Microsoft, capitulation and the end of Windows Everywhere

it's so easy to switch to Amazon or Hulu or whatever
That's the core point: There isn't a winner and doesn't need to be one. When you're dividing the world up vertically, you can end up with several superpowers with no real need to have a single winner. Netflix doesn't offer new episodes as they're broadcast. Amazon doesn't have Netflix's originals. Hulu doesn't have most series nor most movies that come out.

In reality, Netflix, Amazon and Hulu, in this regard, aren't going to be fighting for the same spot in the world Microsoft had with Windows. They're going to be fighting to take second place to Comcast (with regard to the content portion of the MVPD business), in a battle for which Comcast is in a pretty sweet situation (since the more streaming business Netflix, Amazon and Hulu do, the more Comcast can charge for broadband, i.e., the pipeline portion of the MVPD business). While Netflix's and Amazon's original programming could eat into the profitability of Comcast's, that's much less of a concern, since there are dozens of producers of original programming that new original programming from Netflix and Amazon may draw business from. I suspect Yahoo Screen, Spike TV, etc., are more concerned about that than Comcast.
 
However, Netflix is getting exclusives and producing original programming.
Netflix is clearly the early leader in the fixed fee per month war. For pay as you go, everyone seems to be the same. We use Cinemax but have seen identicals fees on iTunes, for example. But we like Cinemax on our smart TV. The prime mover may not win the battle.

Also don't discount Amazon. And remember that the early leader often gets left behind. Blackberry in smartphones. Palm in handheld personal organizers. Apple in PCs. Lotus in spreadsheets. Wordperfect. Mosaic. The list goes on and on.

In fact, the list of MS failures is probably almost as long as any other list. It even includes their bread and butter OS. Why no Windows 9? Because they acknowledge that they have had many OS failures.

What will it take to reignite MS? I am willing to bet it will not be the smartphone. Will they retain the corporate PC OS market?

Windows CE was an early attempt (too early). The IoE will probably dictate the future leader...
 
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