Those following this thread may know that I have been a long time fan of EGRIX. While I still believe it is an excellent fund that succeeds by going where other funds may fear to tread, it recently has seen some headwinds likely due to the war with Iran and its knock on effects particularly with inflation. See the most recent EGRIX commentary attached below for Q1. The most recent CPI and PPI reports have confirmed what we already instinctively knew that inflation has turned an ugly corner and is heading up rather than down. This means the next forecasted Fed action will be to raise rather then lower interest rates adding a headwind against
all fixed income investments. See -
While it is certainly possible that these expectations will change, my opinion is if the war with Iran were over in the near term, its inflation effects will be lasting and additive to the tariff effects. I also think the war will not be over soon.
Hence as a defensive measure I am selling approximately 22% of my EGRIX position and replacing it with QMHNX, a managed futures strategy that can benefit from inflation via its commodity exposure and is somewhat less exposed to the overvalued equity market.
Of course I could be wrong, so lets see how this plays out for the next 6-12 months.