Worst time to retire since 2008?

[jollystomper]

One reason we planned to have several years of expenses in cash is for times like these. I also look at "what happens if the market falls by 50%", and if I am still comfortable with the number no worries. Quite frankly I am more tempted to "market time" and put more money into equities right now . When one gets to FIRE via long term planning, no need to suddenly switch to short term planning.

The added health situation, in my view, is a long term consideration that should take a priority over short term market concerns.

 

[USGrant1962]

So I see people mentioning 2022 being a bad year in different threads. I'm 100% stocks and retired in 2017 at 51 with no pension. I had no memory of what happened in 2022 so I just looked it up, S&P 500 was down 18%.

Stocks had a fairly routine down year, that wasn't the issue in 2022. The problem was inflation hitting 9.1% and the resulting Fed interest rate spikes. The worst retirement years modeled in FIRECalc (for example) are driven by loss of spending power due to inflation. That loss essentially never recovers.

 

[Cassius King]

By the end of 2022 the market had "rebounded" to be down only 18%. The markets were down 27% at the lows. Add in inflation going crazy and interest rates following......
I did some nice buying in July/Aug of '22.

 

[yakers]

I plan for what I can plan and take whatever I get. Retired @57 in March 2008, liked my job but a year earlier I spent a night in the ER and it changed my thinking, into retirement had stage IV throat cancer, DW later had lung cancer. We are carrying on pretty well with a lot of travel and gifts to charities, children & grands. We have been remarkably lucky, planning helped but life will play out as it will.

 

[bloom2708]

My last day is April 17, 2026. That virtually guarantees WW3, stock market to 0 and money markets breaking the buck.

Hopefully not, but those that retired in 2008-2010 have come out ok. HODL on!

 

[engineernerd]

Hello all - first new thread. My FIRE date is set for 5/4. Will turn 57 that week and been planning this for last 2 years after getting an advanced prostate cancer diagnosis.

This question is academic as my timing won’t move due to wanting to maximize our “go-go years”. DW is 55 and also ready.

I know these types of scenarios are baked into the FIRE calculator and others, but wondering if others are on similar timeline and reconsidering based on current events?

One plus of putting your trust in the historical methodology of FIRECalc and FI Calc is that all your decisionmaking happens upfront, and thereafter your investing can be on autopilot. You can just do whatever your most-successful calculator runs assumed you would do.

For those of us who don't enjoy active investing and would rather spend our time and mental energy elsewhere, the plain-vanilla investing choices available in these calculators are a plus. And it's reassuring that the impact of choosing different fixed-income options in FIRECalc seems to be minimal, so choosing the laziest option doesn't come with a high cost.

Yes, you could do better some other way, no question. But AFAIK the data aren't there to tell you WHICH way is better. Anything you pick might turn out to do worse.

Once you've retired it should not be necessary to re-run FIRECalc again. Doing so after a period of poor portfolio performance amounts to doublecounting the bad news, IOW stacking the start of a bad retirement "run" now on top of the worst the past had to offer.

BTW, running the "Investigate changing my allocation" analysis can show you how much you want in stocks for the best odds of success.

 

[Onda]

I retired during the market lows of 2022 and stayed 100% invested in equities because I was prepared for the possibility that markets can be low when retirement begins.
No regrets.

 

[kumquat]

I retired in June of 2007. By the end of 2008 our stash had dropped 35ish%. Scared us a bit but after living of it for 18 years, it is 3 times what it was at the start. Go for it

 

[Dtail]

So there you have it with all the responses.
When have you seen a thread when a poster stated that they wish they retired later?

 

[CalBird]

Another more important decision to make would be when is born. It will “largely” decide what your cumulation phase would look like, bear or bull, and how SORR would affect your retirement stash.

Oh no, you can’t make that decision yourself .

 

[TNHiker]

Hello all - first new thread. My FIRE date is set for 5/4. Will turn 57 that week and been planning this for last 2 years after getting an advanced prostate cancer diagnosis.

This question is academic as my timing won’t move due to wanting to maximize our “go-go years”. DW is 55 and also ready.

I know these types of scenarios are baked into the FIRE calculator and others, but wondering if others are on similar timeline and reconsidering based on current events?

I had retired in September 2025 and turned 57 in November but, out of the blue, DW got aggressive gallbladder cancer and was gone in late October after only 8 weeks. Never take a day for granted.

The one thing I didn't do was model such an early reversion back to single status from a tax perspective. Regardless, I had planned for a few years of cash in buffer any downturn and I'm not turning back. Life is too short.

 

[Markola]

….wondering if others are on similar timeline and reconsidering based on current events?

I’m 60 and cannot remember any moment when current events were going swimmingly.

 

[FlyingCircus]

All of the above posts about time being greater than money are true. However, ....Again, IF someone was on the fence, it might just be a good time to wait a little while and see if a buyout comes along.

This ^. FIRECalc etc says I've got enough, have a decent pension to cut the drawdown, have 2+ years of planned drawdowns in a 3 yr SPDA and a cash slice in the portfolio for the immediate 3 years. OTOH, I'm (reluctantly) in line for supposedly a lower stress & salary job which would bring me plenty of money to spend on enjoyable experiences & travel. In case this market goes south and in case this time it doesn't snap back in Vs aka 2022, 2020, 2018...

Fence Citter.

 

[flyingaway]

If you have enough money per the 4% rule, any day is a good day to retire.

 

[monte1022]

The thing with retirement is that it goes fast. I've been out 3 years and it feels like I RE'd last year. I just got off the phone with a friend who gave up work Feb 2, 2025 and he said the same thing. Take the time when you can GET the time. Once you are gone, and it can happen in an instant, there is no more time for you. It really is that simple.

 

[marko]

I'm just backing up the bus here for a minute, trying to connect our current economy with being "the worst time to retire since 2008".

 

[bloom2708]

The S&P lost 65% in 2008-2009. This (so far) has dip has been not much at all like then.

But who knows how all the private equity junk plays out. The next catalyst is unknown until it is known. Then you find out it was known the whole time.

 

[TickTock]

I'm just backing up the bus here for a minute, trying to connect our current economy with being "the worst time to retire since 2008".

My take on it (and I could be wrong) is how highly the equity markets are valued now (P/E, CAPE10, and so on). Periods of high returns are followed by periods of low returns. The problem being, of course, that you can see the transitions only in the rear-view mirror.

 

[marko]

My take on it (and I could be wrong) is how highly the equity markets are valued now (P/E, CAPE10, and so on). Periods of high returns are followed by periods of low returns. The problem being, of course, that you can see the transitions only in the rear-view mirror.

Sure, markets go up, markets have corrections, markets have recessions.

Does our current economy herald a 2008 debacle? Time will tell but I struggle to see any connection. Delay one's early retirement, especially with a serious health concern?

As several here, myself included have noted, even those retiring directly into the jaws of 2008 didn't have a notable long term impact.

"The worst time to retire since 2008?" There's always something going on personally or globally that makes it "a really bad time to retire".

 

[Markola]

My take on it (and I could be wrong) is how highly the equity markets are valued now (P/E, CAPE10, and so on). Periods of high returns are followed by periods of low returns. The problem being, of course, that you can see the transitions only in the rear-view mirror.

Domestic equity is highly valued, yes.

 

[kingfisher]

It really depends on your asset allocation, if you are all in on QQQ or even VTI, probably yes.

 

[AZsniper]

Maybe, maybe not. But I have been retired 4 months and am living my best life! Have a plan to retire with different economic situations, not just your first year or so! I have some cash buffer so I won't stress about selling in a down market.

 

[OK EE]

Maybe, maybe not. But I have been retired 4 months and am living my best life! Have a plan to retire with different economic situations, not just your first year or so! I have some cash buffer so I won't stress about selling in a down market.

Right. If you didn't have a plan to cover a 1 month market blip you were inadequately prepared.

 

[NomDeER]

I know these types of scenarios are baked into the FIRE calculator and others, but wondering if others are on similar timeline and reconsidering based on current events?

Don't let a small dip - or even a big dip - mess with your head or your retirement plans. I retired and got my last paycheck around the market high in early 2022. Then stuff happened. I'm glad I retired before it happened because I would have second guessed my plans and perhaps delayed retirement and stayed at a stressful job I did not like. That would have been a mistake.

If things are stressing you out, remind yourself again that FireCalc's results include lots of much more difficult financial times. Then go and enjoy your retirement.

 

[CalBird]

There are statistics that more people tend to retire during bull market year than bear market which is understandable. Sadly many people would get scared by down market and delay their long waiting retirement, and miss out a few precious years in the late phase of life.