I work in the oil sands industry up here in northern AB. There is an enormous amount of heavy hydrocarbon up here. As usual, some of it is easy and cheap to get out but it gets more expensive the more is developed. Canada is a relatively reliable supplier, too. 2-3 million barrels in less than 5 years, my estimate--quite possibly in about two years. The big problem is going to be no where to sell it. Refining capacity in North America has been getting tighter over the years. We have been shutting down refineries here. It has to go through an extra step ('upgrading') before it can even be handled by a normal refinery (which is why it sells at a discount to benchmark crudes). Upgraders are being built now, but I think that there will be a bottleneck in the refineries downstream that will have to be removed, too.
Cost of production varies by producer and is rumored to be between $10 (too low I think) and $20/barrel. Understand that such numbers are hard to verify as they are confidential. After processing, it can be sold at about a 30% discount to the familiar benchmark crudes. We still make money.
High gasoline taxes would discourage US consumption. Ain't gonna happen. Increasing cost of production will eventually bring up the price of gasoline, I think. Higher prices will discourage consumption and change consumptipon patterns.
There is a lot of interest in nuclear power again, but it takes a lot longer to get a nuke built and the uranium mines have been shut down for years. Figure ten years or more away.
There is a lot of natural gas that used to be considered 'stranded', or could not be brought to market. All over the world there are projects to liquify this natural gas (LNG) and ship it. Yes, there is an unbelievable amount of natural gas under the ocean in hydrates, but we are far away from being able to bring that to market. LNG from the middle east will soon keep us warm until hydrates become practical to recover.
It is an interesting time to be in the business and there is lots of work for guys like me. Another couple of years like this and I wll be OK.
Cheer,
Gypsy