Are hurricanes more damaging, or is there just more to damage?

[Nords]

Slate is celebrating its 10th year, and here's an interesting article speculating that hurricanes are causing more damage because there are more high-value targets, not because they're necessarily any nastier...

 

[frayne]

Makes sense to me, mother nature can be a real bitch and Al Gore is an idiot. Just my opinion though.

 

[brewer12345]

There is a LOT more coastal property in harm's way, that's for sure. I think that what has chaned recently is that storms appear to be happening more frequently. All the additional $1+MM waterfront homes are our own fault.

 

[Cut-Throat]

Makes sense to me, mother nature can be a real bitch and Al Gore is an idiot. Just my opinion though.

That would make almost all scientists in world idiots, also. :

 

[unclemick]

Al is my pal(aka not republican) - it's an election year. And I've switched from hurricane alley to tornado land. Even low value targets are a pain - when they're yours.

Now are there any geologist types out there - who wish to explain the 'other half ' of the carbon cycle?

Remember this - you don't get to take it with you(as far as I know).

ER now!

heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh

 

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

Slate is celebrating its 10th year, and here's an interesting article speculating that hurricanes are causing more damage because there are more high-value targets, not because they're necessarily any nastier...

Just spoke to a woman from Charlotte County, FL which got devastated by Charlie 2 y ago. She owned a modest business including the building it was in. 3 weeks after the destruction, she received and accepted an offer which was 300% of what she paid for it 6 years before. She told me this was routine. Bargain hunters.

Turns out that Naples, FL -- one of the most expensive real estate markets in the country -- got its start (financially) that way. Hurricaine Donna leveled it, bottom-dwellers moved in and bought the place up, and the rest is history.

I never understood why anyone would want to live in a state so subject to hurricanes. Now I live here, and think I know at least two reasons: first, there had been almost 30 years of only rare hurricaine devastation and people got complacent. Second, once you've heat-adapted, if you are not in the middle of a hurricane the weather and beaches are like heaven if you like tropical (and if you know which areas to avoid).

With New England and partis of the southeast sliding away in mud, Arizona burning, midwest blizzard-gridlocked, California burning and sliding into the ocean, etc. it's hard not to get a little fatalistic. Tampa Bay has avoided all of the hurricanes in the last few years, just dumb luck but I'll take it; they are building like crazy in these parts.

Anyhow, opportunity in crisis. It's the Wall Street way.

 

[justin]

Since we've seen 20+% property value appreciation for 5+ years straight all up and down U.S. coast, the value of the damaged houses keeps going up. What used to be a "moderately priced" $200-300k beach house a decade ago (or less) around the N.C. beaches is probably $1 million now. And development continues along the coast. I've personally spent about 90% of my time at work this year working on residential, office and retail development projects within 5-10 miles of the coast with elevations of 20 feet or less in most cases (within the typical storm surge of a big hurricane). If we get a direct hit from a category 5, I'd expect 90% loss of most of this development.

Last year's hurricane's season was bad in terms of the record number of storms, the severity of storms and the number that hit landfall.

But it doesn't take much to separate a "record season" from just another regular hurricane season. If a couple of the hurricanes that made landfall had drifted out to sea instead, no one would be talking about the hurricane season last year.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Slate is celebrating its 10th year, and here's an interesting article speculating that hurricanes are causing more damage because there are more high-value targets, not because they're necessarily any nastier...

Maybe both?

That would make almost all scientists in world idiots, also. :

Worthy of consideration.

 

[Alex]

That would make almost all scientists in world idiots, also. :

not all of them! - just the ones that blame humans for global climate change....

 

[eridanus]

Michael Crichton or 90%+ of the world's climate scientists? Hmm.

http://www.comics.com/comics/monty/archive/monty-20060526.html

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

without doubt there is more now to destroy. this is what gets me about the end-time people. i'm pretty sure we've been having hurricanes and earthquakes and tornados for at least a few thousand years, we simply didn't always have a few million people living ontop the fault-line. and we didn't used to have radio, newspapers, tv & now the web putting it in our face.

but also hurricanes seem more frequent and stronger now. the only debate seems to be is it part of a cycle or part of global warming. up until andrew we got off pretty light for 20 or 30 years. maybe we are 10-15 years into a new cycle. or maybe it is cycling through even warmer waters. maybe the future will be slower periods which equal our bad periods and bad periods which will be brutal.

pbs did a very interesting program the other month on global dimming which basically says the earth is actually warming even faster than our worst fears, but the heavier particles have been dimming the sun's rays which has actually kept us from getting as warm as we would otherwise. scarey stuff for the next few generations. sure hope they find a way to fix this mess.

here is link to pbs transcript http://tinyurl.com/ol8sx

be sure to check out also the contrail effect http://tinyurl.com/op2s2

 

[AltaRed]

Since we've seen 20+% property value appreciation for 5+ years straight all up and down U.S. coast, the value of the damaged houses keeps going up.  What used to be a "moderately priced" $200-300k beach house a decade ago (or less) around the N.C. beaches is probably $1 million now.  And development continues along the coast.  I've personally spent about 90% of my time at work this year working on residential, office and retail development projects within 5-10 miles of the coast with elevations of 20 feet or less in most cases (within the typical storm surge of a big hurricane).  If we get a direct hit from a category 5, I'd expect 90% loss of most of this development. 

And then the owers of all this expensive, irresponsibly placed, real estate expect the taxpayer to foot the bill in repair.  DW and I spent a couple of years (2003-2005) while in Texas investigating recreational property all the way from someplace east of Destin, FL all the way to San Padre, TX.   The one thing we constantly commented on was the vulnerability of all that real estate near the water, not only on the barrier islands, but on the inside of the waterway as well.

People who wish to roll the dice owning on the waterfront should remain responsible for themselves.  Man cannot stop geological time in any event. The coasts will erode and subside no matter what anyone thinks otherwise.

 

[justin]

Man cannot stop geological time in any event. The coasts will erode and subside no matter what anyone thinks otherwise.

Curious about this - if someone's beachfront home is washed away and the land is washed away too, does Flood insurance cover rehabbing the ground that the house was built on, or just the structure itself? I have flood insurance, but what would happen if the soil my house is built on were to be eroded by 10' or so by a 1000 year flood? The fill dirt and site prep to add 10' of fill would cost more than the reconstruction of the house structure itself.

 

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

And then the owers of all this expensive, irresponsibly placed, real estate expect the taxpayer to foot the bill in repair.  

Nords,

How far from the ocean do you live?

Just curious. Seen this? Hope you're not irresponsibly placed.

 

[AltaRed]

Curious about this - if someone's beachfront home is washed away and the land is washed away too, does Flood insurance cover rehabbing the ground that the house was built on, or just the structure itself?  I have flood insurance, but what would happen if the soil my house is built on were to be eroded by 10' or so by a 1000 year flood?  The fill dirt and site prep to add 10' of fill would cost more than the reconstruction of the house structure itself.

Highly unlikey if it isn't explicitly mentioned in your policy - after all, you insured only your structure. I might further speculate the insurance company could refuse to rebuild on that same site - point being this is just another accident waiting to happen again.

 

[justin]

I might further speculate the insurance company could refuse to rebuild on that same site - point being this is just another accident waiting to happen again.

I thought all of the flood insurance was underwritten by the govt and people keep rebuilding where they know it is going to flood again.

Of course I would prefer to receive cash compensation for my house instead of having the insurance company rebuild it for me since the insurance company's replacement cost is higher than the market value. Plus I'd still own the land (and I know it is valuable to at least one buyer).

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

Curious about this - if someone's beachfront home is washed away and the land is washed away too, does Flood insurance cover rehabbing the ground that the house was built on, or just the structure itself?  I have flood insurance, but what would happen if the soil my house is built on were to be eroded by 10' or so by a 1000 year flood?  The fill dirt and site prep to add 10' of fill would cost more than the reconstruction of the house structure itself.

you can not simply add fill to beach house property. it often takes years of permitting (state environmental, army corps of engineers, etc) even for a taxing district to add some sand. besides, unless an entire stretch of beach is renourished, putting a few buckets under your back porch won't amount to much after that first wave hits.

also in regard to the previous increase of property value comment: what has increased, in most cases, is not the value of the structure but of the land.

 

[Alex]

Michael Crichton or 90%+ of the world's climate scientists? Hmm.

http://www.comics.com/comics/monty/archive/monty-20060526.html

Copernicus or 90% of the worlds scientists circa 1500?? hmmm...

 

[justin]

you can not simply add fill to beach house property. it often takes years of permitting (state environmental, army corps of engineers, etc) even for a taxing district to add some sand. besides, unless an entire stretch of beach is renourished, putting a few buckets under your back porch won't amount to much after that first wave hits.

also in regard to the previous increase of property value comment: what has increased, in most cases, is not the value of the structure but of the land.

I live on a lake, but the streams that feed the lake all run underneath my property (in stormwater pipes and culverts). To my knowledge of ACE and state DENR requirements, no difficult to obtain permits would be required for me to fix my property. But if I was on an oceanfront lot and my lot got washed away, I agree, "it's gone!".

re: increase in property value - the flood insurance coverage amount I think only refers to the value of my structure. It increased by 5% or so last year. The land value doesn't factor in to my "amount insured" but I'm assuming reconstruction costs would include whatever is needed to build a foundation at the same elevation as the original structure, including grading/site work (hence the fill dirt).

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

interesting, i'm not sure. i would have to re-read my insurance policy. for now i do not believe coverage goes beyond the foundation and i'm not even sure the foundation is included. i was discussing this once with my brother who mentioned that i'd have to rebuild on my existing foundation. so i think if the foundation goes yer screwed.

you might wanna check that yourself before a sink hole increases the size of your lake but decreases your property holdings. and i'd make regular checks to be sure those pipes run clear.

sure sounds like you have a nice piece of property though. enjoy.

 

[Nords]

How far from the ocean do you live?  Just curious.

About eight miles and, more importantly, about 465 feet of elevation.  

Seen this? Hope you're not irresponsibly placed.

We have friends who work at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.  They said the most heartbreaking thing was watching the IO tsunami propagate while they were calling embassy after embassy and getting dead lines, busy signals, answering machines, or people who just didn't believe what they were being told.  Back then there was just no way to talk to their counterparts or direclty to the local governments.  It would've been a moot point anyway without some sort of civil-defense warning system.

The PTWC itself is near Ewa Beach and would be one of the first buildings to be wiped slick.  (They claim they'll have enough warning to get out.)  NOAA has about 13 different branches in Hawaii spread out among a number of buildings and is in the process of consolidating them to the most affordable military facility on Oahu-- Ford Island.  By a strange quirk of bureaucracy the PTWC staff managed to wangle themselves a third-floor watch center.  Either that or they know something that the other branches haven't thought of.

Hawaii's phone books show tsunami evacuation maps that ironically haven't been updated in over a dozen years, even after the lessons learned from the IO tsunami.  They're still wrangling over the money to fund the study to start the process, and they'll probably get it going just as soon as they rebuild the New Orleans levees for a Cat 5 hurricane.  Any day now.

I don't worry about the tsunami as much as the hurricane.  We're on a ridge overlooking a gulch (lots of running head-start room for the wind-blown debris) and we're about a mile from the nearest hurricane shelter.  Spouse has volunteered for shelter staff so if she's not watching the weather charts then we'll still get a Red Cross call with 3-4 days' warning.

Actually we just finished updating our hurricane checklist.  It's been almost 14 years since Iniki (Hawaii's other 9/11) so we have about as much chance of escaping unscathed this year as Bill Miller does of beating the S&P500 yet again.

 

[eridanus]

Copernicus or 90% of the worlds scientists circa 1500?? hmmm...

You're comparing Copernicus to a fiction writer of adventure novels? He is extremely tall and wealthy though.

If you really care, and aren't just being obstinate, you can start with research by Mann. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/research/research.html

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Nords,

How far from the ocean do you live?

Just curious. Seen this? Hope you're not irresponsibly placed.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami.shtml

Hope the wave stops before it makes it to Tampa

 

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

While I wouldn't automatically consider everything near the beach to be irresponsible (I'm about a mile or two from the bay) I do think some of those California hillside mansions on stilts which slide into the ocean every year or two to be a bit dicey. Then there was old Harry Truman who refused to leave the lava flows of Mt. St. Helens.

Few regions are without their own brand of natural vulnerability and I doubt we could muster the resources needed for the "big ones" at anything less than a national level. Unless, of course, Brownie was in charge.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami.shtml

Hope the wave stops before it makes it to Tampa

What will happen when the volcano on La Palma collapses? Scientists predict that it will generate a wave that will be almost inconceivably destructive, far bigger than anything ever witnessed in modern times. It will surge across the entire Atlantic in a matter of hours, engulfing the whole US east coast, sweeping away everything in its path up to 20km inland. Boston would be hit first, followed by New York, then all the way down the coast to Miami and the Caribbean.

oh good. something else for them to raise my insurance rates over.

curious why it wouldn't hit the caribbean before boston. looks to me like it is same longitude as daytona. also looks like the bahamas would break the wave before it would hit florida.