Just go for it ?

[skyline]

To the OP - I guess the good news is that you have lots of options - and based on your clarification of your expenses, it looks like all options will work out just fine, esp. if you have a little flexibility in adjusting your spending during any 'lean' years.

As for the timing of selling your house - if I was in your same situation, I would try to sell as soon as possible. I think most people would agree that current prices are too high in most markets (esp SoCal). But prices fall slowly due to seller resistance. So prices are likely to slowly keep sinking until prices level off (relative to inflation). The question is, what adjustment does it take to 'level off', and how long does it take to work through the inertia?

I tend to agree with the following article - which points to about a 20-25% adjustment over 5 years. But regardless of how long it takes, the article implies that you can take advantage of the still-inflated prices due to seller resistance if you sell now vs. waiting until prices equalize.

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/103872/Real-Estate:-Buy,-Sell,-or-Hold?

As I said earlier - I think you're set either way - but if I were you, I would consider my options to be either a) keep working, or b) sell the house as quickly as possible, move immediately after the sale and rent for 6 months, then buy once you have a better read on your new neighborhood.

BTW, I'm also thinking of relocating to OR, although I'm thinking central OR rather than coastal (I want drier weather). Have you considered central OR (like Bend)? If so, why'd you decide to go more coastal?

 

[Fire48]

Thanks for all the encouragement and great advise ! I would agree that the selling of the house is the one difficult component in the plan.

Some time ago I set a FIRE date of my 50th birthday. Don't no why it just seemed like the right time. That is 16 months from now March 2009. My crystal ball says that housing will bottom out in 2008 and starting to get better in 2009. They are not making anymore land in Orange County, the job market is strong, the big housing developers have put new developments on hold so hopefully the inventory will reduce.

SimpleMom hit it right on I am ready to downshift and find some meaningful part time work that will allow more family/ kid time. Nice to see someone is making it work with a similiar situation. We lived in No Cal for 10 years, loved it.

Between now and my 50th birthday I will start moving in that direction knowing that if work really gets too bad I can walk and with some belt tightening will be OK.

In the meantime the wife and I are planning a getaway over the holidays to check out Central Oregon.

In regards to relocating to Oregon we were originally looking at Ashand/ Medford. We spent a week there last summer. Very beautiful area but we thought it was a bit remote. I have a good friend who lives in Bend and have visited, again very beautiful but the housing/ cost of living was skyrocketing faster than California. We liked the looks of Salem or Eugene. Small cities with colleges, close to Portland, lower housing/ cost of living, green, wine country, hour to the coast hour to the mountains the big question is can we handle the rain ?

 

[twaddle]

Fire48, I used to live in OC (I left before people started calling it "The OC" ).

You're right about the builders. There's significantly less new inventory overhang than there was during the last bust. But, as you know, OC is the epicenter of the mortgage industry. Something like 50% of the OC job growth in the last few years came from housing. Job growth will not save OC.

Now, take a look at the following graph, and ask yourself if you really want to bet on an OC housing recovery in one year.

Even if you're right, it wouldn't hurt to start trying to sell your place now, would it?