You did much better at explaining than I did! It's a confusing concept at first, so it's great you took the time to lay it out much more clearly.
Three things:
- I am really sorry for what is coming next
- Talk to me like a 5-year-old
- It seems to me I would be better off continuing with mutual funds in 401k/IRA.
I added more specific account information in case it was needed.
Retirement Accounts: 1.86M
- Fidelity Rollover IRA 1.2M = 94% TM/500/TDF, 6% MM/CD
- TSP taxable 401k 660k = 96% SP500, 4% TDF2040, current allocation is 100% SP500 (50k per year for the next 16 months-ish)
Individual Accounts: 3.35M
- Fidelity/Vanguard Brokerage 2.4M = 74% TM/500/TDF, 26% MM/CD
- Brick and mortar banks 950k = 17% cash, 83% CD
1. You still get to keep your sense of safety (AA) by holding a large portion of CD/MM/Tbills
If the CD/MM/Tbills were in the retirement accounts and I needed the money before I retired, the tax bill would be obscene. It is hard to imagine with 950k in brick-and-mortar banks and an estimated equity harvest of 150K when I sell my west coast house in less than 2 years that I would need that much money handy---and yet, I have a vivid imagination.
2. You are paying marginal/higher tax rate on the returns from CD/MM/Tbills.
This is an unfortunate fact that is made worse by NIIT and high California state taxes. Right now, I am working so NIIT applies to me in my brokerage and bank accounts no matter what investment instruments I chose. That's why I have started buying more Tbills. At least with those I can offset some state tax and still have my money handy.
3. Your 401K/IRA will grow at a slower pace because CD/MM/Tbills return less on average which will reduce your eventual RMDs.
I have read about this recommendation before, but I don’t understand why it is a good thing. I have been thinking about it for two days and my brain hurts. In fact, I made a spreadsheet which did not clear the issue up at all. See below. It seems to me I would be better off continuing with mutual funds in 401k/IRA.
Basically, I considered 4 simple scenarios that all begin with $100,000, span a 30-year period, assume an ordinary income tax rate of 35% and a capital gains tax rate of 20%. NIIT were ignored in all scenarios. CDs assumed a 5% rate of return; Mutual Funds assumed a dividend rate of 10%. Share price was ignored (not sure if that made a difference).
1. After tax brokerage account, investing in a CD that pays 5% per year. Gains are taxed yearly at a rate of 35% (ordinary income tax rate).
Year 0 = $65,000 (after tax amount available to buy the CD)
Year 1 = $67,113 ($3250 interest income earned - $1137 taxes due = $2,113)
Year 30 = $169,674 This is the final account value, and no additional taxes are due because they have been paid yearly for 30 years.
2. Tax deferred 401k, investing in a CD that pays 5% per year. Investment and gains are taxed 35% in year 30.
Year 0 = $100,000 (pretax amount available to buy the CD)
Year 1 = $105,000
Year 30 = $432,194
Final account value = $280,926 ($432,194 x 65%)
3. After tax brokerage account, investing in a Total Market Fund (TMF) that returns 10% per year in dividends. Dividends are reinvested. Gains are taxed yearly at a rate of 20% (capital gains tax rate).
Year 0 = $65,000 (after tax amount available to buy TMF)
Year 1 = $70,200 ($6,500 DIV income - $1,300 taxes due = $5,200)
Year 30 = $654,073 This is the final account value, and no additional taxes are due because they have been paid yearly for 30 years
4. Tax deferred 401k, investing in a TMF that returns 10% per year in dividends. Dividends are reinvested. Investment and gains are taxed 35% in year 30.
Year 0 = $100,000 (pretax amount available to buy the TMF)
Year 1 = $110,000
Year 30 = $1,744,940
Final account value = $1,134,211 ($1,744,940 x 65%)
after tax brokerage CD | $169,674 | | tax deferred 401k CD | $280,926 |
tax deferred 401k TMF | $1,134,211 | | after tax brokerage TMF | $654,073 |
30 Year Account Value | $1,303,885 | | 30 Year Account Value | $934,999 |