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Old 07-31-2015, 04:29 AM   #21
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I bet a hundred years ago people thought Microsoft Windows would last forever.

Oh wait.
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Old 07-31-2015, 07:54 AM   #22
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I have built several spreadsheets using iOS Numbers (now free) on my iPad (and iPhone). It's more capable than one might think, and perfectly serviceable for many Excel tasks (I believe I'm a 'power user') but admittedly not everything one can do with full blown Excel on a PC.

And in the mainstream, I suspect most spreadsheet users only tap into 5-10% of Excel's capabilities. For every power user I worked with in the corporate world, there were still many more who could barely build a rudimentary spreadsheet (though that will probably change within a generation). IOW, iOS Numbers will do anything 90-95% of today's users would want and maybe even a majority here.
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Old 07-31-2015, 12:20 PM   #23
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You can also use numbers from any browser so you can use it from the desktop with mouse and keyboard.

Yeah that's the strange thing about why Office was so successful. You had these monolithic applications which offered all these features which most people wouldn't use.

MS did make MS Works, which probably made more sense for consumers but people wanted the same thing they got at the office.

That and MS used a proprietary file format that made it difficult for all those existing Word and Excel documents to be converted to other applications.

Word could be used to produce books and yet a lot of people were writing cover letters and resumes on it.

Likewise, Excel can be used for complex financial models but a lot of people were using it for their checking account register or something else basic.

The thing is, through say the early '90s, word processors and spreadsheets drove the PC industry.

Then you had the browser wars for awhile.

Now it's about mobile devices.

I use spreadsheets, either Google Sheets or Numbers, for a few things and they're really basic.

I don't ever see using a longer word processor, unless I feel the great American Novel in me. More likely I would get a scriptwriting program. But for everyday mundane tasks, email program and TextEdit (the equivalent of Windows Notepad, though with RTFd support).
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Old 07-31-2015, 01:11 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
If people are not using MS SW on their phones and tablets, it just makes MS SW less important in the overall scheme of things. MS will try to make tie-ins between devices to make it more convenient to go MS everywhere, and MS will try to make it less convenient to use other SW on the MS products you have.

By being a bit player in the phone market, and losing a big chunk of the tablet market to IOS and Android, MS is losing leverage. And IMO, it was that leverage that was key, as I feel their products are mostly inferior. Maybe they can turn it around - competition is good.
-ERD50
Every generation had their dominant players (from a profit viewpoint)
Mainframes - IBM
Mini - Digital
Non-stop - Tandem
PC - MS
Smartphone - Apple
Smartwatch/wearables - Not decided
Streaming media - Not decided

I think it is normal to have a profit leader in each category. It would be unusual for any vendor to repeat from one category to the next. They might be participants, just not profit leaders.
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I use spreadsheets, either Google Sheets or Numbers, for a few things and they're really basic.

I don't ever see using a longer word processor, unless I feel the great American Novel in me. More likely I would get a scriptwriting program. But for everyday mundane tasks, email program and TextEdit (the equivalent of Windows Notepad, though with RTFd support).
I think Office apps have become a commodity and I don't see any dominant player. MS had the chance but they blew it by making incompatible file formats even among their own offerings.
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Old 07-31-2015, 01:51 PM   #25
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Looks like the market is anointing Netflix as the streaming winner.

They seem to have a lot of scale but it's so easy to switch to Amazon or Hulu or whatever since the same device can play all of them.

However, Netflix is getting exclusives and producing original programming.
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Old 08-01-2015, 04:38 AM   #26
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it's so easy to switch to Amazon or Hulu or whatever
That's the core point: There isn't a winner and doesn't need to be one. When you're dividing the world up vertically, you can end up with several superpowers with no real need to have a single winner. Netflix doesn't offer new episodes as they're broadcast. Amazon doesn't have Netflix's originals. Hulu doesn't have most series nor most movies that come out.

In reality, Netflix, Amazon and Hulu, in this regard, aren't going to be fighting for the same spot in the world Microsoft had with Windows. They're going to be fighting to take second place to Comcast (with regard to the content portion of the MVPD business), in a battle for which Comcast is in a pretty sweet situation (since the more streaming business Netflix, Amazon and Hulu do, the more Comcast can charge for broadband, i.e., the pipeline portion of the MVPD business). While Netflix's and Amazon's original programming could eat into the profitability of Comcast's, that's much less of a concern, since there are dozens of producers of original programming that new original programming from Netflix and Amazon may draw business from. I suspect Yahoo Screen, Spike TV, etc., are more concerned about that than Comcast.
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Old 08-01-2015, 11:08 AM   #27
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However, Netflix is getting exclusives and producing original programming.
Netflix is clearly the early leader in the fixed fee per month war. For pay as you go, everyone seems to be the same. We use Cinemax but have seen identicals fees on iTunes, for example. But we like Cinemax on our smart TV. The prime mover may not win the battle.

Also don't discount Amazon. And remember that the early leader often gets left behind. Blackberry in smartphones. Palm in handheld personal organizers. Apple in PCs. Lotus in spreadsheets. Wordperfect. Mosaic. The list goes on and on.

In fact, the list of MS failures is probably almost as long as any other list. It even includes their bread and butter OS. Why no Windows 9? Because they acknowledge that they have had many OS failures.

What will it take to reignite MS? I am willing to bet it will not be the smartphone. Will they retain the corporate PC OS market?

Windows CE was an early attempt (too early). The IoE will probably dictate the future leader...
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