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Tech... and the next 30 years
Old 06-26-2017, 11:11 AM   #1
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Tech... and the next 30 years

My timeline maxes out at 10 years, but yours may be for the next 30, or maybe 40 years.

Sooo.....for the past several hours, have been reading stuff about what's happening in technology.... from a $$$ standpoint, jobs, the economy in general, philosophy, history and what it will mean to our retirement.

Just in the past few days, stunning news items that are sure to change how we live and what will be happening around us.

A few examples...

Amazon and Whole foods... what it means to grocery stores and the retail industry. With retail and cashiering providing the greatest number of all US jobs, what happens when robots and tech changes the employment picture.

Physical labor jobs... where coal miner jobs are being replaced with machines
and fracking becomes more mechanized.

Drones... As imagination hasn't even begun to scratch the surface.

Uber... Not just Taxi driver jobs, but the obviation of the second car.

Education... new models for computer learning, and the coming decline in public education as we knew it.

Renewable energy.... in all formats

Privacy... Where we are today, and where we may be tomorrow.

So, there's little to be do about any of these tech advances, and I suppose it's just a matter of accepting what's happening, but, looking over the past from today's vantage, cannot remember when life happened so fast, and to so many.

Just a little venting, and wondering if it's just old age, or is the world moving faster than ever?
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Old 06-26-2017, 12:33 PM   #2
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I like to vent too, its good.
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Old 06-26-2017, 12:42 PM   #3
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Just a little venting, and wondering if it's just old age, or is the world moving faster than ever?
have you read the book Future Shock?
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Old 06-26-2017, 12:56 PM   #4
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Smart phone was introduced in 2007. All the 10-year forecasts from 2006 became obsolete. Most of the other stuff will be gated by government regulations/practices.
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Old 06-26-2017, 01:09 PM   #5
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Think back to 30 years ago; 1987. Yes, things have changed, and quite rapidly. Even in my short 43 years, no way would I have even began to guess what today would be like. I don't really think most of use *really* know what technology (or the rest of the world) will look like in 30 years. I think to even try to guess what life will be like then is grasping at straws.
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Old 06-26-2017, 01:38 PM   #6
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In 10 years I think Universal Basic Income will be a thing and I also think the space economy will be a thing. All MHO.
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Old 06-26-2017, 01:44 PM   #7
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I saw a quote, can't remember who, but it said in the future we will work 4 days a week and 4 hrs. a day. Now, really in the future, on Star Trek, there is no such thing as money.

That got me thinking about robots and AI. In theory robots, and make robots, and fix them. A little longer, and robots will design new robots. So what do humans do, and what would the function of money be. Robots could mine natural resources, and grow food. I don't think, but hey it could happen, that robots replace humans i.e. Cylons.
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Old 06-26-2017, 01:46 PM   #8
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OP: Why 'venting'? Why "little to do about any of these tech advances, and I suppose it's just a matter of accepting"?

They sound like positives (or positive elements to them) to me, bring 'em on!

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Old 06-26-2017, 01:49 PM   #9
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I saw a quote, can't remember who, but it said in the future we will work 4 days a week and 4 hrs. a day. Now, really in the future, on Star Trek, there is no such thing as money.
Yeah, something similar was supposed to happen back in the day, but that got ruined.
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Old 06-26-2017, 01:50 PM   #10
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In 10 years I think Universal Basic Income will be a thing and I also think the space economy will be a thing. All MHO.
I just learned this phrase a little while ago. UBI. Some day when my blood pressure goes lower i will discuss my feeling on it.
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Old 06-26-2017, 02:00 PM   #11
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Things that might arrive in 30 years:
  • Biological immortality
  • Self-driving transportation everywhere
  • Computing surpassing humans in every aspect
  • Drastic climate change
  • End of oil use
  • 2 billion new middle class citizens
  • Moore's law ending/not ending


Any of those by themselves render an almost unpredictable future.


Regarding robots: try to imagine the last job on earth done by humans. Right now I'm thinking it might be teaching humans how to be human.
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Old 06-26-2017, 02:00 PM   #12
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I just learned this phrase a little while ago. UBI. Some day when my blood pressure goes lower i will discuss my feeling on it.
Yeah, probably not here. That would certainly bring Porky into the picture...which is why I enjoy this forum so much!
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Old 06-26-2017, 02:13 PM   #13
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Things that might arrive in 30 years:
  • Moore's law ending/not ending
That's happened a number of times (and then reversed) in the last decade. No one knows (except that the gains are accelerating exponentially!)
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Old 06-26-2017, 02:34 PM   #14
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Things that might arrive in 30 years:
  • Biological immortality
  • Self-driving transportation everywhere
  • Computing surpassing humans in every aspect
  • Drastic climate change
  • End of oil use
  • 2 billion new middle class citizens
  • Moore's law ending/not ending
From what I've been reading and hearing recently, I fully expect self-driving cars and trucks to be ubiquitous within 30 years (probably even 20), but I don't see any of the others as highly likely in that time frame. Especially biological immortality. For that to occur, general AI would have to be developed first, and the estimates I've come across recently seem to hover around the 50-100 year range for that. Also, I recently read a report stating there are at least 50 years of proven oil reserves left around the world, so it seems unlikely we will completely stop using oil prior to that unless some dramatic new clean energy technologies become widespread in the next few decades.
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Old 06-26-2017, 02:48 PM   #15
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Things that might arrive in 30 years:
Moore's law ending/not ending
That's happened a number of times (and then reversed) in the last decade. No one knows (except that the gains are accelerating exponentially!)
I'm not too concerned about that, though I do believe it will happen in 10, 15 years. And slow down on the way there. They are getting down to the physical limits of size, a few atoms thick, and that's about it.

But that doesn't mean they can't learn how to make them better, and cheaper. Maybe a little faster and lower power, but I think a lot of that it tied to size. So just throw more chips in a package, we will keep getting better at that.

And I'm pretty sure our software is way inefficient, because processing power is so cheap. I think they will learn better ways to make programs run faster on the same power chips. Or offload to computers on the network. Heck, every router could have a processor in it dedicated to running programs for all the computers and smart phones attached, so your portable devices wouldn't need to be so powerful. Kinda like the old terminal and Central Processor days - the more things change, the more (Moore?) they stay the same.

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Old 06-26-2017, 02:54 PM   #16
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Or how about Quantum Computing?

I've never seriously tried to understand that (it probably wouldn't do any good), but from what I have read, if they can make these they just blow away our ideas of how powerful a computer can be.

Sounds like voodoo to me, sometimes I think these Quantum Computing guys are all sitting around drinking and playing video games and high-fiving each other that they tricked us into believing they're actually working on something, because they know we can't possibly understand what they are talking about. Like those guys that find smaller particles, and that just means they need to find the next smallest one. Who knows?

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Old 06-26-2017, 02:57 PM   #17
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Or how about Quantum Computing?

I've never seriously tried to understand that (it probably wouldn't do any good), but from what I have read, if they can make these they just blow away our ideas of how powerful a computer can be.

Sounds like voodoo to me, sometimes I think these Quantum Computing guys are all sitting around drinking and playing video games and high-fiving each other that they tricked us into believing they're actually working on something, because they know we can't possibly understand what they are talking about. Like those guys that find smaller particles, and that just means they need to find the next smallest one. Who knows?

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Old 06-26-2017, 02:58 PM   #18
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I think in 30 years, humans may be over 50% bionic (or another proper word).
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Old 06-26-2017, 03:08 PM   #19
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In 10 years I think Universal Basic Income will be a thing and I also think the space economy will be a thing. All MHO.
Obviously, my crystal ball is no clearer than yours, but I tend to think that the societal issues (such as the UBI concept) will move much slower than technological ones. The Swiss actually voted on a referendum for UBI last year - it failed and even the supporters expect it to take a decade or two to get to another ballot, let alone be implemented. Its a bold concept indeed!
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Old 06-26-2017, 03:09 PM   #20
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