Tech... and the next 30 years

[imoldernu]

My timeline maxes out at 10 years, but yours may be for the next 30, or maybe 40 years.

Sooo.....for the past several hours, have been reading stuff about what's happening in technology.... from a $$$ standpoint, jobs, the economy in general, philosophy, history and what it will mean to our retirement.

Just in the past few days, stunning news items that are sure to change how we live and what will be happening around us.

A few examples...

Amazon and Whole foods... what it means to grocery stores and the retail industry. With retail and cashiering providing the greatest number of all US jobs, what happens when robots and tech changes the employment picture.

Physical labor jobs... where coal miner jobs are being replaced with machines
and fracking becomes more mechanized.

Drones... As imagination hasn't even begun to scratch the surface.

Uber... Not just Taxi driver jobs, but the obviation of the second car.

Education... new models for computer learning, and the coming decline in public education as we knew it.

Renewable energy.... in all formats

Privacy... Where we are today, and where we may be tomorrow.

So, there's little to be do about any of these tech advances, and I suppose it's just a matter of accepting what's happening, but, looking over the past from today's vantage, cannot remember when life happened so fast, and to so many.

Just a little venting, and wondering if it's just old age, or is the world moving faster than ever?

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

I like to vent too, its good.

 

[Big_Hitter]

Just a little venting, and wondering if it's just old age, or is the world moving faster than ever?

have you read the book Future Shock?

 

[kcowan]

Smart phone was introduced in 2007. All the 10-year forecasts from 2006 became obsolete. Most of the other stuff will be gated by government regulations/practices.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Think back to 30 years ago; 1987. Yes, things have changed, and quite rapidly. Even in my short 43 years, no way would I have even began to guess what today would be like. I don't really think most of use *really* know what technology (or the rest of the world) will look like in 30 years. I think to even try to guess what life will be like then is grasping at straws.

 

[LRDave]

In 10 years I think Universal Basic Income will be a thing and I also think the space economy will be a thing. All MHO.

 

[Rustic23]

I saw a quote, can't remember who, but it said in the future we will work 4 days a week and 4 hrs. a day. Now, really in the future, on Star Trek, there is no such thing as money.

That got me thinking about robots and AI. In theory robots, and make robots, and fix them. A little longer, and robots will design new robots. So what do humans do, and what would the function of money be. Robots could mine natural resources, and grow food. I don't think, but hey it could happen, that robots replace humans i.e. Cylons.

 

[ERD50]

OP: Why 'venting'? Why "little to do about any of these tech advances, and I suppose it's just a matter of accepting"?

They sound like positives (or positive elements to them) to me, bring 'em on!

-ERD50

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

I saw a quote, can't remember who, but it said in the future we will work 4 days a week and 4 hrs. a day. Now, really in the future, on Star Trek, there is no such thing as money.

Yeah, something similar was supposed to happen back in the day, but that got ruined.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

In 10 years I think Universal Basic Income will be a thing and I also think the space economy will be a thing. All MHO.

I just learned this phrase a little while ago. UBI. Some day when my blood pressure goes lower i will discuss my feeling on it.

 

[Totoro]

Things that might arrive in 30 years:

• Biological immortality
• Self-driving transportation everywhere
• Computing surpassing humans in every aspect
• Drastic climate change
• End of oil use
• 2 billion new middle class citizens
• Moore's law ending/not ending

Any of those by themselves render an almost unpredictable future.


Regarding robots: try to imagine the last job on earth done by humans. Right now I'm thinking it might be teaching humans how to be human.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

I just learned this phrase a little while ago. UBI. Some day when my blood pressure goes lower i will discuss my feeling on it.

Yeah, probably not here. That would certainly bring Porky into the picture...which is why I enjoy this forum so much!

 

[FIREmenow]

Things that might arrive in 30 years:

• Moore's law ending/not ending

That's happened a number of times (and then reversed) in the last decade. No one knows (except that the gains are accelerating exponentially!)

 

[Sojourner]

Things that might arrive in 30 years:

• Biological immortality
• Self-driving transportation everywhere
• Computing surpassing humans in every aspect
• Drastic climate change
• End of oil use
• 2 billion new middle class citizens
• Moore's law ending/not ending

From what I've been reading and hearing recently, I fully expect self-driving cars and trucks to be ubiquitous within 30 years (probably even 20), but I don't see any of the others as highly likely in that time frame. Especially biological immortality. For that to occur, general AI would have to be developed first, and the estimates I've come across recently seem to hover around the 50-100 year range for that. Also, I recently read a report stating there are at least 50 years of proven oil reserves left around the world, so it seems unlikely we will completely stop using oil prior to that unless some dramatic new clean energy technologies become widespread in the next few decades.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by Totoro View Post
Things that might arrive in 30 years:
Moore's law ending/not ending

That's happened a number of times (and then reversed) in the last decade. No one knows (except that the gains are accelerating exponentially!)

I'm not too concerned about that, though I do believe it will happen in 10, 15 years. And slow down on the way there. They are getting down to the physical limits of size, a few atoms thick, and that's about it.

But that doesn't mean they can't learn how to make them better, and cheaper. Maybe a little faster and lower power, but I think a lot of that it tied to size. So just throw more chips in a package, we will keep getting better at that.

And I'm pretty sure our software is way inefficient, because processing power is so cheap. I think they will learn better ways to make programs run faster on the same power chips. Or offload to computers on the network. Heck, every router could have a processor in it dedicated to running programs for all the computers and smart phones attached, so your portable devices wouldn't need to be so powerful. Kinda like the old terminal and Central Processor days - the more things change, the more (Moore?) they stay the same.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Or how about Quantum Computing?

I've never seriously tried to understand that (it probably wouldn't do any good), but from what I have read, if they can make these they just blow away our ideas of how powerful a computer can be.

Sounds like voodoo to me, sometimes I think these Quantum Computing guys are all sitting around drinking and playing video games and high-fiving each other that they tricked us into believing they're actually working on something, because they know we can't possibly understand what they are talking about. Like those guys that find smaller particles, and that just means they need to find the next smallest one. Who knows?

-ERD50

 

[Meadbh]

Or how about Quantum Computing?

I've never seriously tried to understand that (it probably wouldn't do any good), but from what I have read, if they can make these they just blow away our ideas of how powerful a computer can be.

Sounds like voodoo to me, sometimes I think these Quantum Computing guys are all sitting around drinking and playing video games and high-fiving each other that they tricked us into believing they're actually working on something, because they know we can't possibly understand what they are talking about. Like those guys that find smaller particles, and that just means they need to find the next smallest one. Who knows?

-ERD50

A former teacher explains quantum computing.

PM Justin Trudeau gives reporter quick lesson on quantum computing during visit to Waterloo - National | Globalnews.ca

 

[easysurfer]

I think in 30 years, humans may be over 50% bionic (or another proper word).

 

[euro]

In 10 years I think Universal Basic Income will be a thing and I also think the space economy will be a thing. All MHO.

Obviously, my crystal ball is no clearer than yours, but I tend to think that the societal issues (such as the UBI concept) will move much slower than technological ones. The Swiss actually voted on a referendum for UBI last year - it failed and even the supporters expect it to take a decade or two to get to another ballot, let alone be implemented. Its a bold concept indeed!

 

[euro]

A former teacher explains quantum computing.

PM Justin Trudeau gives reporter quick lesson on quantum computing during visit to Waterloo - National | Globalnews.ca

sigh

 

[GrayHare]

Quantum computing works by tapping the power of computers operating concurrently in nearby parallel universes.

With time there is a general migration of technology/machines/approaches from business and government into individual use. For example, from wikipedia, "The Cray-2 released in 1985 was a 4 processor liquid cooled computer totally immersed in a tank of Fluorinert, which bubbled as it operated.[15] It could perform to 1.9 gigaflops and was the world's second fastest supercomputer." Now each of us can inexpensively carry that much computational power in a hand held device.

The skies have been occupied by those who could afford planes, but now drones permit inexpensive aviation for the general public.

There will be greater integration between tech and human. Perhaps wearable devices will monitor your thoughts and provide information as soon as a question arises in your mind.

There will be an escalating battle between advertisers and customers, with still new ways to get ads into our brains, followed by new ways to block them.

As privacy erodes, individuals will do what spy agenicies do and create alternate identities and even avatars to substitute for them. Individuals may resort to spying on those who spy on them.

 

[LRDave]

I just learned this phrase a little while ago. UBI. Some day when my blood pressure goes lower i will discuss my feeling on it.

I don't want to spur porky into action as well, so let's dance around this topic nicely.

Think of a world where there just isn't nearly enough "work" for all the souls on this planet. Nobody's being lazy or not trying to get productive work. It's just that a robot/computing combo-filled world of commerce makes human labor superfluous. I'll leave it at that.....

 

[jollystomper]

One major trend will be continued us of technology to eliminate the largest cost a business has - human labor.

For example, although much has been made about driverless cars, the trucking companies are the ones that are hot on this technology. Imagine shipping things via trucks without the cost of the driver and the regulations that dictate how many hours a driver can drive.

Even in restaurants, I am encountering more places where you order and pay for your meal at the table using technology, without interacting with a server. Tthe server only brings the things to your table. What happens when that last task is automated - no reason a drone or some type of conveyor system could not do that.

Those things have a big implication for labor. As mainframes became more automated, you went from perhaps a dozen operators for a mainframe to one operator managing multiple mainframes.

The jobs will require more skill and may pay better - but there will be fewer of them. How that gets dealt with from an employment and wages perspective will be interesting.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

I don't want to spur porky into action as well, so let's dance around this topic nicely.

Think of a world where there just isn't nearly enough "work" for all the souls on this planet. Nobody's being lazy or not trying to get productive work. It's just that a robot/computing combo-filled world of commerce makes human labor superfluous. I'll leave it at that.....

ok, ty, before that happens, please follow me to my uncle thru marriage's bowling alley. I got a long line of lazy there. But i do sincerely thank you for a nice explanation.

 

[Which Roger]

One major trend will be continued us of technology to eliminate the largest cost a business has - human labor.

That's been happening since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Farm laborers, miners, factory workers, telephone operators, ... All these industries had the number of jobs greatly reduced due to automation, but even more jobs were created as the economy advanced. I think that trend will continue.