can't figure out is why some are so insistant on owning Greenland when we already have the almost unlimited contractual right to use it. It would be like buying a property that you already have a bargain rent long term lease on. I don't get it.
Resources...

Flieger
 
Selling large amounts would likely lower the price - leaving what they don't sell being of less value.

Plus, as someone mentioned, what do they want to hold that value in? Bit coin? Art w*rk? Euro Bonds?
 
Selling large amounts would likely lower the price - leaving what they don't sell being of less value.

Plus, as someone mentioned, what do they want to hold that value in? Bit coin? Art w*rk? Euro Bonds?
True, but they could just not buy more and take their maturity proceeds back to Europe to invest in European country bonds, gold , bitcoin, etc.
 
True, but they could just not buy more and take their maturity proceeds back to Europe to invest in European country bonds, gold , bitcoin, etc.
I'm sure that's true, but the US bonds would begin paying more interest and someone would buy the higher-interest bonds.
 
Well It would probably not end there if that happened and the rest is just speculation. If we knew, we would all be rich. Lol. I will say whatever happens the stock market is in for another big dip this week. If it rebounds on a deal or not should be what your worried about.
 
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Who is going to buy the US bonds that Europe is going to sell?
 
The Fed, for one. No one seems to care about the national debt except when they are running for office, so just heave more on.
 
The Fed, for one. No one seems to care about the national debt except when they are running for office, so just heave more on.

You think that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who has been repeatedly insulted by Trump, would advise the Fed to buy US bonds being sold by Europe because of fresh tariffs? I find that unlikely.
 
Just thinking out loud, but if supply increases and demand is unchanged, I would think that prices would go down, but I would think that the resulting losses would prevent them from doing it.

But they could just stop buying new issues and that would hurt us but not hurt themselves.

What I can't figure out is why some are so insistant on owning Greenland when we already have the almost unlimited contractual right to use it. It would be like buying a property that you already have a bargain rent long term lease on. I don't get it.
Good question; I can’t understand why push so hard to “own” it. Other than expanding the American footprint, I don’t see the upside of threatening our allies with military action!! We already have all the access we need
 
Somebody is moving money to PMs. I see silver is up another 4% today despite its price graph looking asymptotic.
 
So, lets say hypothetically that Europe sold half of its US treasuries ('United States Treasury Securities: Foreign Holder: Europe data was reported at 3,635.487 USD bn in Nov 2025'.) ...if this hypothetical situation were to occur, what would this do to US Treasures and Fixed Income investments, and inflation, etc.?
That money has to go somewhere, and there are few options. US Treasuries represent over half of global developed market sovereign bonds, and the next two biggest are Euro area and Japanese gov’t bonds.

Remember, much of this money is held by central banks and SWFs, so they buy sovereign debt by charter or mandate. The money isn’t going into gold or equities, it’s staying in sovereign fixed income.

Such a move is possible but unlikely. Even if they let the maturities run off and not rollover, it’s too much. A shift in assets that big would lead to a pretty substantial change in bond prices and exchange rates.The carnage would be just as bad in the Euro and Japanese economies as the US.

Big shifts in global asset allocation cannot happen over short periods of time without causing significant damage to all the economies, not just to the US.
 
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