Tech... and the next 30 years

[ERD50]

A former teacher explains quantum computing.

PM Justin Trudeau gives reporter quick lesson on quantum computing during visit to Waterloo - National | Globalnews.ca

Kind of reminds me of the Mary Tyler Moore interview, where she is asked a tough question, so answers the previous question that she had declined to answer!

But he went on, and though it doesn't help me understand it, it appears his answer was a good summary, he got a good response from a crowd who should know!

Thanks, very funny!


-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by LRDave View Post
In 10 years I think Universal Basic Income will be a thing and I also think the space economy will be a thing. All MHO.

Obviously, my crystal ball is no clearer than yours, but I tend to think ...

In this case, my crystal ball is as clear as a bell(*) - if a discussion of Universal Basic Income continues, this thread will be shut down in short order!

(*) Now I need to google that expression. A bell is usually brass, not clear at all. Though I've seen a few crystal glass bells, but that's a minority. And the sound is not 'clear', a bell has all sorts of weird harmonics. A tuning fork would be a 'clear' sound.

-ERD50

 

[Koolau]

In this case, my crystal ball is as clear as a bell(*) - if a discussion of Universal Basic Income continues, this thread will be shut down in short order!

(*) Now I need to google that expression. A bell is usually brass, not clear at all. Though I've seen a few crystal glass bells, but that's a minority. And the sound is not 'clear', a bell has all sorts of weird harmonics. A tuning fork would be a 'clear' sound.

-ERD50

Okay, so let's talk about something less controversial - yet still in the tech arena. How about Tesla cars?

 

[HFWR]

I would need a fairly large UBI to be able to afford a Tesla... [emoji51]

In a more general sense, I'm unsure whether our current political and economic systems are prepared for some of the things coming our way, like expanded life spans, climate change, an extra 2 billion people (middle-class or not), self-driving vehicles (and other automation/robots)...

 

[kcowan]

I would need a fairly large UBI to be able to afford a Tesla... [emoji51]

In a more general sense, I'm unsure whether our current political and economic systems are prepared for some of the things coming our way, like expanded life spans, climate change, an extra 2 billion people (middle-class or not), self-driving vehicles (and other automation/robots)...

Just ask Trudeau to explain UBI!

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

Just ask Trudeau to explain UBI!

I thought they were talking about Kevin Trudeau, the guy in prison.

 

[ChiliPepr]

I saw a quote, can't remember who, but it said in the future we will work 4 days a week and 4 hrs. a day. Now, really in the future, on Star Trek, there is no such thing as money.

It was Alibaba's Jack MA

In 10 years I think Universal Basic Income will be a thing and I also think the space economy will be a thing. All MHO.

I do not think the Space economy will be much in 10 years, I do not believe that any other planets or the moon will be colonized and that leave hauling more satellites and tourists into "space". It will be an economy, but a very small one.

Will leave UBI alone.

 

[donheff]

At Trump's tech CEO forum the other day Eric Schmidt said something to the effect of, "We (the tech industry) are going to deliver a tsunami of advances on your watch." Right after that I read this article about a revolution in wave guiding systems. The article states that, "the number of potential applications is close to infinite, with telecommunications, optical detection systems and broadband energy harvesting representing just a few examples." Maybe Schmidt was right.

 

[jollystomper]

That's been happening since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Farm laborers, miners, factory workers, telephone operators, ... All these industries had the number of jobs greatly reduced due to automation, but even more jobs were created as the economy advanced. I think that trend will continue.

I believe the problem this time is that the advances will happen at a much faster rate in the past, a rate that the labor market will not be able to keep pace with. Similar to how advances in computer hardware technology happen at a much faster pace than software. The result in my view will be less of a job "shifting" and more of jobs "disappearing".

 

[GrayHare]

One place robots are unlikely to replace humans is in arts and entertainment, not so much that robots could not, but more that audiences will prefer real humans.

For example, already robotics could replace a baseball pitcher and throw faster and more accurately than any human, but that's not what most people will pay to see.

IMO this century sports, arts, plays, movies, games, etc. created by and featuring humans will become a more common way to earn a living.

 

[googily]

One place robots are unlikely to replace humans is in arts and entertainment, not so much that robots could not, but more that audiences will prefer real humans.

For example, already robotics could replace a baseball pitcher and throw faster and more accurately than any human, but that's not what most people will pay to see.

IMO this century sports, arts, plays, movies, games, etc. created by and featuring humans will become a more common way to earn a living.

But how will people who've lost jobs to tech advances pay to see sports, arts, plays, movies, games, etc.?

And yes there may be "more jobs" in tech, but is someone who's driven a truck for 20 years going to suddenly get hired to write code?

 

[jollystomper]

But how will people who've lost jobs to tech advances pay to see sports, arts, plays, movies, games, etc.?

And yes there may be "more jobs" in tech, but is someone who's driven a truck for 20 years going to suddenly get hired to write code?

Also, consider how those who own/provide the sports/arts/games will look to save money. For example, you think sports teams owner enjoy paying increasingly large sums to the players?

I think if technical innovations could reduce that expense they would take a look at it. Think "Avatar" or VR technology applied to sports games... or movies... or plays...

 

[FIREmenow]

And yes there may be "more jobs" in tech, but is someone who's driven a truck for 20 years going to suddenly get hired to write code?

This doesn't happen overnight. People will have to see that things are changing and CHOOSE TO adapt (or not).

If I was a trucker (even for 20 years) and saw drones taking over delivery services like crazy, you bet your arse I'd be hoofing it down to my local community college to learn some new skills (all doable at night and online, thanks to technology). That's just the way the world works. You are not ENTITLED to keep doing what "you've always done"

I used to get upset at the tobacco farmers here in NC being interviewed on TV (not really that long ago) and DEMANDING subsidies from the government because tobacco sales were dropping and people were not smoking as much. Heck, that was 15 years in the making!!! Its been pretty darn obvious for a VERY long time that this was happening. Where the heck have you been all that time?

I'll stop before porky gets here....

 

[Totoro]

I do not think the Space economy will be much in 10 years, I do not believe that any other planets or the moon will be colonized and that leave hauling more satellites and tourists into "space". It will be an economy, but a very small one.

It's $330 billion already, and doubling every 10 years. Most of it commercial.

That's bigger than the Colorado GDP. Double it again and space is in the Top-10.

Agree on the colonization, way too far off. We might see experiments in mining asteroids.

 

[MRG]

I believe the problem this time is that the advances will happen at a much faster rate in the past, a rate that the labor market will not be able to keep pace with. Similar to how advances in computer hardware technology happen at a much faster pace than software. The result in my view will be less of a job "shifting" and more of jobs "disappearing".

I agree. The last twenty years of my career our job was to replace people with technology.

Remember all those data entry jobs? Gone! If a human didn't add value to the business transaction humans were replaced.

You see the trend of more and more serve yourself. Enter your data on the net and were done. No humans get involved.

As far as the truck driver needing education for a new career yes it can happen. After 10 years in logging and mills I went to night school to learn IT. Of course I was 27, hate to do it at 50.

 

[Totoro]

Remember all those data entry jobs? Gone! If a human didn't add value to the business transaction humans were replaced.

They're still here! On the strong decline, but still droves of them around.

 

[MRG]

They're still here! On the strong decline, but still droves of them around.

We had European clients too. They were slower to adopt replacing people by machines. Especially the Netherlands, it appeared to me there are very strong feelings about workers rights vs profits.

Of course is not just cultural, some types of transactions people have knowledge that does add value to the business.

If I'd compare the volume of incoming mail daily there's a big drop in volume due to internet and more self service. Even in businesses that have grown by large amounts their mail volume today is less than 20 years ago.

 

[imoldernu]

We need to think WAY beyond what we know.
As a very tiny, tiny part of looking ahead, this AM, NPR interviewed a restaurant owner discussing the matter of "Tips" (to insure promptness), and what it would mean to the food business, and eventually, to the business of food production as an industry. Food production... not restaurants' future. A matter of "for want of a nail...."

As much as we have experts in every field of endeavor, I believe we're still at the point of trying to save the "shoe". Not likely in my lifetime... maybe 10 years, but very soon, Artificial Intelligence may provide answers that mortals are not genetically constituted to comprehend.

My textile worker dad, back in the late 1940's, told me...
"Bobby... the machines are doing so many of the things that millworkers do today. When you're old enough to go to work, you'll only have to work 30 hours a week."

Take from that, what you will.

Personally, I believe that we (the world) has the tools to be perfect, safe, and ultimately rewarding for every individual. The only lingering restrictions are the bad seeds of greed and ego.
..............................................................................................

My plan:
Early, intense education and nurturing of the very young... birth to age six.
Assessment of intelligence and leadership ability at age 15. From there, to build a totalitarian world/state.

Within the next 30 years, I think this could be possible.

 

[Koolau]

We need to think WAY beyond what we know.
As a very tiny, tiny part of looking ahead, this AM, NPR interviewed a restaurant owner discussing the matter of "Tips" (to insure promptness), and what it would mean to the food business, and eventually, to the business of food production as an industry. Food production... not restaurants' future. A matter of "for want of a nail...."

As much as we have experts in every field of endeavor, I believe we're still at the point of trying to save the "shoe". Not likely in my lifetime... maybe 10 years, but very soon, Artificial Intelligence may provide answers that mortals are not genetically constituted to comprehend.

My textile worker dad, back in the late 1940's, told me...
"Bobby... the machines are doing so many of the things that millworkers do today. When you're old enough to go to work, you'll only have to work 30 hours a week."

Take from that, what you will.

Personally, I believe that we (the world) has the tools to be perfect, safe, and ultimately rewarding for every individual. The only lingering restrictions are the bad seeds of greed and ego.
..............................................................................................

My plan:
Early, intense education and nurturing of the very young... birth to age six.
Assessment of intelligence and leadership ability at age 15. From there, to build a totalitarian world/state.

Within the next 30 years, I think this could be possible.

In the words of Marty McFly "Heavy"

 

[ERD50]

...

My textile worker dad, back in the late 1940's, told me...
"Bobby... the machines are doing so many of the things that millworkers do today. When you're old enough to go to work, you'll only have to work 30 hours a week."

Take from that, what you will. ...

Well, if you take maybe an average 50 hour week while I was working, with the likelihood that I will be retired for as long as I worked, that averages out to a 25 hour work week.

Does that count?

-ERD50