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Old 03-20-2011, 11:10 PM   #21
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Japan also has an earthquake warning system, one of the best in the world.
Japan's Earthquake and Tsunami Warning System Explained - TIME
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Old 03-21-2011, 07:34 AM   #22
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I don't understand the criticism of this Fox News interview. It was a very accurate representation of earthquake forecasting knowledge for the western United States. Primary areas of concern include the southern San Andreas fault (mostly southern California), the Cascadia subduction zone (e.g., Washington and Oregon), and the Hayward fault (San Francisco Bay Area). The person being interviewed, Ken Hudnut, clearly stated that earthquake "prediction" efforts focus on long timescale forecasts. Often, the USGS and others use 30-year prediction windows (e.g., there is a 63% chance of a large M > 6.7 earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years).
Funny you should mention the interview with this Ken Hudnut. I saw it myself and then saw a Discovery Channel show on the big quake in Cascadia in 1700. Naturally, the United States didn't know anything about this quake at the time or at least had no records. Who had the records or how did we find out about this? The Japanese had records of a giant tsunami in 1700. One of their geophysists got together with one of our guys and determined that this tsunami was triggered by a quake in Cascadia. This guy, Ken Hudnut, went on to describe how devastating a big quake could be to this region which includes Vancouver down through the Oregon coast. Major fault line here. As much as I love the west coast, I be nervous living there.
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Old 03-21-2011, 02:15 PM   #23
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Hey, to be "fair and balanced" , you should have posted the Network TV and PBS line-ups as well...
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Old 03-21-2011, 05:55 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
I don't understand the criticism of this Fox News interview. It was a very accurate representation of earthquake forecasting knowledge for the western United States. Primary areas of concern include the southern San Andreas fault (mostly southern California), the Cascadia subduction zone (e.g., Washington and Oregon), and the Hayward fault (San Francisco Bay Area). The person being interviewed, Ken Hudnut, clearly stated that earthquake "prediction" efforts focus on long timescale forecasts. Often, the USGS and others use 30-year prediction windows (e.g., there is a 63% chance of a large M > 6.7 earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years).
For one thing, the word "imminent". Those "newscasters" implied that the geologist was saying the big quake was going to happen right away - that is the meaning of the word "imminent". Words have meaning. You will notice that the geologist NEVER USED THAT WORD - or did he, and I missed it? The "newscasters" used it several times, and flashed it in big letters on the screen.
I did a search online of Science articles containing San Andreas and found a couple to which he might have been referring. The word "imminent" is not contained in them.
The geologist said he could only reasonably forecast within ten year intervals. It's true that USGS is predicting that there is going to be a big one, or in the case of the paper to which I think he is referring, more frequent smaller ones, but they cannot predict exactly when.
What I don't like about this newscast in particular and Fox News in general is:
1. Their primary objective seems to be to scare the viewer, and only secondarily to inform.
2. (and this is a cultural thing, I admit) The women dress like it's date night, not as professionals, and after saying something that is supposed to scare you, they open their eyes wider and pause just a second for effect. Perhaps if I enjoyed soap operas I would not mind this, but I was raised on a diet of Walter Cronkite.
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Old 03-21-2011, 06:04 PM   #25
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Hey, to be "fair and balanced" , you should have posted the Network TV and PBS line-ups as well...
I would, but I was told I already take up too much bandwidth ....
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Old 03-26-2011, 11:00 AM   #26
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Big Earthquake in Cali...somewhere 3/19-3/26


15 hours until we're in the clear.
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Old 03-26-2011, 12:05 PM   #27
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Old 03-26-2011, 12:49 PM   #28
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The advantage of a big quake as one's final exit is it is not lonely, no tubes are involved, no overbearing medical personnel will be bothering you, and your death will be at least some small part of history.

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Old 03-26-2011, 02:57 PM   #29
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The advantage of a big quake as one's final exit is it is not lonely, no tubes are involved, no overbearing medical personnel will be bothering you, and your death will be at least some small part of history.
My attitude exactly. Die with your shoes on and go down in a blaze of glory. I hate tubes and hospitals. Maybe I can be a suicide bomber and blow up Gaddafi in Libya. For sure history would remember me!
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Old 03-26-2011, 03:10 PM   #30
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one's final exit is it is not lonely, no tubes are involved, no overbearing medical personnel will be bothering you,


Unless your final exit involves 48 hours in the dark and cold, trapped under your refrigerator.
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Old 03-26-2011, 09:30 PM   #31
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Four and one half hours to go. Got your boat ready Al?
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Old 03-27-2011, 12:06 PM   #32
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Does not look like it will happen tomorrow either.

At the link is USGS predictive map. Click on Today's map at top left.

24-Hour Aftershock Forecast Map
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