Hybrid Car Break Even Point

[Totoro]

Some are estimating battery costs dropping 15%-20% per annum as they have for a while now.


If that pans out by 2028 batteries cost about 10%-20% of what they do now. At that point, any ICE is dead in the water, hybrid or not.

 

[ERD50]

Some are estimating battery costs dropping 15%-20% per annum as they have for a while now. ...

Got a source for that? That number seemed higher than I recall reading. This source was closer to my poor memory:

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...h-will-fall-to-100-by-2025-bloomberg-analysis

A report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, based on a survey of "more than 50 companies," states the average cost of a electric-car battery pack is now $209 per kilowatt-hour.

But the real shocker is the report's claim of future battery pack prices: BNEF believes they will cost less than $100 per kilowatt-hour by 2025, just seven years hence.

~ 50% drop in seven years is ~ 10% per year, far below a 15%~20% compounded number.

100 ∕ 209 ≈ 0.478
0.9^7 ≈ 0.478

... If that pans out by 2028 batteries cost about 10%-20% of what they do now. At that point, any ICE is dead in the water, hybrid or not.

Well, ~ 37% if projections hold. And that does help costs for EVs, but it isn't 10 - 20%. More like 21 years to hit 10% of current costs. If it remains linear, I'd kind of expect some diminishing returns after another ~ 50% reduction.


Figure 12 of this source: http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/9/1314/pdf



shows about the same as above (you need to interpolate a bit, but $200 is right between their #'s for 2015 and 2020), and a flattening of the curve is very evident. I'd eyeball is as being asymptotic at around $50/kWh, which would be about 25% of today's costs.Getting to 10%-20% is a longer ways off, I'd think.


But it doesn't help much for the size and weight they take up for cars with the range most people want. And for people who need the occasional long range, an EV just won't fit the bill for them.

ICE/hybrid will not be dead in the water by that time. Especially when people wake up to the fact that EVs will be creating more pollution than a modern ICE/hybrid.

The 'greenies' pushing EVs now are in the same camp as the 'greenies' who were anti-nuke in the 70/80's. They ignore the consequences and alternatives, and nuking nukes did mean more coal (the dirtiest power by far) for longer. Thanks 'greenies'!

-ERD50

 

[Totoro]

There are a few. McKinsey has one source, Exhibit 4 from https://www.mckinsey.de/files/161223_mckinsey_e-vehicles.pdf

2010 about $1000 / kwh, 2016 around $227, a 77% drop.

It translates into >20% reduction per annum. Note I'm talking about actual observed drops, not forecasts.

This video contain a few others:

In terms of forecast, I can't find a reason to justify the 15%-20% trend of the recent years leveling off. In fact, here:
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/11/batteries-keep-getting-cheaper/

They mention 2017 was again 24% cheaper vs. 2016. These are prices at the pack level.

Green btw has nothing to do with it, this is pure economics. These are unsubsidized costs. If a 100 KwH pack drops below, say $10k, you'll have a 300+ mile car at a much lower TCO, especially in higher fuel cost countries (vs. the US) like Europe, India and China. In Europe especially gas costs about 2x - 3x what it does vs. the US. In the Netherlands a full electric compact car like the Renault Zoe already is around the same lease price (the 60 kwh version) compared to an equivalent ICE. That's excluding the big gas savings.

Another 50% and we're there, yet another 50% and the purchase price drops below an equivalent ICE car.

 

[ERD50]

There are a few. McKinsey has one source, Exhibit 4 from https://www.mckinsey.de/files/161223_mckinsey_e-vehicles.pdf

2010 about $1000 / kwh, 2016 around $227, a 77% drop.

...

Thanks for that source, but I don't see how you can say the following, based on that:

In terms of forecast, I can't find a reason to justify the 15%-20% trend of the recent years leveling off.

Your source, in that figure, does forecast a range for 2020 and 2030, and there is a clear leveling off. I extended their chart past their 2016E, and drew a rough curve fit (the dark blue, and black curve), and it even supports my observation of it becoming asymptotic towards ~ $50 :

... Green btw has nothing to do with it, this is pure economics. These are unsubsidized costs. If a 100 KwH pack drops below, say $10k, you'll have a 300+ mile car at a much lower TCO, ...

Sure, at some point EVs could make good economic sense for many. But a lot of the attraction is based on the premise that they are green. What happens if that is shown to not be the case? I think that will be a problem for many potential buyers.

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

What happens to all the scrap batteries?

 

[ERD50]

What happens to all the scrap batteries?

I don't think they will be scrap for a long while. They've mostly proven to be pretty reliable for long periods in the harsh auto environment (with the exception of some of the early Leafs in AZ - didn't like the heat). There are many applications where size/weight aren't critical. So you might take a car battery that's down to 60%-70% capacity (becoming a range issue for some drivers), and re-purpose it for a UPS for a computer room, or (lots of 'em) for load balancing on the grid (I'm talking about very short demand bursts, on the order of seconds or minutes, that create grief and $$$ for grid operators).


I haven't looked in detail, but I think they can be recycled pretty effectively at end-of-life.


-ERD50

 

[meierlde]

What happens to all the scrap batteries?

actually you do a bit of rehab and use them as home battery systems, with basically 1 cycle a day, and lower discharge rates to mitigate against the sunset surge in power demand, i.e. you charge them from noon till the power from the solar array is less than the house demand, then discharge until the decline in power demand at 9 pm or so. Thus solving the problem of the so called duck curve with lots of solar and the need to ramp generation up fast as the sun begins to set. This is a more benign environment than a car and you may get a few years off the set after having been used in a car. (you would set the system up so it discharges at a lower rate than needed in a car, thus being able to use used batteries)

 

[aja8888]

actually you do a bit of rehab and use them as home battery systems, with basically 1 cycle a day, and lower discharge rates to mitigate against the sunset surge in power demand, i.e. you charge them from noon till the power from the solar array is less than the house demand, then discharge until the decline in power demand at 9 pm or so. Thus solving the problem of the so called duck curve with lots of solar and the need to ramp generation up fast as the sun begins to set. This is a more benign environment than a car and you may get a few years off the set after having been used in a car. (you would set the system up so it discharges at a lower rate than needed in a car, thus being able to use used batteries)

Sounds great, but the average family in the world is not going to do something like this. I suspect there will be large numbers of LI batteries that will have no easily available end use. Lead-acid batteries are easily recycled (except for the non-recoverable plastic) and I have been to recycling plants in Louisiana and other states and saw this process (during my working career).

I'm all for electric and hybrid vehicles, but live in Texas (like you) and see my driving staying hydrocarbon based. I am a fanboy of diesels and have had several in the last 20 years. As I get older (Damn, I'm old already!) I can see a Volt or similar in my future as a second car.

 

[Rustic23]

Fifteen to twenty years ago, when I worked for one of the more populous Texas counties, we were meeting with one of the big three auto makers about testing some of their vehicles. The idea was that the cars would gps their travels. They would be able to determine what road segments they drove on and how often and how far. The computer would be able to take that info and apply a different fee for each segment i.e. more for freeway less for neighborhood roads. It was indicated that time of day could also be accounted/charged. One of the ideas was the car would communicate with the gas pump and the tax would be added to the bill. If electric, it would communicate with it's charging station and charge the fee.

I retired long before this went anywhere, but I believe the technology is out there to do just that.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by meierlde
actually you do a bit of rehab and use them as home battery systems, ...

Sounds great, but the average family in the world is not going to do something like this. ....

True, but I really do think there are plenty of industrial applications for Lion batteries that have 'retired' from automobile duty.

And recycling after that sounds feasible..

https://www.ft.com/content/c489382e-6b06-11e7-bfeb-33fe0c5b7eaa

says a company can recover 90% of the lithium, cobalt, copper, and graphite (they don't allow copying there, so visit to read if you want).

-ERD50

 

[meierlde]

Sounds great, but the average family in the world is not going to do something like this. I suspect there will be large numbers of LI batteries that will have no easily available end use. Lead-acid batteries are easily recycled (except for the non-recoverable plastic) and I have been to recycling plants in Louisiana and other states and saw this process (during my working career).

I'm all for electric and hybrid vehicles, but live in Texas (like you) and see my driving staying hydrocarbon based. I am a fanboy of diesels and have had several in the last 20 years. As I get older (Damn, I'm old already!) I can see a Volt or similar in my future as a second car.

Once we get time of use billing starting for electricity and the cost between 6 and 9 pm doubles compared to today that will be a strong incentive to add the batteries to avoid paying for electricity at 20 cents per kwh or so. (this is an effect of high solar penetration where between 4 and 5 pm solar production begins to fall). It won't be as big a problem in Tx as in Ca due to the best utility scale solar in Tx being a few hundred miles west of the major population centers, compare to Ca where the best solar is a few hundred miles east. (Thus the solar power ramps down later in Tx compared to Ca). The trend will hit Ca first where the duck curve due to solar is begining to bite already.

 

[Totoro]

Thanks for that source, but I don't see how you can say the following, based on that:

Your source, in that figure, does forecast a range for 2020 and 2030, and there is a clear leveling off. I extended their chart past their 2016E, and drew a rough curve fit (the dark blue, and black curve), and it even supports my observation of it becoming asymptotic towards ~ $50

Cost forecasts in batteries have been notoriously poor, that's why. In some older attempts for 15 years out were beat within two years.

Just looked at a study from 2011 that predicted 2030 costs would be $240 kwh. We're already there, it's 2018. 12 years early.

If there is a trend break, there should be an explanation for why that applies. There isn't. To be clear: I don't know either what the future will bring. Historically, just applying the trend isn't a bad bet. The trend is -20% per annum.

Still, even if it ends up at $50 we have a 300+ mile range battery (100 kwh) for $5k. With a simpler engine and lower fuel costs, there's no way an ICE or hybrid car can compete anymore on price. The break-even point is somewhere around $100 / kwh pack price.

 

[meierlde]

Cost forecasts in batteries have been notoriously poor, that's why. In some older attempts for 15 years out were beat within two years.

Just looked at a study from 2011 that predicted 2030 costs would be $240 kwh. We're already there, it's 2018. 12 years early.

If there is a trend break, there should be an explanation for why that applies. There isn't. To be clear: I don't know either what the future will bring. Historically, just applying the trend isn't a bad bet. The trend is -20% per annum.

Still, even if it ends up at $50 we have a 300+ mile range battery (100 kwh) for $5k. With a simpler engine and lower fuel costs, there's no way an ICE or hybrid car can compete anymore on price. The break-even point is somewhere around $100 / kwh pack price.

300 mi range works far better east of the Mississippi than west due to distances involved. It is just like no spare works better east of the Mississippi due to the greater population density. But for example assume you live in Western KS 300 miles is not a feasible round trip to major shopping etc. (Wichita is 233 miles one way, Denver is 300 mi, KC is about 370 mi etc). Once you get west of the 100th meridian things get sparse, this is where the Volt with a reserve gas tank attached makes sense in the wide open spaces. (Plus out there chargers will be scarce also except perhaps at truck stops, i.e. start the car charging and have lunch).

 

[meierlde]

Cost forecasts in batteries have been notoriously poor, that's why. In some older attempts for 15 years out were beat within two years.

Just looked at a study from 2011 that predicted 2030 costs would be $240 kwh. We're already there, it's 2018. 12 years early.

If there is a trend break, there should be an explanation for why that applies. There isn't. To be clear: I don't know either what the future will bring. Historically, just applying the trend isn't a bad bet. The trend is -20% per annum.

Still, even if it ends up at $50 we have a 300+ mile range battery (100 kwh) for $5k. With a simpler engine and lower fuel costs, there's no way an ICE or hybrid car can compete anymore on price. The break-even point is somewhere around $100 / kwh pack price.

this item suggests the retail price for 1 kwh with battery managment system etc is about $480 (in the energy storage situation)LiFePO4 Prismatic Battery: 12.8V 100Ah (1.28 KWh, 10C Rate) - UN38.3 Passed (3.2Vx4 DGR)
So you know the cost to someone that buys the prismatic cells in large multiples is far lower. At some point it may be the case that the ancillary parts of the battery start costing as much as the cells themselves (which would imply the cost for the first kwh will be higher than the second and subsequent kwhs. (just as is true with home solar the costs of the racking, inverters, control systems, permits wiring etc are now a good bit more than the cost of the panels which are now down in the $1 per watt range).

 

[ERD50]

Cost forecasts in batteries have been notoriously poor, that's why. In some older attempts for 15 years out were beat within two years.

Just looked at a study from 2011 that predicted 2030 costs would be $240 kwh. We're already there, it's 2018. 12 years early.

If there is a trend break, there should be an explanation for why that applies. There isn't. To be clear: I don't know either what the future will bring. Historically, just applying the trend isn't a bad bet. The trend is -20% per annum.

Still, even if it ends up at $50 we have a 300+ mile range battery (100 kwh) for $5k. With a simpler engine and lower fuel costs, there's no way an ICE or hybrid car can compete anymore on price. The break-even point is somewhere around $100 / kwh pack price.

Well, I hope you are right, lower battery costs are good for all of us. But I think that since the technology is more mature 7 years later, that the trend forecasts are better as well. We will see.

Yes, lower costs for a 300 mile range EV might make them a good financial choice for many. But I still don't think the ICE/hybrid model will die:

A) There are some people who routinely need more range, and

B) Some people who occasionally need more range (unexpectedly), and don't want to buy/rent another vehicle at the drop of a hat.

C) Lots of people who just don't have access to a charger.

D) If people catch on to the idea that the new hybrid/ICEs are cleaner than an EV, there might be some push-back against those dirty, polluting EVs.


-ERD50

 

[meierlde]

Well, I hope you are right, lower battery costs are good for all of us. But I think that since the technology is more mature 7 years later, that the trend forecasts are better as well. We will see.

Yes, lower costs for a 300 mile range EV might make them a good financial choice for many. But I still don't think the ICE/hybrid model will die:

A) There are some people who routinely need more range, and

B) Some people who occasionally need more range (unexpectedly), and don't want to buy/rent another vehicle at the drop of a hat.

C) Lots of people who just don't have access to a charger.

D) If people catch on to the idea that the new hybrid/ICEs are cleaner than an EV, there might be some push-back against those dirty, polluting EVs.


-ERD50

For point C the first step if you own your home would be to install a charging circuit at home. Might add 1k to the bill depending on how much work is required.

 

[ERD50]

For point C the first step if you own your home would be to install a charging circuit at home. Might add 1k to the bill depending on how much work is required.

Right, and that's a kicker for a lot of people. And even some people who own their own homes (condos for example) may not have a garage or a parking place with an outlet they can use.

That's why I say the ICE(/hybrid) will not be 'dead' anytime soon. Maybe a whole lot of people will be buying EVs in the future, but there will still be those who really need/prefer an ICE(/hybrid) that can be refueled with a short stop at a gas station.

-ERD50

 

[Gumby]

In light of current events, I just thought I'd report that Prince Harry drove his new bride, Meghan Markle, to the evening reception in a 1968 Jaguar E-type convertible that has been converted to electric drive. https://www.yahoo.com/style/prince-...ft-hand-drive-jaguar-reception-193739584.html

 

[mpeirce]

Right, and that's a kicker for a lot of people.

Honestly, I've always wondered how it will work for folks who just park their car on the street in no particular space each night. I've done that in the past, it's certainly not an uncommon situation.

 

[ERD50]

In light of current events, I just thought I'd report that Prince Harry drove his new bride, Meghan Markle, to the evening reception in a 1968 Jaguar E-type convertible that has been converted to electric drive. https://www.yahoo.com/style/prince-...ft-hand-drive-jaguar-reception-193739584.html

Was there any explanation for why it was left-hand drive? Was the conversion done in the US on a Jag exported to the US ? For a royal wedding, I would think everything would be very British (umm, OK, I guess except for the bride in this case!).

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Honestly, I've always wondered how it will work for folks who just park their car on the street in no particular space each night. I've done that in the past, it's certainly not an uncommon situation.

And in a big city like Chicago, many of the homes have detached garages out on the alley. I'm pretty sure those were wired for a single 15A circuit for a light bulb back then. Running the kind of power you need for the occasional overnight full charge of a 300 mile range EV would not be cheap.

None of this is unsurmountable, and might not affect the majority of drivers, but I think it does point to the ICE/hybrid having a place for a long, long time.

-ERD50

 

[Koolau]

Our condo building has a garage. Local law "requires" it to have available charging station(s) for plug in cars. The law makes NO provision for enforcement so no condo garages (to my knowledge) have plug in stations. If they did, the law has no provision (that I'm aware of) to regulate the prices charged for the electricity. My point, if any: Plug-ins of any type have at least one additional disadvantage which may slow their adoption by the general public. We do have plug in stations at Costco that are "free", but you can only use them for an hour. My guess is that that might be worth 10 +/- miles of driving. Only 2 places in the Costco parking lot will NOT be much help if plug-ins become routine. YMMV

 

[Chuckanut]

Our condo building has a garage. Local law "requires" it to have available charging station(s) for plug in cars. The law makes NO provision for enforcement so no condo garages (to my knowledge) have plug in stations. If they did, the law has no provision (that I'm aware of) to regulate the prices charged for the electricity. My point, if any: Plug-ins of any type have at least one additional disadvantage which may slow their adoption by the general public. We do have plug in stations at Costco that are "free", but you can only use them for an hour. My guess is that that might be worth 10 +/- miles of driving. Only 2 places in the Costco parking lot will NOT be much help if plug-ins become routine. YMMV

My guess is that if EV's become popular, some enterprising company will offer to install charging stations in your condo garage where people can charge their cars for a fee. I can see renting an electrified parking stall as an optional monthly cost for a home owner.



FWIW, my neighbors just took delivery of a Model 3. I am not sure where they charge the car since it is always parked outside on the driveway.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

300 mi range works far better east of the Mississippi than west due to distances involved. It is just like no spare works better east of the Mississippi due to the greater population density. But for example assume you live in Western KS 300 miles is not a feasible round trip to major shopping etc. (Wichita is 233 miles one way, Denver is 300 mi, KC is about 370 mi etc). Once you get west of the 100th meridian things get sparse, this is where the Volt with a reserve gas tank attached makes sense in the wide open spaces. (Plus out there chargers will be scarce also except perhaps at truck stops, i.e. start the car charging and have lunch).

How many people live west of the 100th meridian in Kansas? That's pickup truck country anyway. A guy driving up in an EV would get laughed out of the cowboy bar.

 

[gerntz]

Cost forecasts in batteries have been notoriously poor, that's why. In some older attempts for 15 years out were beat within two years.

Just looked at a study from 2011 that predicted 2030 costs would be $240 kwh. We're already there, it's 2018. 12 years early.

If there is a trend break, there should be an explanation for why that applies. There isn't. To be clear: I don't know either what the future will bring. Historically, just applying the trend isn't a bad bet. The trend is -20% per annum.

Still, even if it ends up at $50 we have a 300+ mile range battery (100 kwh) for $5k. With a simpler engine and lower fuel costs, there's no way an ICE or hybrid car can compete anymore on price. The break-even point is somewhere around $100 / kwh pack price.

I could be a buyer at $50/kwh & 500 miles range.