New Weight Loss/Obesity Drugs Could Transform Economy

[Trooper]

A new class of weight loss/obesity drugs called semaglutides, a diabetes drug that also has weight loss effects, could be responsible for transforming the economy in many sectors, analysts say. Ozempic is one of the major brand names, and works by mimicking a naturally occurring hormone. As those hormone levels rise, the molecules go to your brain, telling it you're full. It also slows digestion by increasing the time it takes for food to leave the body. This is similar to the effect of bariatric surgery.

https://www.businessinsider.com/semaglutide-wegovy-ozempic-weight-loss-healthcare-airlines-economy-productivity-2023-11

The effects could be much broader than food and healthcare. As Josh Barro recently wrote in his economics and business newsletter "Very Serious," workers could be more productive because they live longer, healthier, and happier lives.

"Lower disease burden will mean fewer sick days and higher labor productivity," Barro projects. "And there will be huge gains in personal happiness: well over a hundred million Americans who have been struggling all their lives to control their weight will be finally succeeding at it, and in a way that does not involve a great deal of mental effort or perceived sacrifice."

This could increase people's self-esteem, Barro posits, and could allow people to redirect energy and resources from dieting to other activities as well as change their consumption. Additionally, employee productivity could increase as Americans see the long-term benefits of weight loss and stay in the workforce longer.

Radical weight loss could change what people buy and affect companies' bottom lines
Some businesses have already seen changes in consumer behavior due to GLP-1 drugs, which clinical trials have shown could help patients lose an average of 15% of their body weight over 68 weeks.

An August survey by Morgan Stanley of 300 people using GLP-1 drugs for weight loss found that 77% of respondents reported visiting fast-food restaurants "less frequently," while 61% and 59% said the same about casual dining restaurants and coffee shops, respectively.

Meanwhile, GLP-1s could indirectly help other businesses, like airlines. A Jefferies Financial analyst used data from United Airlines and calculated that the company could save 27.6 million gallons of fuel per year, at a cost of $80 million, if the average passenger weighed 10 pounds less.

Insurance companies haven't been lining up to cover the drugs, which costs somewhere between $900 and $1200 per month. Medicare does not cover them at all.

Thoughts?

 

[mpeirce]

From what I've read about them, the biggest challenge is that people regain the weight after they go off the drugs.

If someone losses weight, it's important to make permanent changes to how they eat if they want to keep it off.

 

[aja8888]

I found out this week that two of my ROMEO friends are taking Ozempic. I guess thay have been taking it for months now, but I don't think it is working!

 

[brett]

I believe that many people are lazy and they expect instant change.

Instead....many might want to think about eating a proper diet in moderation. Cutting out the fast food, the cakes, chips, and soft drinks, etc.

Plus a little exercise. Maybe try walking a little further than just from the car to house. Some do not even walk from the car to the fast food joint.....they use drive up.

Too many people make excuses for themselves. The MLM industry is getting rich selling these phony weight reduction pills and drinks.

We had some friends from Europe visit the US. The first thing they noticed was how many obese people there were...especially young people. Sad really.

 

[GrayHare]

IMO it's the honeymoon phase where the drawbacks have yet to be discovered.

 

[audreyh1]

Medicine has certainly been moving this direction so I’m not surprised.

At $900 to $1200 a month eating a low carb whole foods diet is much cheaper even paying extra for high quality groceries.

 

[sengsational]

These drugs might change body composition (reduce muscle mass), so as much hype as has gone into these compounds, there are negative side effects that might "transform the economy" in the other direction, at least a little bit. Of course it's not wise to let perfect be the enemy of good, and these compounds have proven themselves in obese populations, at least in the relatively short term studies published so far in this specific population.

 

[erkevin]

The drawbacks are already being uncovered; the drugs are meant to be taken continuously. Stopping the drug will cause the weight to return unless other lifestyle changes have been implemented. The weight loss caused by these drugs will include both fat and muscle. It is imperative that strength training is a part of the weight loss in order to mitigate that. Worse case scenario; people take the drug, lose weight (fat and muscle), go off of the drug and the weight returns in the form of fat. In the end, you are in worse health than if you had never taken the drug to begin with.

 

[omni550]

These drugs were initially developed for diabetes control. Then people noticed their quick and substantial weight loss

I know 3 people on these drugs. One guy has lost a TON of weight (I'm guessing 50-60#). He is a diabetic.

Lady #1 has lost 10 lbs in 1 year. She's 'sort of borderline' diabetic. I haven't noticed any significant changes in her eating habits.

Lady #2 has lost 35 lbs in one year, and looks great, feels great, and all her blood markers are perfect. I think she was/is a real borderline diabetic. She is planning on losing more weight.

Lady #2 had a miserable summer of 2022, as the drug made her very ill...she'd be randomly nauseous and/or had diarrhea...to the point where she couldn't leave the house for a few months for fear of having 'issues'. Even now, she can only eat a few tablespoonfuls of food as a meal (and not more than 3 different foods).

From my reading, one risk with these drugs seems to be possible mental health issues. https://www.npr.org/sections/health...eports-of-possible-mental-health-side-effects


omni

 

[Qs Laptop]

A new class of weight loss/obesity drugs called semaglutides, a diabetes drug that also has weight loss effects, could be responsible for transforming the economy in many sectors, analysts say. Ozempic is one of the major brand names, and works by mimicking a naturally occurring hormone. As those hormone levels rise, the molecules go to your brain, telling it you're full. It also slows digestion by increasing the time it takes for food to leave the body. This is similar to the effect of bariatric surgery.


Insurance companies haven't been lining up to cover the drugs, which costs somewhere between $900 and $1200 per month. Medicare does not cover them at all.

Thoughts?

I bought Eli Lilly stock because of this "new" drug. The drug has been used for years to treat diabetes and one of the side effects was weight loss. Another side effect is lowering the risk of heart attacks. It's also shown promise in treating Alzheimer's. It is truly going to revolutionize health care.

Novo Nordisk makes Ozempic for diabetes. Their weight loss version of this drug is called Wegovy.

Eli Lilly makes Mounjaro for diabetes. Their weight loss version of this drug is called Zepbound.

Most people that take it report an average weight loss of 25% in 12 months or so. So if someone weighs 270 lbs. they could weigh 200 lbs. in one year with Zepbound.

Right now the drug is expensive. That doesn't seem to be stopping people as Eli Lilly announced on Monday that it was adding 25,000 new prescriptions PER WEEK in December. Novo Nordisk is building a $2 Billion production facility in France to keep up with demand. Eli Lilly is building a $2.5 Billion production plant in Germany.

The price of the drug will drop as more people start taking it, more people see the success of the drug and when insurance companies come on board. Insurance companies will realize the auxiliary benefits of non-obese patients and will have no choice but to cover its use.

Right now the drug is injectable but both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are working on an oral version of the drug.

The drug will influence a lot of industries. For example, Weight Watchers stock plummetted from a $13 a share price to under $7 a share in the month preceding FDA approval of Lilly's Zepbound (Nov. 14, 2023.) Fast food restaurant stocks dipped. Soft drink stocks dipped.

This drug is a game changer.

 

[HawkOwl]

I think it has a lot of potential.

I have been taking oral semaglutide (rybelsus) for type 2 diabetes the last two years, and as a side effect I have lost over 50 pounds. This is something I was never been able accomplish in any other way. My blood pressure has lowered, along with my weight, and now I am able to exercise more vigorously than was possible previously.

One of the issues is that the drug is fda approved for the lowering of blood glucose levels in type 2 diabetics. To my knowledge, weight control is an off-label use. Physicians can still prescribe it, but it gives insurance companies grounds to refuse to cover an expensive medication.

At the risk of sounding cynical, I don’t believe that your health is your insurance company’s number one priority. It may get more coverage once it is off patent and generic versions are available.

 

[Qs Laptop]

IMO it's the honeymoon phase where the drawbacks have yet to be discovered.

Nope. These are diabetic drugs that have been used for years. They are well understood. Ozempic was FDA approved in 2017.

 

[Qs Laptop]

From what I've read about them, the biggest challenge is that people regain the weight after they go off the drugs.

Yep, this is a problem.

If someone losses weight, it's important to make permanent changes to how they eat if they want to keep it off.

Absolutely. This should be the goal. Better eating habits should be preached when people are losing the weight so when they get to the goal weight they will be acclimated to healthier foods.

It might be that someone needs to take the drug for long periods of time. The goal might be to get an oral version of the drug and tailor the dosage strength to fit individual's needs. It could become like a statin that a person takes every day. Eventually, a generic version will be available and the cost will be miniscule.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Anyone that I know with diabetes loses a lot of weight once they are on medication for type two. I have exercised my entire life but let myself get fat after retirement.

During the pandemic I noticed that old, fat people with preexisting conditions were dying so I changed the only thing that I could which was my weight. I lost 50 lbs counting calories and almost 4 years later have maintained it.

 

[Idnar7]

I am a Type 2 diabetic and have been for 20 years. Started Ozempic about 5 years ago. One problem I have had in the last couple years is the pharmacy not able to maintain an inventory. I used to get a 3 month supply and now they limit it to 1 month. I used to get it mailed, but now I have to pick it up. A couple times when they were on backorder I had to order from a different pharmacy and go pick it up. Once I did run out but got some within a week (taken weekly). I know the pressure is caused by non-diabetic people using it for weight loss. I find it hard to believe a physician would write a prescription for weight loss.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

I am a Type 2 diabetic and have been for 20 years. Started Ozempic about 5 years ago. One problem I have had in the last couple years is the pharmacy not able to maintain an inventory. I used to get a 3 month supply and now they limit it to 1 month. I used to get it mailed, but now I have to pick it up. A couple times when they were on backorder I had to order from a different pharmacy and go pick it up. Once I did run out but got some within a week (taken weekly). I know the pressure is caused by non-diabetic people using it for weight loss. I find it hard to believe a physician would write a prescription for weight loss.

Yes. a diabetic friend has had trouble getting Ozempic due to the demand from people who don't really need it.

 

[Qs Laptop]

I think it has a lot of potential.

I have been taking oral semaglutide (rybelsus) for type 2 diabetes the last two years, and as a side effect I have lost over 50 pounds. This is something I was never been able accomplish in any other way. My blood pressure has lowered, along with my weight, and now I am able to exercise more vigorously than was possible previously.

Congratulations on your progress! Good news all around.

 

[athena53]

Thoughts?

Mixed.

I do believe that there are people who can't lose by usual "eat less, move more" rule. I met a lovely woman on a cruise who had had bariatric surgery and she said she'd tried everything else. She was being very disciplined about eating small, high-protein meals and not "drinking her calories" so I don't think lack of discipline was the reason for her obesity.

I also believe that we all pay for obesity in the form of higher medical costs (reflected in our premiums) and indirect costs such as the interesting airline stat cited above, more disability, people who become unemployable, etc. So, there are benefits to addressing the problem.

BUT-these drugs are lifelong income streams to Big Pharma. You quit taking them, they quit working. And every drug has side effects. I'd much rather see our healthcare system working to help people manage their relationship with food- the ones who grew up with scarcity, the ones who eat for comfort or to relieve boredom, the ones who make rich, fatty meals to show their love. I believe these drugs should be a last resort, with only bariatric surgery as a less-desirable intervention.

 

[Mark1]

The following quote summarized it nicely for me.

"....well over a hundred million Americans who have been struggling all their lives to control their weight will be finally succeeding at it, and in a way that does not involve a great deal of mental effort or perceived sacrifice."

Finally an approach where I have to do nothing.
We continue to hear about all these great approaches to deal with America's weight problem, but yet every year we get more and more obese.
I might recommend buying the Pharma stock, but I wouldn't dump my Jet fuel stocks just quite yet.

 

[GenXguy]

I would be concerned about gastroparesis.

I took a different medication (anxiety) and quit over a month ago that has continued causing me stomach pains and gurgling.

 

[Sunset]

.....

I do believe that there are people who can't lose by usual "eat less, move more" rule. I met a lovely woman on a cruise who had had bariatric surgery and she said she'd tried everything else. She was being very disciplined about eating small, high-protein meals and not "drinking her calories" so I don't think lack of discipline was the reason for her obesity.

....

For SOME overweight people, like my sister, they would publicly eat small amounts, say all the correct things (blatant lies), blame it on her hormones.

And then almost like a drug addict, fulfill her need to eat secretly so nobody knows.

 

[Aerides]

There are people who simply cannot drop their body weight to "safe" levels, I have no judgment for that, and hope we can refrain from that in this thread as it's not helpful. Some people have struggled their whole life and will never be under 25BMI by diet/exercise.

That aside, I simply don't know how there are THAT many overweight people with disposable income upwards of $1300 a month to throw at these drugs. I don't think it's covered by insurance in most cases.

But if it is impacting the economy? Junk and fast food taking a hit? Good for all of us. We all know that those foods pack in sugars and fats with the whole point of making us want to eat more of them.

 

[djsander]

I used to weigh in at 275 with BP of 150/90 and just borderline pre-diabetic. Now I am around 185 and BP 116/65. No meds for BP and doc never tried putting me on them. When I was working I would have several sausage biscuits for breakfast, usually a big lunch out or diner food if on the road and then we would have a big meal or fast food out at home. I slowly cut out all the junk and now retired we only eat out occasional. The few times I’ve ate a fast food burger now they taste really bad. I can’t even finish the portions when we eat out now. I’m still borderline pre-diabetic, but my doc said it may be that way for the rest of my life. Cholesterol has always been good. I’m still slightly over the 25 BMI, but I’m not concerned about that with the rest of my stats.

 

[audreyh1]

It’s not really the weight, it’s the metabolic disorder which for many culminates in type 2 diabetes and puts one at higher risk for many “modern” diseases. The metabolic disorder is what needs to be treated. Gaining weight is a side effect of poor metabolic heath.

 

[Surewhitey]

I can't help but think about fen-phen... I'll just