When do you die?

[Koolau]

I read somewhere that statistically every year past 90 you are 50% less likely to be alive the next...or something like that...don't quote me.
would be able to make it work on her own.

I run calculations to 100, but I likely will die sometime between 85 and 92. I figure a 95% chance of that. So, I plan for 92..and can see the data up to 100 if need be.

Lots of unknowns though. What will future inflation be? What will stock returns be? What will SS benefits look like? Will my pension convert to cash value at some point?

92 is the year I plan firmly to.

The most stress and highest SORR will be when I retire during my kid's college years. They have some college money, but with the way prices are, they won't have enough to cover it all. So they may need to punt there. IF any of our folks pass along, that will definitely free up some cash to help cover the college, and perhaps Grandparents kick in some which I am not counting on.

I just know, the first five years of my/our plan will be stressed in a downturn with college expenses so I need to save a BUNCH of cash in the next 10 yrs to retire at 50 to 52 like our plan states.

Here is a table that suggest early 90s you have about a 20% chance of dying each year and by late 90s, it's almost a 40% chance of dying each year. Not sure what that info does for us, but it is interesting - especially since I have known SEVERAL people who have lived to or past 100 (106 is the record.) YMMV


https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

 

[Koolau]

Those are fair points and I fully understand the thought on staying in my lane and these suggestions have been neither unwelcome nor welcome... uncle just listens and nods and doesn't say much.

I will be the executor and my aunt has dementia so if my uncle predeceases her then making sure that she is taken care of will be my responsibility. There is no way that she can continue to live alone if my uncle predeceases her so she will likely need to move to memory care and it would make things a lot easier for me and an easier transition for her if they were in a CCRC that includes memory care... she would just move down the hall to a different part of the facility... not to mention easier for him in the meantime.

If your aunt is already showing signs of dementia, she will not qualify for most CCRC type facilities. That doesn't mean she could not get into similar care, but it would be without the advantages of a CCRC as far as moving from independent to assisted to memory care - with guarantee of continued care even if money runs out. That's why they all recommend going in before you "need" to. Best of luck to you as you navigate the issues of care for your aunt. It's complicated (and expensive) but doable. Blessings.

 

[audreyh1]

We’ve been gifting the whole time since retiring. The older we get, the more our gifting increases. I prefer to give what we can while we are alive.

I was recently exploring the blueprintincome site (another thread here) and it had a longevity calculator. https://www.blueprintincome.com/tools/life-expectancy-calculator-how-long-will-i-live/

According to that calculator I have a 50% chance of making it to 94, and a 75% chance I’ll make it to 86.

 

[TheWizard]

I'll have to go with the latter since $4m is a ways away. Plus I live in TX, without any tax on estate or gifting.

I did just have an epiphany for LTC & gifting. If you want to cover for the 5 yr look back rule, just keep a 5 yr cushion on hand and then go to Medicaid. Anyone else thinking about this?

Medicaid?
WTF??

 

[Finance Dave]

We don't have children, so we are discussing a scholarship foundation at a University. My DW and I are very proud of our academic pursuits and grateful for what education has done for us throughout our lives...not just in terms of income but also quality of life, friendships, integrity, and so on. DW was the first one EVER in her family lineage to go to college.

If we had children (assuming they were responsible with money), we would be giving them the annual gifting amount annually right now...or as much as we felt we could afford to give at least.