H
Howard
Guest
Projected Trade Defecit for '06 for the US , current rate of growth could see it hit a trillion before 2015.
HFWR
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
So, Howard, buy something made in the USA, to help us out... 
Oh, wait a minute, we don't actually make anything anymore...
Oh, wait a minute, we don't actually make anything anymore...
The trade deficit is as outdated & irrelevant as the methods of calculating the unemployment rate or the CPI. Garbage in, garbage out, but great alarmist journalism-- especially per capita.Howard said:
The trade deficit calculation doesn't account for the #1 American export-- intellectual property.
When the Treasury holds an auction and no one shows up-- THAT's when it's time to start worrying.
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Saw a guy on CNBC that showed a pie chart of the trade deficit vs the total capital goods in the US. The trade deficit slice was so small he had to pull out the label for it and point at it. I think his point was that while the trade deficit is important as a standalone number, the "loss" as a function of our total capital holdings was miniscule.
Note that i'm not an economist, dont play one on tv, and didnt even stay at a holiday inn last night.
Note that i'm not an economist, dont play one on tv, and didnt even stay at a holiday inn last night.
OP
OP
Howard
Guest
Nords, actually the number 1 import for the US is intellectual property, be it Viagra that was developed in the UK, RIM developed in Canada, or all those Immigrants who moved to the US and started corporations.
I am an Economist, the bubbleheads at CNBC are trying to mask the real facts, the US debt to the rest of the world is growing, the greenback is no longer the reserve Currency, and nations will stop accepting the US Currency.
I have lightened up as much as possible, US holdings are less than 20% of my portfolio, I have chosen to buy commodity based companies like Alcoa, Schlumerger etc
I am not a totally buy a gun and a cabin in Montana mentality, but some day, the bills have to be paid, the US has some hard lessons ahead.
I have great faith in the US and in its' abilities to survive, but there are going to be some days of hard medicines ahead.
I am an Economist, the bubbleheads at CNBC are trying to mask the real facts, the US debt to the rest of the world is growing, the greenback is no longer the reserve Currency, and nations will stop accepting the US Currency.
I have lightened up as much as possible, US holdings are less than 20% of my portfolio, I have chosen to buy commodity based companies like Alcoa, Schlumerger etc
I am not a totally buy a gun and a cabin in Montana mentality, but some day, the bills have to be paid, the US has some hard lessons ahead.
I have great faith in the US and in its' abilities to survive, but there are going to be some days of hard medicines ahead.
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Montana is in Canada now?
Man I gotta stay current with the news.
Man I gotta stay current with the news.
Howard, my sole point is that the trade deficit calculation algorithm is horse puckey.Howard said:
I'm not qualified to debate the rest of your points (although I agree with your CNBC opinion) and I don't appreciate your bringing them up with "actually" as if you had to correct my information. I'm not trying to claim that the U.S. has a monopoly on IP, and heaven forbid that my remarks should be interpreted as even remotely pejorative to anything Canadian. Especially that maple-leaf chip on your shoulder.
If you want to claim that the U.S. is doomed by gloom then I won't argue. But I wouldn't short the dollar or any U.S. stock indexes, either.
OP
OP
Howard
Guest
mb, any Researcher of note is transferred to the Head Office, look at the number of high tech industries started by recent Asian immigrants, the US is a country of immigrants, intellectual imports who left their homelands to make their fortunes in America.
Russian Jews who created the Entertainment Industry, African Americans who also made major contributions etc
What is an American but an immigrant who got here earlier than the next guy??
nords, no chip on my shoulder don't shoot the messenger, read The Economist, great article on Greenspan.(I'm an Immigrant, I don't play Hockey )
The world will want to be paid, the US will fire up the printing presses, the supply of paper will exceed the demand for paper, the value of the US Currency on the world market will go down.
Interest rates will go up to slow this currency devaluation, Real estate will start to lose value, heavily leveraged properties will be for sale.
The Chinese will sell more to their own , now increasingly wealthy people, will export less to the US.
Forearned is Forearmed.
Reduce risk, diversify investments into other currencies.
I believe it was Harry Trueman whom said what was good for GM is good for America, and we see GM sellling off assets to survive, battling higher rates to reduce its' debt, cutting off or back on benefits to Employees and to Retirees, the symbolism could not be more dramatic.
Russian Jews who created the Entertainment Industry, African Americans who also made major contributions etc
What is an American but an immigrant who got here earlier than the next guy??
nords, no chip on my shoulder don't shoot the messenger, read The Economist, great article on Greenspan.(I'm an Immigrant, I don't play Hockey )
The world will want to be paid, the US will fire up the printing presses, the supply of paper will exceed the demand for paper, the value of the US Currency on the world market will go down.
Interest rates will go up to slow this currency devaluation, Real estate will start to lose value, heavily leveraged properties will be for sale.
The Chinese will sell more to their own , now increasingly wealthy people, will export less to the US.
Forearned is Forearmed.
Reduce risk, diversify investments into other currencies.
I believe it was Harry Trueman whom said what was good for GM is good for America, and we see GM sellling off assets to survive, battling higher rates to reduce its' debt, cutting off or back on benefits to Employees and to Retirees, the symbolism could not be more dramatic.
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Howard said:
I would like to be transferred to the Head Office. Asap.
OP
OP
Howard
Guest
CFB, remember the Ad about Charlie the Tuna??
Sorry.
David Dodge, President of Bank of Canada just gave a speech and went so far as to warn of the possibility of recession.
His concern is that Asians save and need to spend more "Americans"(some) spend and need to save more, neither appear willing to change their habits.
In Canada , and I am sure in the US as well, all towns have a Chinese Restaurant, the owner never drives a big car or lives in a big house, but when his will is read, it turns out he owns half the buildings in the town, purchased over a long time period, and purchased when people who could not afford their mortgage, sold.
Sorry.
David Dodge, President of Bank of Canada just gave a speech and went so far as to warn of the possibility of recession.
His concern is that Asians save and need to spend more "Americans"(some) spend and need to save more, neither appear willing to change their habits.
In Canada , and I am sure in the US as well, all towns have a Chinese Restaurant, the owner never drives a big car or lives in a big house, but when his will is read, it turns out he owns half the buildings in the town, purchased over a long time period, and purchased when people who could not afford their mortgage, sold.
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I'll bet that guy is pretty dang happy at the surprised looks on everyones faces at the will reading.
OP
OP
Howard
Guest
CFB, the Chinese saying is, the First Generation works hard to Educate the Second Generation, so they may make money for the Third Generation to spend.
My Buddy is so stereotypical , an Engineer married to a Pharmacist, just traded in his K Car, lives in a small home, kids got Scholarships, they take the bus because he won't buy a second car, never takes Holidays, great guy, but he just cannot spend.
He is one of the nicest, quiet people you could ever meet, we became friends in Martial Arts School over 30 years ago.
My Buddy is so stereotypical , an Engineer married to a Pharmacist, just traded in his K Car, lives in a small home, kids got Scholarships, they take the bus because he won't buy a second car, never takes Holidays, great guy, but he just cannot spend.
He is one of the nicest, quiet people you could ever meet, we became friends in Martial Arts School over 30 years ago.
OP
OP
Howard
Guest
wildcat, why should you care??
The Fed will be forced to dramatically raise Interest Rates to try to stop the devaluation of your Dollar, Houses will be dumped on the market, the biggest singe asset most people have will lose its' value, your government will eliminate a lot of things like Medicare, SS , or cut them back, your kids may move back because they lost their house, the list goes on, but you should care.
The Greenback has lost most of its' value against World Currencies, the US is not number 1, the Euro has replaced it, as has gold, the Yuan is next.
Devalued Real Estate, cheap US $, foreigners will be buying what Americans are selling.
Remember CNBC , the NEW ECONOMY etc, people were warning of the .com collapse, only a few like Mark Cuban took their money and ran.
How many people are bragging about how much their house is worth, warning bells.
The Fed will be forced to dramatically raise Interest Rates to try to stop the devaluation of your Dollar, Houses will be dumped on the market, the biggest singe asset most people have will lose its' value, your government will eliminate a lot of things like Medicare, SS , or cut them back, your kids may move back because they lost their house, the list goes on, but you should care.
The Greenback has lost most of its' value against World Currencies, the US is not number 1, the Euro has replaced it, as has gold, the Yuan is next.
Devalued Real Estate, cheap US $, foreigners will be buying what Americans are selling.
Remember CNBC , the NEW ECONOMY etc, people were warning of the .com collapse, only a few like Mark Cuban took their money and ran.
How many people are bragging about how much their house is worth, warning bells.
MasterBlaster
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2005
- Messages
- 4,391
So Howard:
Are you saying that the end is near.
Are you saying that the end is near.
cube_rat
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2005
- Messages
- 1,466
justin said:
And none of us are getting outta here alive !
M
mike-1
Guest
Howard said:
just testing till I get the hang of this thing :
(sorry about that howard but i picked on you to make my first post.)
Howard,
I think that your original point that the US economy may be headed for trouble may very well be true but if anything immigrants in the high tech industry, etc. greatly strengthens the economy. I think the fact that they continue to come here says something positive about the US and I don't buy the argument that it is bad that we continue to import intellectual capital. That is a good thing. Just ask the countries that are losing their "best and brightest."
MB, happy to have immigrants help support my standard of living and father of two asian/caucasian kids that think that I'm cheaper than any of their asian friend's parents.
I think that your original point that the US economy may be headed for trouble may very well be true but if anything immigrants in the high tech industry, etc. greatly strengthens the economy. I think the fact that they continue to come here says something positive about the US and I don't buy the argument that it is bad that we continue to import intellectual capital. That is a good thing. Just ask the countries that are losing their "best and brightest."
MB, happy to have immigrants help support my standard of living and father of two asian/caucasian kids that think that I'm cheaper than any of their asian friend's parents.
OP
OP
Howard
Guest
mb, I totally agree, I was responding to the post that said Intellecual property was the US's biggest Export, when the reverse is true, it is your biggest Import.
In Canada it is called the Brain Drain, the fact that many of our brightest and most educated sought their future in the US.
This Intellectual Import grows, Smart people generally have Smart kids, so the gift keeps giving, but Immigration needs to be skewed to that type of Immigrant, balanced with those fleeing for other reasons.
North America has gained greatly at the expense of other Nations by providing a Field of Dreams that has attracted the best talent from elsewhere.
This must continue if we are to compete, but increasingly people are staying in their home countries because the opportunties are available there.
China will soon have more millionaires than the population of Canada , and India has the fastest growing Middle Class in the world.
Hi mike.
In Canada it is called the Brain Drain, the fact that many of our brightest and most educated sought their future in the US.
This Intellectual Import grows, Smart people generally have Smart kids, so the gift keeps giving, but Immigration needs to be skewed to that type of Immigrant, balanced with those fleeing for other reasons.
North America has gained greatly at the expense of other Nations by providing a Field of Dreams that has attracted the best talent from elsewhere.
This must continue if we are to compete, but increasingly people are staying in their home countries because the opportunties are available there.
China will soon have more millionaires than the population of Canada , and India has the fastest growing Middle Class in the world.
Hi mike.
M
mike-1
Guest
Howard said:
howard .. I see you've been busy of late. Thanks for the tip you gave us. This site seems very lively.
Hello there to zipper also.
