Worst time to retire since 2008?

[marko]

There are statistics that more people tend to retire during bull market year than bear market which is understandable. Sadly many people would get scared by down market and delay their long waiting retirement, and miss out a few precious years in the late phase of life.

And as someone upthread noted, if you can survive nicely having retired into a bear market you've already passed the stress test.

 

[CalBird]

And as someone uptrend noted, if you can survive nicely having retired into a bear market you've already passed the stress test.

Absolutely! The rest of the retirement should be a walk in the park.

 

[audreyh1]

Absolutely! The rest of the retirement should be a walk in the park.

You hope, but don’t take it for granted.

 

[CalBird]

You hope, but don’t take it for granted.

Of course, you may share some firsthand experience how it feels “being there, done that”.

 

[audreyh1]

Of course, you may share some firsthand experience how it feels “being there, done that”.

Yeah, but I’m not done yet!

 

[Koolau]

Retired in late '05. There were likely worse times than that to retire, but not too many I would submit.

There is one school of thought that retiring into a slumping market might make you more frugal (initially) and set you up for a great recovery in a year or three.

My thinking is that if you're not ready to retire because the market is slumping you're (wait for it) not ready to retire at all but YMMV.

 

[Markola]

I didn’t plan it but I retired during the first summer of Covid, when spending was, necessarily, bare bones while we were stuck at home. It was kind of a useful spending reset to launch this new phase, providing an example of a lifestyle that we could, in fact, live if the SHTF again, financially or otherwise.

 

[YellowSubmarine]

Yes, generally now is the worse time to retire especially if you carry any debt. And if you are below the Medicare cut off, medical related can be a real burden imho.

 

[Markola]

Yes, generally now is the worse time to retire especially if you carry any debt. And if you are below the Medicare cut off, medical related can be a real burden imho.

Will you explain further? I have no basis to say you’re wrong, but your opinion feels akin to attempted market timing.

 

[YellowSubmarine]

Will you explain further? I have no basis to say you’re wrong, but your opinion feels akin to attempted market timing.

I would never retire or start a business when the market is in chaos. I need to see a landing point. I feel these two items share many reward/risk factors and timing is everything -need a bottom -at least in sight. Also debt in market free fall from inflation, war, dollar debasing and leadership concerns make all decision more detrimental for personal success.

 

[Markola]

I share your macro concerns. However, in my life, when I’ve made investing decisions based on my interpretation of macro events, and what is likely to happen next, I’ve usually been humbled by what actually happened instead. 8.3 billion people doing things makes for too complex of a system to predict events consistently for me, at least.

 

[Koolau]

I would never retire or start a business when the market is in chaos. I need to see a landing point. I feel these two items share many reward/risk factors and timing is everything -need a bottom -at least in sight. Also debt in market free fall from inflation, war, dollar debasing and leadership concerns make all decision more detrimental for personal success.

I understand your thinking and I'm guessing I'd chicken out if markets were tanking at the time I'd proposed retirement. But, in theory, such downturns happen every few years. If you retired and then the downturn happened, most of us would just take it in stride (as I did in 2008 after retiring in late 2005). So what is actually "special" about a downturn just before you retire? It's a hypothetical and rhetorical question, I know.

 

[RetiredHappy]

We left megacorp in early 2

I would never retire or start a business when the market is in chaos. I need to see a landing point. I feel these two items share many reward/risk factors and timing is everything -need a bottom -at least in sight. Also debt in market free fall from inflation, war, dollar debasing and leadership concerns make all decision more detrimental for personal success.

We left our jobs at megacorp in 2008 and started a new business the same year. Market was in chaos/down and it didn't change our plans.

 

[Al18]

Since 2018, there have been 6 market corrections (10% down from recent high) or bear markets (20% down from recent high). Charles Schwab

You should structure your finances so you have a couple of years of fixed income when you retire, so this volatility doesn't bother you.

 

[YellowSubmarine]

I understand your thinking and I'm guessing I'd chicken out if markets were tanking at the time I'd proposed retirement. But, in theory, such downturns happen every few years. If you retired and then the downturn happened, most of us would just take it in stride (as I did in 2008 after retiring in late 2005). So what is actually "special" about a downturn just before you retire? It's a hypothetical and rhetorical question, I know.

I started my business in 1982, hyper inflation was easing but interest rates were very high. I did all cash except for my company car. With the right mechanics in place and expertise, it can be done earlier. I retired in 2011 as the effects of 2008 were easing, but I was debt free and my portfolio was at an all time high that year. In both cases I could have gone the conventional or optional route and start business and retire earlier, but I wanted all my bases covered. Extra cautious and I tell all to play it safe when it's an option. No regrets.

 

[tulak]

Nothing wrong with debt. I’ll never pay off my mortgage, unless rates are less than 2.75% or I move.

Riskier to pay off the debt and have a smaller portfolio, at least for me.

 

[YellowSubmarine]

Nothing wrong with debt. I’ll never pay off my mortgage, unless rates are less than 2.75% or I move.

Riskier to pay off the debt and have a smaller portfolio, at least for me.

That's what Congress thinks as well -'nothing wrong with debt'. Not my style, never was. I like to clear the books of any deficiency asap.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Nothing wrong with debt. I’ll never pay off my mortgage, unless rates are less than 2.75% or I move.

Riskier to pay off the debt and have a smaller portfolio, at least for me.

We would not know if there is anything wrong with debt as we have not had any for the last 26 years. We forgot what it is like to have any debt. Unfortunately, your statement highlighted by me is why some folks are house/debt poor and cannot afford $4.00 Gas or live month to month. Just ask some of the TSA workers. It seems to be the way of most of Middle America today, I cannot speak for other countries. I would much prefer America had no debt, it would be better for all of us.

 

[Fermion]

Bonds are paying high enough now that there is no real need to be "all in" on the stock market, especially with the impending AI.dot.com crazy. 5% yield on 20 year treasury, as guaranteed as apple pie. $2 million in that, maybe a million in the stock market and whatever SS you get, and I will guarantee you will not be eating cat food, unless that is your thing.

 

[tulak]

Debt is just a tool.

Without it, most of us would still be renters. We are lucky to have 30 year fixed mortgages in the US.

 

[cyber888]

Hello all - first new thread. My FIRE date is set for 5/4. Will turn 57 that week and been planning this for last 2 years after getting an advanced prostate cancer diagnosis.

This question is academic as my timing won’t move due to wanting to maximize our “go-go years”. DW is 55 and also ready.

I know these types of scenarios are baked into the FIRE calculator and others, but wondering if others are on similar timeline and reconsidering based on current events?

Keep at least 4-5 years in liquid cash to survive a market downturn. We may have Stagflation. Slow growth and high inflation in 2026-2027. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Dtail]

That's what Congress thinks as well -'nothing wrong with debt'. Not my style, never was. I like to clear the books of any deficiency asap.

Same here but can see the attraction of a low rate fixed mortgage. Not in the cards for me though.

 

[COcheesehead]

Same here but can see the attraction of a low rate fixed mortgage. Not in the cards for me though.

My mortgage arbitrage was a once in a lifetime experience, but I am glad I had the opportunity. Using a 3% mortgage with 6% fixed income doesn’t present itself often.

 

[cyber888]

Bonds are paying high enough now that there is no real need to be "all in" on the stock market, especially with the impending AI.dot.com crazy. 5% yield on 20 year treasury, as guaranteed as apple pie. $2 million in that, maybe a million in the stock market and whatever SS you get, and I will guarantee you will not be eating cat food, unless that is your thing.

Correct. Well, it's around 4.75% on 30 Years.

 

[MC Rider]

I would never retire or start a business when the market is in chaos.

I started a business consisting of me, myself, and I in 2009 after layoffs, and nobody was hiring. Then retired in 2022 when things were going down in a hand basket. Again. The timing was not my choice and maybe not ideal, but it's working fine and it is what it is. You play the cards you are dealt.