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$423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-06-2006, 01:13 PM   #1
 
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$423,000,000,000.00

Projected Trade Defecit for '06 for the US , current rate of growth could see it hit a trillion before 2015.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-06-2006, 01:33 PM   #2
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

So, Howard, buy something made in the USA, to help us out... :P

Oh, wait a minute, we don't actually make anything anymore...
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-06-2006, 05:38 PM   #3
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard
Projected Trade* Defecit for '06 for the US , current rate of growth could see it hit a trillion before 2015.
The trade deficit is as outdated & irrelevant as the methods of calculating the unemployment rate or the CPI. Garbage in, garbage out, but great alarmist journalism-- especially per capita.

The trade deficit calculation doesn't account for the #1 American export-- intellectual property.

When the Treasury holds an auction and no one shows up-- THAT's when it's time to start worrying.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-06-2006, 05:53 PM   #4
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

Saw a guy on CNBC that showed a pie chart of the trade deficit vs the total capital goods in the US. The trade deficit slice was so small he had to pull out the label for it and point at it. I think his point was that while the trade deficit is important as a standalone number, the "loss" as a function of our total capital holdings was miniscule.

Note that i'm not an economist, dont play one on tv, and didnt even stay at a holiday inn last night.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-06-2006, 06:22 PM   #5
 
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

Nords, actually the number 1 import for the US is intellectual property, be it Viagra that was developed in the UK, RIM developed in Canada, or all those Immigrants who moved to the US and started corporations.

I am an Economist, the bubbleheads at CNBC are trying to mask the real facts, the US debt to the rest of the world is growing, the greenback is no longer the reserve Currency, and nations will stop accepting the US Currency.

I have lightened up as much as possible, US holdings are less than 20% of my portfolio, I have chosen to buy commodity based companies like Alcoa, Schlumerger etc

I am not a totally buy a gun and a cabin in Montana mentality, but some day, the bills have to be paid, the US has some hard lessons ahead.

I have great faith in the US and in its' abilities to survive, but there are going to be some days of hard medicines ahead.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-06-2006, 06:26 PM   #6
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

Montana is in Canada now?

Man I gotta stay current with the news.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-06-2006, 06:38 PM   #7
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard
Nords, actually the number 1 import for the US is intellectual property, be it Viagra that was developed in the UK, RIM developed in Canada, or all those Immigrants who moved to the US and started corporations.

I am an Economist, the bubbleheads at CNBC are trying to mask the real facts, the US debt to the rest of the world is growing, the greenback is no longer the reserve Currency, and nations will stop accepting the US Currency.

I have lightened up as much as possible, US holdings are less than 20% of my portfolio, I have chosen to buy commodity based companies like Alcoa, Schlumerger etc

I am not a totally buy a gun and a cabin in Montana mentality, but some day, the bills have to be paid, the US has some hard lessons ahead.

I have great faith in the US and in its' abilities to survive, but there are going to be some days of hard medicines ahead.
Howard, my sole point is that the trade deficit calculation algorithm is horse puckey.

I'm not qualified to debate the rest of your points (although I agree with your CNBC opinion) and I don't appreciate your bringing them up with "actually" as if you had to correct my information.* I'm not trying to claim that the U.S. has a monopoly on IP, and heaven forbid that my remarks should be interpreted as even remotely pejorative to anything Canadian.* Especially that maple-leaf chip on your shoulder.

If you want to claim that the U.S. is doomed by gloom then I won't argue.* But I wouldn't short the dollar or any U.S. stock indexes, either.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-06-2006, 06:43 PM   #8
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

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The trade deficit calculation doesn't account for the #1 American export-- intellectual property. *
We are still #1 but China made a huge jump in intellectual prop. - fastest growth out of any country if I recall correctly.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-06-2006, 10:22 PM   #9
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

So?
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-06-2006, 10:29 PM   #10
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

Howard,

Do you have data to support this:

Quote:
Nords, actually the number 1 import for the US is intellectual property,
MB
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-07-2006, 07:22 AM   #11
 
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

mb, any Researcher of note is transferred to the Head Office, look at the number of high tech industries started by recent Asian immigrants, the US is a country of immigrants, intellectual imports who left their homelands to make their fortunes in America.

Russian Jews who created the Entertainment Industry, African Americans who also made major contributions etc

What is an American but an immigrant who got here earlier than the next guy??

nords, no chip on my shoulder don't shoot the messenger, read The Economist, great article on Greenspan.(I'm an Immigrant, I don't play Hockey )

The world will want to be paid, the US will fire up the printing presses, the supply of paper will exceed the demand for paper, the value of the US Currency on the world market will go down.

Interest rates will go up to slow this currency devaluation, Real estate will start to lose value, heavily leveraged properties will be for sale.

The Chinese will sell more to their own , now increasingly wealthy people, will export less to the US.

Forearned is Forearmed.

Reduce risk, diversify investments into other currencies.

I believe it was Harry Trueman whom said what was good for GM is good for America, and we see GM sellling off assets to survive, battling higher rates to reduce its' debt, cutting off or back on benefits to Employees and to Retirees, the symbolism could not be more dramatic.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-07-2006, 07:57 AM   #12
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard
transferred to the Head Office
I would like to be transferred to the Head Office. Asap.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-07-2006, 08:12 AM   #13
 
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

CFB, remember the Ad about Charlie the Tuna??

Sorry.

David Dodge, President of Bank of Canada just gave a speech and went so far as to warn of the possibility of recession.

His concern is that Asians save and need to spend more "Americans"(some) spend and need to save more, neither appear willing to change their habits.

In Canada , and I am sure in the US as well, all towns have a Chinese Restaurant, the owner never drives a big car or lives in a big house, but when his will is read, it turns out he owns half the buildings in the town, purchased over a long time period, and purchased when people who could not afford their mortgage, sold.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-07-2006, 08:15 AM   #14
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

I'll bet that guy is pretty dang happy at the surprised looks on everyones faces at the will reading.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-07-2006, 08:25 AM   #15
 
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

CFB, the Chinese saying is, the First Generation works hard to Educate the Second Generation, so they may make money for the Third Generation to spend.

My Buddy is so stereotypical , an Engineer married to a Pharmacist, just traded in his K Car, lives in a small home, kids got Scholarships, they take the bus because he won't buy a second car, never takes Holidays, great guy, but he just cannot spend.

He is one of the nicest, quiet people you could ever meet, we became friends in Martial Arts School over 30 years ago.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-07-2006, 03:48 PM   #16
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

Quote:
So?
Just making a point that we are holding the #1 spot but others are gaining ground and could very well challenge us at some point in the future. You are right, why should we care?
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-07-2006, 06:30 PM   #17
 
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

wildcat, why should you care??

The Fed will be forced to dramatically raise Interest Rates to try to stop the devaluation of your Dollar, Houses will be dumped on the market, the biggest singe asset most people have will lose its' value, your government will eliminate a lot of things like Medicare, SS , or cut them back, your kids may move back because they lost their house, the list goes on, but you should care.

The Greenback has lost most of its' value against World Currencies, the US is not number 1, the Euro has replaced it, as has gold, the Yuan is next.

Devalued Real Estate, cheap US $, foreigners will be buying what Americans are selling.

Remember CNBC , the NEW ECONOMY etc, people were warning of the .com collapse, only a few like Mark Cuban took their money and ran.

How many people are bragging about how much their house is worth, warning bells.
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-07-2006, 06:39 PM   #18
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

So Howard:

Are you saying that the end is near.

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Re: $423,000,000,000.00
Old 02-07-2006, 07:58 PM   #19
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

The end is one day nearer than it was yesterday, that's for sure.

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Old 02-07-2006, 09:03 PM   #20
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Re: $423,000,000,000.00

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The end is one day nearer than it was yesterday, that's for sure.

And none of us are getting outta here alive !
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