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View Poll Results: What do you think is happening with housing
Housing is in a slump 96 88.07%
Housing is staying the same 8 7.34%
Housing is still going up 5 4.59%
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Old 05-06-2008, 11:41 PM   #121
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Maybe there is no documented case because they are unable to sell due to the market.

To say that real estate is only down barely 3% over the past 4 years is just ridiculous, it is a generalisation which does not apply to all property. I know people that I work with who purchased properties 3 years ago and whilst there are 3 people who would like to sell they can not, because what they would get would be less than what they paid, so I am not certain how that equates to 9-16% YOY gains.
"That's a steeper drop than throughout the nation, where all homes are down 3 percent year-over-year, Zillow said."

Free4 now, when I read the article you referenced yesterday in the Chronicle this statement stuck out!! If ALL homes are down just 3% YOY why are we talking bubble/credit crunch/ bailout/30% drops?

I'm thinking someones gonna make out on this faux crisis.




Again, the 3% is not my figure. And the 9-16% YOY gains are based on actual resales posted here by me addresses provided. Sell your doom and gloom to those that are in the market to buy.


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Old 05-07-2008, 08:17 AM   #122
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kcowan, I remember when you linked your paper before (~2005 ... thanks!). When was the last time the red line (in Variable Troughs) was updated?

I think we've got a year or 2 before a real bottom is found. Basing this on the prices being bid at REO auctions. Still toooo much liquidity out there.

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Tryan, I believe $600,000+ for that condo (if it’s the one from the view Hono shows) is a steal, at least it would have been a couple of years ago.
hmmm, only if the owner can get ~$6k/mo for rent. Otherwise, keep your day job to subsidize your tenants housing. And if prices stop increasing .... your STUCK (in your day job with a large negative cash flow).

No thanks!
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Old 05-07-2008, 09:54 AM   #123
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kcowan, I remember when you linked your paper before (~2005 ... thanks!). When was the last time the red line (in Variable Troughs) was updated?

I think we've got a year or 2 before a real bottom is found. Basing this on the prices being bid at REO auctions. Still toooo much liquidity out there.
That would be following the 79 cycle (more or less). The paper was published May 2, 2008 and the charts are current as of the end of 1Q2008.
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Old 05-07-2008, 10:03 AM   #124
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Tryan, I believe $600,000+ for that condo (if itís the one from the view Hono shows) is a steal, at least it would have been a couple of years ago.
Actually the 2006 and 2007 sales were in the upper $600's. They're asking in the mid (and not budging) and I offered in the low. I think the demand is there but the uncertainty of the economy and all the naysaying headlines is bringing the market here to a slowdown. I'm looking for a deal but I'll probably regret holding out since I'm sure the prices will zoom again once this mortgage mess gets sorted out.

On the financing side I'm preapproved by several companies and BOA even had an appraiser call me to do an appraisal and I had to tell him I didn't even have a contract yet!
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Old 05-07-2008, 10:48 AM   #125
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Hono, I'm sensing some mixed messages in your posts. Are you saying that S.F. is an exception to the rule and that, perhaps, "the rule" is wrong. Now are you saying there is a slowdown in S.F. because of uncertainty/emotion/negative news coverage? Is your "holdout" status gone? Considering this is the post-Enron, post-WMD age, I might be in the choir on this one. Would be interesting to start a new thread.
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Old 05-07-2008, 02:37 PM   #126
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The Housing Crisis Is Over - WSJ.com
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Old 05-08-2008, 04:47 PM   #127
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Housing crisis by the numbers -- -- South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com

projects 197,796 florida foreclosures through 2009 out of at least 7,291,013 housing units*

projected foreclosures from the 2005/6 subprime loans in south florida:

broward county (fort laud) 11,400 of 702,010 households**
palm beach county (boca-west palm) 4,912 of 528,272 households
dade county (miami) 17,204 of 837,419 households

*source: University of Florida News - Florida households grow over last six years despite hurricanes 2007 figure only on permanent residents, not including snowbirds or investment properties.

**source: About the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse 2005 figures
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Old 05-11-2008, 01:25 PM   #128
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See maps that show how your state / county compares to all of the others in the country ...[from a blog at Governing magazine]

"This week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke displayed a set of maps (cycle through the figures) that details just how wildly the number of foreclosures has risen in just a few years -- and how concentrated they've has been in certain areas of the country.

Almost all of California, Michigan and Florida are red, indicating large increases of defaulting borrowers, but that isn't news. More worrisome, perhaps, is that most of New England save Vermont is red; Minnesota and Hawaii are more red than not; northern New Jersey and southern New York are red; Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky are spackled with red counties; and central Colorado has an awful red belt running north to south. No state is untouched."
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Old 05-11-2008, 03:46 PM   #129
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location, location, localization.

here's a localized south florida
Map: Foreclosures, subprime loans in Broward, Palm -- South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com

lets see what citi-data has to say about the color inside the red:

broward county (metro fort laud area)

33311
White population: 7,693
Black population: 53,226

33309
White population: 18,849
Black population: 11,446

33313
White population: 13,468
Black population: 38,624

33068
White population: 25,999
Black population: 14,623

now to look at some of the non-red areas:

33305
White population: 10,675
Black population: 649

33316
White population: 9,706
Black population: 432

33069
White population: 15,699
Black population: 7,554

33029
White population: 26,437
Black population: 4,707

palm beach county (metro west palm bch area)

in the red

33493

White population: 961
Black population: 2,583

33404
White population: 8,602
Black population: 20,323

33467
White population: 37,879
Black population: 1,273

i would qualify that one by noting that area is recently developed with lots of speculation. it was never an established area but only developed during the boom from cow pasture to gated communities. that stuff never was worth what it sold for.

non-red areas

33483
White population: 11,182
Black population: 879

33431
White population: 15,446
Black population: 994

33446
White population: 14,895
Black population: 78

when it comes to florida real estate, seeing into the red can be a matter that's black and white.
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Maui Condos UP 23% YOY !!
Old 05-11-2008, 04:07 PM   #130
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Maui Condos UP 23% YOY !!

Go figure.

Maui condo prices rise, home prices fall - Pacific Business News (Honolulu):
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Old 05-11-2008, 04:15 PM   #131
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just received following email from a bud of mine on a somewhat scary but, i think, over-panicked article i sent him which i titled "not so good"...

Quote:
I would say ****ing terrible. Closer to home ---today's Sun-Sentinel sold homes--zip code 33308 (my bud's neck of the woods)

1. 6621 NE 21Terrace---1901 sq ft--3/2 pool---one of the nicest homes in Imperial Point--I have been in the house---totally redone--granite, marble, beautiful double entry doors, etc. (old queen owned it) 384,000 sold price. This has been for sale for 2 plus years--originally asking $599,000.

2. 6411 NE 20th Way--ugly house, however, 2,089 sq ft, 2/2, sits on ocean access canal (fixed bridges, 364,100 sold price.

3. 6220 NE 21 Road--1,849 sq ft. 3/2 --sold for $340,000 on 2/17/04---just sold for $290,000.

4. 2533 NE 37 St. Almost across the street from Gary---one of the nicest streets in CRCC (coral ridge country club) beautiful home---2,900 sq ft. sold price $675,000

The trend is not pretty-----the article you sent suggests that Ft. Lauderdale may go down another 22% in next twelve months---if so---the owners above are the smart lucky ones.

Did I mention there will be multiple cocktails today and every day going forward.
i looked up county records and this is what i discovered & replied:

1) no prior sale listed but county shows current appraisal of $423,930 so it lost 10%.

2) 4.32% annual return since 1990 sale; 13.81% between 1990 & 1997 sales; 5.2% between 1997 sale & today; & 17.75% between 1997 & 1999; 13.60% between 1999 & 2003; between the current and the last sale lost 8.78% total or down 1.76% annually.

3) 19% return 2/23/2001 thru 7/31/2001; 15.06% return 2001 to 2004; lost 3.79% annually or total down 14.73% 2004 to 2008

4) a very respectible and likely appropriate 7.87% annual appreciation rate since 1968; 10.98% annually between 1968 & 1977; 8.01% between 1977 & 1985; 7.57% between 1985 & 1993; 6.57% between 1993 and the current sale. nothing wrong with that in the worst market since the depression.
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Old 05-11-2008, 10:19 PM   #132
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LG4NB, good analysis of the situation. It is always useful to reference against solid examples.

However, it should be remembered, these numbers do not always tell the full story. Our last house we purchased for $236k in Dec 2003. We sold in Oct 2005 for $306k. Looking at these numbers one could easily believe we made a really good return on our money. The truth is we made diddly-squat, the appreciation was due to the investment we made in improvements to that house, we probably broke even and not much more.
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Old 05-12-2008, 03:35 PM   #133
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so true that i do not know the exact story with each house. i can only say that though the sampling was small, it was picked at random. i did, however, find similar results with a similar study on a much larger sampling in the area of my inherited house which are all teardowns, so that any money invested, while that might have helped move a sale, likely did not increase the property value. and in today's market, especially, i don't imagine my neighbor getting much more for his granite countertops than i will get for my formica.

interesting article on both s&p & nar admitting to flawed housing data.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/080501/b242ec7a7a0849e48cb7f0808f8ef52d.html?.v=1&.pf=rea l-estate


Quote:
S&P Index Committee Chairman David Blitzer acknowledged his organization's overall and metro-market readings paint an incomplete picture. For that reason, he said, the report now charts price changes in 17 of the markets at three specific levels - low-, mid- and high-priced homes -- to provide a clearer assessment.

In the high-priced San Francisco area in February, for example, homes priced below $512,000 fell 32% in value from a year ago, while homes priced from $512,000 to $750,000 fell 21% in value and those over $750,000 fell 6%. (my underlining)

"The homes that had the biggest run-up and biggest run-down more often than not are the least-expensive homes," said Blitzer, S&P's managing director of portfolio services.
Yun said the S&P/Case-Shiller Index is flawed because "if you focus on down markets you're going to get a downward price. We are disappointed that its very limited market coverage gets such attention."
"The homes that had the biggest run-up and biggest run-down more often than not are the least-expensive homes," reflecting very much what i found in my "color in the red" study shown above.
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Old 07-22-2008, 11:25 AM   #134
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Residential rentals selling for a record of almost $600,000 per unit!!

Edgewater's $115M price shatters records - San Francisco Business Times:

Record setting price for trophy office building
Foreign investors scooping up District real estate - Washington Business Journal:


Commercial real estate doing fine!!
Sale prices up despite down economy - Orlando Business Journal:

Here's the view from the condo.



So we're bailing out a few NEW home builders that sold tons for record prices but have to sell their overstock for less (but still above costs) because they overbuilt.

So, if I'm to believe the experts here that say the commercial market collapses 6 months after the residential market then the residential market hasn't collapsed yet or the commercial market is different this time

I made an offer of over $600,000 on a one bedroom condo last week in SF, barely 8% under list, and didn't even get a counter. I gotta stop listening to crying wolves.
So they sold in 61 days at $645K. at least $30K more than I wanted to spend. And the real view is into a wall! You have to scootch yer chair over against the window to get this view. Housing Bubble my *ss!
My Realtor enjoyed sending me this.

MLS SFAR Reports (513)=

Gordon Biersch is only a block away!! A DUI would cost more than $30,000. I gotta stop listening to the naysayers.
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Old 07-22-2008, 12:28 PM   #135
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So they sold in 61 days at $645K. at least $30K more than I wanted to spend. And the real view is into a wall! You have to scootch yer chair over against the window to get this view. Housing Bubble my *ss!
My Realtor enjoyed sending me this.

MLS SFAR Reports (513)=

Gordon Biersch is only a block away!! A DUI would cost more than $30,000. I gotta stop listening to the naysayers.

I will never figure out why anyone would want to pay $650K plus for a 1 bedroom condo...

I lived in a company condo that was $750K 7 years ago in NYC... probably over $1 mill now... Here in Houston it would cost you maybe $750 per month... or even $1k per month if in a nice location...

To each his own I guess... have fun making a ton of money on this....
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Old 07-22-2008, 12:32 PM   #136
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I will never figure out why anyone would want to pay $650K plus for a 1 bedroom condo...

... Here in Houston it would cost you maybe $750 per month... or even $1k per month if in a nice location...
maybe it's not wanting to pay $650K, but NOT wanting to live in Houston, Texas.....you know, with the fire ants, etc.
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Old 07-22-2008, 12:54 PM   #137
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I will never figure out why anyone would want to pay $650K plus for a 1 bedroom condo...
The Greater Fools theory. Early investors in tulips made a killing.
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