What isn’t “different this time” ?

[marko]

A few times here, I've suggested that folks should do a SHTF portfolio analysis. Cut your current portfolio in half/quarter and run that number through FireCalc. Maybe then adjust your spending downward by 10% or 20%...your disposable/impulse spending.

It can help provide peace of mind.

 

[Flieger]

It seems the OP has come off of the ledge (or at least moved towards the building side from the edge) as this thread has continued. I am surprised it made it through the mods after the 1st post, but has been handled fairly well by the responses. I had a long response typed out, but then just decided to sit back and watch others correct the many false statements posted instead. Hopefully the OP will relax. We are either all along for the ride, or ready to lock in the big hit...

My bet is that as we have made it through other events (WW's, 9/11, etc) recovery is pretty much a given, it's just a matter of timing.

My last statement reminds me of the old "....we've already determined that my darling, now we are just haggling over the price!".

Flieger

 

[Murf2]

Can i get links to those sources? Thanks!

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/executive-summary-2024.pdf

Lots of information here.

 

[2017ish]

Have you heard? It may not survive. It's a fraction of the total budget but it's being slashed while bloated budgets for defense go untouched.
Like many others I care about the fact that its' earmarked funds we invested in for 4+decades have been wrongfully raided before. ..

I hadn't heard or read any of this. To ensure I was not grossly misinformed, I used the handy Internet search engine to uncover the numbers from the Department of Treasury. Social security is easily the largest federal spending category (22%) followed by interest on debt (14%), and national defense/Medicare/"health" tied at number 3-5 (13%), according to Treasury's 2025 fiscal year to date data. Fiscal Data Explains Federal Spending

As for the earmarking of social security funds as an investment, I just verified that Flemming v. Nestor, 363 U.S. 603 (1960), was not reversed without my knowledge. It was not. Thus, there remains no "right" to social security if the feds decide to bar you from it; it cannot be deemed an individual's "investment;" and to my knowledge, no funds have ever been earmarked within that system--our taxes were used to pay the benefits of existing beneficiaries.

At the same time, I'm beginning to get a glimmer of hope. Perhaps I was overly conservative in not including social payments in our retirement planning. We'll see in the next decade, but for now, I'll keep taking the approach I adopted in the 1980s.

 

[jollystomper]

"Be greedy when others are fearful. Be fearful when others are greedy" .

Having invested in the market since the early 1980s, this too shall pass .

 

[Closet_Gamer]

I do hate that word entitlements when it comes to SS - it makes it sound like a handout..but anyway… relative to excesses in Pentagon spending and other FAR larger “fractions” of the total pie, SS is miniscule so prioritizing that is way questionable.

True, and hope you are right that the end justifies the means…manufacturing infrastructure does take time… As far as the PF,
my cash is essentially what sits in ultra short bond funds or MM and i typically just keep a minimal amt. uninvested for cash flow.

Dealing with the volatility is the basis for the 50/50 allocation, which includes reliable div income that it provides so there is
technically a plan in place…tho, keeping calm is still a little
challenging right about now.

WADR, that’s just not accurate on the federal budget.

In 2024:

Social security: $1.5T
Healthcare: $1.9T (Medicare, Medicaid, ACA, etc.

Defense: $0.85T

There is an old quip that the US govt is now an insurance company with an army. With interest costs now roughly on par with defense outlays, I would amend that to say “…and army and a credit card.”

Regardless, nothing has actually happened that puts even a scratch on SS spending.

 

[marko]

I made the mistake of thinking 2008-9 was “different” and took about a third of my assets into Treasuries.

So.........

 

[Car-Guy]

Chairman Powell said today: it will be "higher inflation and slower growth."

Ah yes, he's the "transitory" guy. Nailed that one didn't he.

 

[jazz4cash]

It’s always different every time. What’s not different is the market always recovers but it could take a very long time. Past performance is no guaranty, right? With a 50/50 portfolio, you can ride out any instability for many years and give equities time to recover as they always have. If equities go to zero, we’ll likely have bigger issues to contend with. There are many things happening beyond the financial markets contributing to anxiety for many of us. Many things are beyond our control but you do have control of your AA. Nothing is more important than being able to sleep well at night. Search the forum for “won the game” or 100% safe portfolio for insights.

 

[latexman]

Look at the two extremes.

After a dismal start, can good times be had? Yes, it’s happened before. For example, Apple, Nvidis, MS.

After a dismal start, can the SHTF? Yes, it’s happened before. For example, Hitler.

This is probably somewhere between the two extremes, but hindsight is 20/20.

 

[Gumby]

Thread closed due to Godwin's Law.