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Well oil is over 91 a barrel heading to 100+.
Old 10-26-2007, 05:42 AM   #1
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Well oil is over 91 a barrel heading to 100+.

This will be the big deal early next year, and don't start well my energy sector is doing great. This has recession written all over the american economy.
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Old 10-26-2007, 07:29 AM   #2
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I am a bit surprised that after the softening we saw early in the week that it jumped back up.
Seems OPEC isn't yet able to deliver on it's full quota yet. Sparking supply fears.
If prices don't decrease before the busy season next late spring, I am going to be very happy I have my Prius and very ticked off that I don't have more oil companies
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Old 10-26-2007, 09:20 AM   #3
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My energy sector is doing great ! Oops ! We are not supposed to mention that !
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Old 10-26-2007, 09:28 AM   #4
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I think there is an increased belief that OPEC is producing all it can, but it is trying to explain its "decision" not to produce more in other terms. At this point, given the stagflationary potential of sky-high oil prices, I think they would be producing more if they could.

At least my position in IXC is rising faster than my expenses at the pump. I don't like what's happening with oil prices, but I can at least protect myself by holding investments that can rise along with them.
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Old 10-26-2007, 01:41 PM   #5
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If it doesn't come down Drill in ANWAR, off our coasts, develop the oil shales and go nuc . Also add wind where possible. OOPS can't do that we need to go back to the 16th century energy consumption to keep the GREENS happy.
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Old 10-26-2007, 01:53 PM   #6
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I am heavy on energy in my mutual funds. Wonder what will happen to make energy funds take a deep dive and when? Since I am more loaded up on it now than ever (U.S. and Intl), the dive is probably right around the corner. With my excellent history of buying high and selling low . . .

Anyone care to share their predictions for the energy sector? Everything I know about stocks, I have learned here. Am reading Bernstein's Four Pillars very s l o w l y .

TG
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Old 10-26-2007, 02:44 PM   #7
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USK, if by "GREENS" you mean the extremists who don't research what they are talking about, yes, I agree they will try to stop a spread of nuclear power.
However, most people that are concerned about the enviornment and have done ANY research realize nuclear power is FAR cleaner than coal.

I don't think the energy sector will collapse until well after peak oil. I am not sure we are at peak yet, but it is possible.

If there were a revolutionary 'free energy' technology that became widely available, that could do it. But knowing humans, if we find 'free/cheap' energy we will simply consume more of it. And, I don't believe any sort of 'free' energy is possible.
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Old 10-26-2007, 04:07 PM   #8
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I don't think the energy sector will collapse until well after peak oil. I am not sure we are at peak yet, but it is possible.
I would sure like to understand the reasoning behind this. If we are at peak oil, or whenever that may happen, certain energy related securities will go to the moon.

You will never see a buying panic to equal this one.

Ha
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Old 10-26-2007, 04:25 PM   #9
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I would sure like to understand the reasoning behind this. If we are at peak oil, or whenever that may happen, certain energy related securities will go to the moon.

You will never see a buying panic to equal this one.

Ha
Just speculation here, but I wonder about that. Considering that some forms of alternate energy are marginally cost effective now, if we do hit peak oil, maybe it won't be so dramatic. Maybe it will just usher in a shift to alternatives. And certainly conservation, as the prices rise (but maybe not to the moon).

If the peak is a decade or so away, and alternatives improve, and if the peak is a flattening or a gentle downturn, it could be a relatively mild transition.

or not

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Old 10-26-2007, 04:59 PM   #10
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Well oil is over 91 a barrel heading to 100+.
Speed the day! This is my time!

When I can't keep up with the overtime anymore, maybe I will retire to Venezuela and burn Chavez's 25 cent/gallon gasoline.

Black Oil Gypsy
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Old 10-26-2007, 06:49 PM   #11
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haha, your thinking is correct. Energy futures will have a huge bonus as oil becomes scarce. That is why I said "well after peak oil".
This also is only a possibility. My guess as to when it would be possible that we could see a drastic drop.
I suspect the drop would only happen to companies that refuse to research clean alternatives. Frankly, I don't know if there are any companies outright refusing to do so. That speculation on my part was in answer to TexasGal's question "Wonder what will happen to make energy funds take a deep dive and when?".
One other thought, I suppose narrowing margins could take a toll as well.
As I understand it, many refiners were getting very very narrow margins recently.
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Old 10-27-2007, 12:09 AM   #12
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Speed the day! This is my time!

When I can't keep up with the overtime anymore, maybe I will retire to Venezuela and burn Chavez's 25 cent/gallon gasoline.

Black Oil Gypsy
Amen Ed

Peak conventional oil may already be here, I really don't know, but peak oil is hundreds or thousands of years away. Alberta has huge proven reserves of oil sands. Actually about 8 times what Saudi Arabia has. The Oil Sands Of Alberta, Where Black Gold And Riches Can Be Found In The Sand - CBS News The challenge is getting enough workers, mines, plants, pipelines, and refineries built quickly enough to handle increasing world demand.

On the topic of oil and a U.S. recession, the price of oil adjusted for inflation back in the 70's when things got bad was $105 per barrel.
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Old 10-27-2007, 09:01 PM   #13
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ive been eyeballing vanguards energy fund, but dont have enough in my ira or roth to fund the 25k initial investment. ive watched it climb some 30% this year!!


how can i get in on vanguards fund without the required 25k?
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Old 10-27-2007, 09:38 PM   #14
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The challenge is getting enough workers, mines, plants, pipelines, and refineries built quickly enough to handle increasing world demand.
Grizz,

I am doing my part. These stupes could work a lot smarter and I do the best I can to improve things but there are none so blind as those who will not see.
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Old 10-28-2007, 09:22 AM   #15
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The challenge is getting enough workers, mines, plants, pipelines, and refineries built quickly enough to handle increasing world demand.

Yep, but that challenge could prevent oil sands from coming to the rescue, if the more pessimistic predictions of Hubbert's peak are correct. I think the entire output of the Athabasca Oil Sands is less than 1MM bpd, and current projections are it'll be 10 years before its even at 4MM bpd, roughly the output of Mexico. If (if) peak oil does happen in this decade, and Chinese demand continues to rise at the pace of the past few years, it seems to me the oil sands would barely dent the supply shortage in the medium term.
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Old 10-28-2007, 04:21 PM   #16
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Don't oil sands also take a huge environmental toll?

I'm hoping alternatives to fossil fuels will be good enough by then to avoid sifting through the sands to burn more dead dinos.

-ERD50
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Old 10-28-2007, 05:08 PM   #17
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If (if) peak oil does happen in this decade, and Chinese demand continues to rise at the pace of the past few years, it seems to me the oil sands would barely dent the supply shortage in the medium term.
This is, of course, the problem with drilling in ANWR. By the time the fields get online, it'll be a trickle to our then demands (even if a "superfield" is discovered).
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Old 10-28-2007, 05:31 PM   #18
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Don't oil sands also take a huge environmental toll?

I'm hoping alternatives to fossil fuels will be good enough by then to avoid sifting through the sands to burn more dead dinos.

-ERD50
They do take a toll, whether it's huge or not is often debated. I'll preface this by saying that I am not much of a tree hugger.

The area where the oil sands are located is very large and pretty much uninhabited by people. It's an inhospitable place for people to live, and while activity will probably have some effect on wildlife, if you were to fly over it you'd realize that there is and will always be lots of room to roam.

This province is over run with oil industry activity. While it is my home province, I realize that money rules the world, and this place has oil everywhere you look. While there is some reclamation work going on, I look at things as they are. To be blunt, Alberta is a just place where people can and do make fortunes and then take their loot and leave for better weather and scenery. In essence a big work camp.

Apart from the western part of the province (Rocky Mountains), the province is more or less flat and either forest or farm land. Our lakes are kind of green and slimy, and the weather is far from pleasant much of the year. There really isn't much in the way of natural beauty to stay for and defend so I'm convinced that this area will one day be a wasteland, with most of the natural resources used up and most of the population long gone. As long as money rules, nobody can or will change that and I'm at peace with it.
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Old 10-28-2007, 06:29 PM   #19
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how can i get in on vanguards fund without the required 25k?

You can buy Vanguard's Energy ETF (VDE)

https://personal.vanguard.com/VGApp/...FundIntExt=INT
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