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Old 03-14-2014, 11:59 AM   #41
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Since there's conflicting evidence, some things have to be wrong. I know that eyewitness accounts are notoriously unreliable, but I find this email from the New Zealand oil rig worker to be pretty credible, perhaps because it's exactly the way I would write it.

Attachment 18381

So, here are my two theories:

1. The plane has some explosion or fire that disables a lot of electronics. The fire goes out (as per the above email), and the plane makes a Sullenberger landing in the water. The plane, still in one piece, then sinks without a trace. Any subsequent pings and radar are just due to overzealous analysts.

2. The plane has some explosion or fire that disables a lot of electronics. The fire goes out (as per the above email), and the pilot tries to turn back, but eventually makes a Sullenberger landing in the water. The plane, still in one piece, then sinks without a trace.
Thanks for this TromboneA. Like you said, it is very specific, no emotion and therefore somewhat credible. Wonder what altitude and if he could really "see" the burning. As everyone else, praying for the passengers and crew. Still hoping for the best but ...many days have passed.
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Old 03-14-2014, 12:08 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
Since there's conflicting evidence, some things have to be wrong. I know that eyewitness accounts are notoriously unreliable, but I find this email from the New Zealand oil rig worker to be pretty credible, perhaps because it's exactly the way I would write it.
You didn't "authored" the letter, did you?

If the e-mail is true, I hope someone did a quick check to (dis)prove. I do wonder, if there was a fire on the plane, there could be a few more eye witnesses of its going down.
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Old 03-14-2014, 12:28 PM   #43
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from my personal experience doing work outside in remote areas, it is amazing how many people are actually out and about in the world and notice everything around them. A big plane would have a difficult time avoiding being seen by someone.

my 'WAG' is the Iranian government did not want the two asylum seeking Iranians on the plane to get away.

(Or else maybe the "The Langoliers"by Stephen King is not a fiction story after all!)

Regardless, all this mystery and speculation is taking away from the fact that a whole bunch of people are probably dead and their relatives are in a state of limbo regarding that.
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Old 03-14-2014, 01:54 PM   #44
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The distinct lack of "captured by aliens and beamed up to the mother ship" theories has me convinced that's what happened.
The Romulans locked it on their tractor beam. Extended a special tunnel which allowed air breathing inferiors to walk (voluntarily of course) up to the Romulan ship. Those who refused, were allowed to remain on board the 777 for the remaining journey, or until the fuel ran out.
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Old 03-14-2014, 01:58 PM   #45
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From everything I have heard, Flight Crew involvement seems to be the best guest now.

I am not sure I have all the current facts/theories/wild @ss guess but from what I think I know, the plane went off transponder, and then a short time later another reporting system was shut down, then for about five hours ACARS information was received. This does not sound like a plane that exploded or came apart in flight. At least not where contact was lost.

So here is my scenario: One, or both of the pilots go off the rails, turns off transponders, and all other reporting equipment he can get to. Either can't turn off ACARS, does not realize it is on, or does not know. Drops below radar coverage and heads for ? somewhere. From that point lots of possibilities. He gets cold feet and takes the plane in to brink.

What I do know, is that so many 'experts' have said so much, that the news will all say 'see, that's what we said happened!'
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Old 03-14-2014, 02:24 PM   #46
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From everything I have heard, Flight Crew involvement seems to be the best guest now.
It wouldn't be the first time a pilot has flipped out. Remember that Egyptian pilot that crashed the airliner, but different governments had different explanations (sounds familiar)
EgyptAir Flight 990 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 03-14-2014, 02:26 PM   #47
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I must question any theory that suggests a water landing that was gentle enough not to have anything break off and then have the whole thing sink without a trace. The problem is that the slides are all independent and are integrated into the doors. So I can't believe that a plane full of people would watch the water rise and nobody would deploy even a single slide.
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Old 03-14-2014, 02:39 PM   #48
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Or They were offered some irresistible honeypot.

At least one of the pilots seems to have been easily charmed. So much so that ladies were in the cockpit during takeoffs and landigs. While enjoying them, some trained operatives moved into the cookpit.

Where they would want to go, I could not venture a guess. From what I recall, the Seychelles was an enchanting place. Though it has become too commercial lately.

As good of a BS theory as I can come up with. Be funny if turned out correct.

Once again several reports claim the engine performance transponders were not turned off. Even if no performance data was transmitted to the satellite, the pings did include location and altitude data. So those who have inside info, do know where the craft was at time of the last ping. Well past transponder shutoff.
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Old 03-14-2014, 02:40 PM   #49
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I must question any theory that suggests a water landing that was gentle enough not to have anything break off and then have the whole thing sink without a trace.
+1.

Hijack -> eventual crash seems to make the most sense to me now.
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Old 03-14-2014, 03:48 PM   #50
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Early on, some news sources described one of the pilots as being so devoted to flying that he had a flight simulator in his home. He used it for practice and fun, he was described as "a pilot's pilot".

Since this is starting to sound like someone turned off transponders and the plane continued to fly have there been any reports of investigators reviewing the data on this pilot's own simulator? Wouldn't there be saved files showing what flight paths he was simulating?

This is all so mysterious. If someone stole this plane, what would you do with all the people, keep them kidnapped and hidden?
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Old 03-14-2014, 05:34 PM   #51
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Thanks for this TromboneA. Like you said, it is very specific, no emotion and therefore somewhat credible. Wonder what altitude and if he could really "see" the burning. As everyone else, praying for the passengers and crew. Still hoping for the best but ...many days have passed.
No way to know, but I agree that it doesn't look like a fake. Could very well be that the guy saw something.

But wouldn't he call a news agency if he didn't hear back from authorities. I would think any major news place would be all over that info. The combination of heading, and no lateral movement really narrows it down.

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Old 03-14-2014, 05:55 PM   #52
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So, here are my two theories:

1. The plane has some explosion or fire that disables a lot of electronics. The fire goes out (as per the above email), and the plane makes a Sullenberger landing in the water. The plane, still in one piece, then sinks without a trace. Any subsequent pings and radar are just due to overzealous analysts.

2. The plane has some explosion or fire that disables a lot of electronics. The fire goes out (as per the above email), and the pilot tries to turn back, but eventually makes a Sullenberger landing in the water. The plane, still in one piece, then sinks without a trace.
One possibility that would explain all the conflicting information was that there was a fire near Vietnam (observed by oil worker) that was put out. However, the plane filled with smoke making most everyone unconscious. The pilots turned the plane back to Malaysia and set auto pilot before blacking out. The plane continued to fly until it ran out of fuel somewhere in the Indian Ocean.

The scenarios are endless.
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Old 03-14-2014, 06:14 PM   #53
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The latest info: the plane flew for about 5 hours, changing altitude suddenly, changing direction twice.
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Old 03-14-2014, 06:21 PM   #54
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Both pilot and co-pilot have oxygen mask readily available. The first thing in an emergency with smoke in the cockpit is to put on the mask and go to 100% oxygen. While I never flew commercial, I can't believe they don't practice this on a regular basis, for sure on check rides. That does not mean they did, but I have a hard time believing smoke in the cockpit that incapacitates both crew members. If they had the prescience to make the turn, they would be on the mask. The same is true for a rapid decompression.

Again, I have not heard a real good scenario that explains all the discrepancies.

Sidebar: There are some real stupid statements being made by the talking heads!

Example: The change in altitude would be one way to quickly incapacitate everyone on board! Of course they would also have to breach the cabin because, I believe, most commercial jets are pressurized to 6,000 to 8,000 feet! It never goes higher no matter how high the jet goes. This would also require the culprit be on oxygen so they weren't incapacitated too. So the the hijacker has to get on the plane with oxygen, puncture the cabin somehow, get to the flight crew, and keep them from reacting.
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Old 03-14-2014, 06:38 PM   #55
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The latest info: the plane flew for about 5 hours, changing altitude suddenly, changing direction twice.

I suspect the NRO www.nro.gov knows much more.
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Old 03-14-2014, 06:52 PM   #56
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If the plane flew over the Malaysian Peninsula below radar range, would someone on the ground have noticed?

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Old 03-14-2014, 07:39 PM   #57
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I suspect the NRO www.nro.gov knows much more.

Shhhhh....you're not supposed to say anything about them!
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Old 03-14-2014, 07:50 PM   #58
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............
This is all so mysterious. If someone stole this plane, what would you do with all the people, keep them kidnapped and hidden?
I'm monitoring Craigslist in case they try to sell it.
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Old 03-14-2014, 07:50 PM   #59
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I would think 'below radar range' someone would certainly notice. The range or more properly the altitude a radar can track a plane down to is effected by lots of things. I have been tracked below 3,000 ft. by civilian radar, and military radars have tracked me at over 560 knots and 200 ft. I am quite sure anything I flew over knew I was there. The question is not so much how low, it is 'is the radar station looking'. My guess is no, so the aircraft drops off the radar when the transponder is turned off. Then it is skin paint only, and most radar operators are not looking for unidentified skin paint of a single aircraft. Again, military might have been.

If it did fly over higher, did the people it flew over pay any attention. The planes transponder went dark at about 1:30 in the morning. When was the last time someone noticed a plane going over at that time?
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Old 03-14-2014, 09:08 PM   #60
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If a 777 went over my house at 3,000 feet at 2 AM I would wake up, and when I heard about the disappearance I would call someone.

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