Your 2020 prediction for SP500

[NW-Bound]

OK. That is less strict than each of the quarter earnings having to be positive as I thought.

 

[RetireAge50]

My chart says stocks are currently 3% undervalued so I'm going with 13% for next year.

 

[Canoeboy]

I predict (with a degree of certainty) the Dow will open 2020 at 28,538.44 and close the year somewhere between 15,000 and 50,000.
Beyond that it’s a crapshoot....

 

[robnplunder]

Voted 5-10%, even though IIRC there actually have not been many years in this range.
Only 2+ years retired, so this would still be good enough to push SORR for another year.

I voted the same. US stock market had a nice run but global economy isn't doing well which will eventually spill over the US economy and stock market. That is my uneducated prediction.

 

[Lsbcal]

Only one more day before the poll closes !!!

 

[Jerry1]

Going with 5% - 10%. I think things will cool off but stay positive.

 

[Fermion]

5 to 10 up sounds about right. We have a China trade deal that looks like it might go through finally. SpaceX is going to activate Starlink which might disrupt and stir up competition in broadband, causing more investments. Electric vehicles will continue to gain market share which will cause more investments.

It really doesn't seem like a year that we could drop 20% and stay there, but who knows for sure?

 

[USGrant1962]

This article says the average gain after a double-digit year has been another 11.5%. Interesting that it is that high but momentum in the economy and the markets is real.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/12/what-big-stock-market-returns-in-2019-mean-for-2020/

 

[SnowBound]

Oil exports will go up, energy stocks will go down. Tech stocks will go up and more Tech CEO's will loose their jobs. Wildly guessing a less than average year for stocks, only because of the big December run up (market needs to average out).

However don't invest commodities, they are always bottom dwellers in an average year.

 

[FIREarly]

I'm prepared for a major buying spree.

Badger is right, IF there is a big drop, treat it like a garage sell and buy at a great discount!

 

[Lsbcal]

The poll is now closed and we had a great turnout ... 152 votes!

This is a pessimistic crowd here. Fully 75% of the respondents thought the SP500 in 2020 will be below the 11% historical return average.

Trying to be an optimist, I think this degree of pessimism indicates we are not in the "irrational exuberance" phase. Maybe more good surprises for 2020? I hope so.

 

[easysurfer]

I think 2020 is not going to be a good year for the SP500.

I didn't vote since the poll is already closed, but would have picked down worse than -20%.

 

[Cessna152]

I voted for a loss worse than 20% because so many stock valuation metrics are already high relative to past values. I felt that made it vulnerable to significant events portending bad economic repercussions. I'm not sure if the killing of Qassem Soleimani is the start of a series of such events, but unexpected events like that seem to be inevitable given enough time.

 

[NW-Bound]

I just chose "worse than -20%", in the hope that I will be wrong as usual.

If I turn out to be right, don't blame me.

The poll is now closed and we had a great turnout ... 152 votes!

This is a pessimistic crowd here. Fully 75% of the respondents thought the SP500 in 2020 will be below the 11% historical return average.

Trying to be an optimist, I think this degree of pessimism indicates we are not in the "irrational exuberance" phase. Maybe more good surprises for 2020? I hope so.

They say that when it comes to market movement, the average man is usually wrong. And as stated, I do not mind to be wrong on this matter.

There is still some hope, the way the poll result turns out. Heh heh heh...

Expect the worst, but invest for the best? Well, not quite that way, but I am still 57% in stocks, after lowering the AA from 75+%.

At 2020 year end, please remind us of this poll so we can recall how we were thinking at this moment.

 

[GravitySucks]

3,756 / 15.76% add in another 2%if you count reinvested dividends.

 

[Lsbcal]

I had forgotten all about this poll. The world has changed so much in one year! Nice to see that we had a good year. I goofed up some in my decisions but still had an up year.

Thanks for posting and reminding us of this poll GravitySucks.