What happened to (where is) the missing Malaysian Airline?

[ERD50]

Thanks for this TromboneA. Like you said, it is very specific, no emotion and therefore somewhat credible. Wonder what altitude and if he could really "see" the burning. As everyone else, praying for the passengers and crew. Still hoping for the best but ...many days have passed.

No way to know, but I agree that it doesn't look like a fake. Could very well be that the guy saw something.

But wouldn't he call a news agency if he didn't hear back from authorities. I would think any major news place would be all over that info. The combination of heading, and no lateral movement really narrows it down.

-ERD50

 

[Bikerdude]

So, here are my two theories:

1. The plane has some explosion or fire that disables a lot of electronics. The fire goes out (as per the above email), and the plane makes a Sullenberger landing in the water. The plane, still in one piece, then sinks without a trace. Any subsequent pings and radar are just due to overzealous analysts.

2. The plane has some explosion or fire that disables a lot of electronics. The fire goes out (as per the above email), and the pilot tries to turn back, but eventually makes a Sullenberger landing in the water. The plane, still in one piece, then sinks without a trace.

One possibility that would explain all the conflicting information was that there was a fire near Vietnam (observed by oil worker) that was put out. However, the plane filled with smoke making most everyone unconscious. The pilots turned the plane back to Malaysia and set auto pilot before blacking out. The plane continued to fly until it ran out of fuel somewhere in the Indian Ocean.

The scenarios are endless.

 

[robnplunder]

The latest info: the plane flew for about 5 hours, changing altitude suddenly, changing direction twice.

 

[Rustic23]

Both pilot and co-pilot have oxygen mask readily available. The first thing in an emergency with smoke in the cockpit is to put on the mask and go to 100% oxygen. While I never flew commercial, I can't believe they don't practice this on a regular basis, for sure on check rides. That does not mean they did, but I have a hard time believing smoke in the cockpit that incapacitates both crew members. If they had the prescience to make the turn, they would be on the mask. The same is true for a rapid decompression.

Again, I have not heard a real good scenario that explains all the discrepancies.

Sidebar: There are some real stupid statements being made by the talking heads!

Example: The change in altitude would be one way to quickly incapacitate everyone on board! Of course they would also have to breach the cabin because, I believe, most commercial jets are pressurized to 6,000 to 8,000 feet! It never goes higher no matter how high the jet goes. This would also require the culprit be on oxygen so they weren't incapacitated too. So the the hijacker has to get on the plane with oxygen, puncture the cabin somehow, get to the flight crew, and keep them from reacting.

 

[TOOLMAN]

The latest info: the plane flew for about 5 hours, changing altitude suddenly, changing direction twice.

I suspect the NRO www.nro.gov knows much more.

 

[TromboneAl]

If the plane flew over the Malaysian Peninsula below radar range, would someone on the ground have noticed?

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[Dash man]

I suspect the NRO www.nro.gov knows much more.

Shhhhh....you're not supposed to say anything about them!

 

[travelover]

............
This is all so mysterious. If someone stole this plane, what would you do with all the people, keep them kidnapped and hidden?

I'm monitoring Craigslist in case they try to sell it.

 

[Rustic23]

I would think 'below radar range' someone would certainly notice. The range or more properly the altitude a radar can track a plane down to is effected by lots of things. I have been tracked below 3,000 ft. by civilian radar, and military radars have tracked me at over 560 knots and 200 ft. I am quite sure anything I flew over knew I was there. The question is not so much how low, it is 'is the radar station looking'. My guess is no, so the aircraft drops off the radar when the transponder is turned off. Then it is skin paint only, and most radar operators are not looking for unidentified skin paint of a single aircraft. Again, military might have been.

If it did fly over higher, did the people it flew over pay any attention. The planes transponder went dark at about 1:30 in the morning. When was the last time someone noticed a plane going over at that time?

 

[TromboneAl]

If a 777 went over my house at 3,000 feet at 2 AM I would wake up, and when I heard about the disappearance I would call someone.

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[TromboneAl]

Some people say that the plane was commandeered and flown west below radar. My point is that if true, someone would notice.

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[Rustic23]

Al, I agree, that was kind of the case I was trying to make, however, 'below radar' is in the eye of the beholder. Example, for me it would be below 200 ft., to a center radar operator, it may be 10,000 ft. or higher. It could also be that when people i.e. talking heads, say below radar range they really mean that there was 'lost radar contact'. In most cases, when the transponder is turned off, center you looses radar contact. Not sure of this point, but I think center type radar normally is set to read transponder codes and not skin paint. Above 18,000 ft all aircraft have to be on an IFR (instrument flight plan) and be followed by center. There is no need to skin paint as there are not suppose to be any other aircraft up there, and all aircraft on IFR have to have a transponder.

I guess my point is that the news media is tossing around this 'below radar range' like it is some certain altitude. While I have not seen a finale altitude readouts, the lowest altitude I heard them talk about is 23,000 ft, and I would certainly not hear a plane go over at that altitude.

 

[ERD50]

If a 777 went over my house at 3,000 feet at 2 AM I would wake up, and when I heard about the disappearance I would call someone.

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I don't think I would. If I did the math right, a 777 at 3,000 ft straight above would look about 2" long at arms length. I've seen them that close, and they are not that loud.

And if you are in a flight path, you wouldn't give it a second thought.


-ERD50


Sent from the laptop on my desk using Chromium Browser

 

[samclem]

Both pilot and co-pilot have oxygen mask readily available. The first thing in an emergency with smoke in the cockpit is to put on the mask and go to 100% oxygen.

And even at 35K ft, a person has 30-60 seconds of useful consciousness to get the quick-don mask on his face (somewhat less than that if it is a rapid decompression, but it only takes 3-5 seconds to get the mask on).

One point made earlier that bears repeating: The theoretical detection/tracking capability of modern military early warning/target tracking radars is one thing. The ability to notice a single target with no other heads-up and when there's no higher state of military readiness is quite another. Many/most of the long-range military radars aren't even operating most of the time, the operators aren't being especially attentive, they don't have the settings optimized to detect a target in ground clutter, etc.

This is a strange case.

 

[easysurfer]

The thinking now is that perhaps some pirates took the plane and maybe even landed somewhere. After all, the plane in water was just an assumed theory.

 

[Bikerdude]

Lost airliner was diverted deliberately: Malaysian PM

"Search operations by navies and aircraft from more than a dozen nations were immediately called off in the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea to the east of Malaysia, where the plane dropped off civilian air traffic control screens at 1:22 a.m. last Saturday (1722 GMT on Friday)."

 

[karluk]

Lost airliner was diverted deliberately: Malaysian PM

"Search operations by navies and aircraft from more than a dozen nations were immediately called off in the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea to the east of Malaysia, where the plane dropped off civilian air traffic control screens at 1:22 a.m. last Saturday (1722 GMT on Friday)."

From the article:

Najib said the plane's final communication with satellites placed it somewhere in one of two corridors: a northern arc stretching from northern Thailand to the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, or a southern one stretching from Indonesia to the vast southern Indian Ocean.

Does anyone with an aviation background know what this means? It is extremely tempting to infer that the authorities think they have a good handle on the plane's longitude at the point of last contact, but don't have a clue as to the latitude, except for the broad limit mandated by the fact that the plane couldn't fly farther than its fuel supply would take it. That would mean that it could have been anywhere between Kazakhstan in the north and somewhere near the island of Mauritius in the south.

How they estimated longitude is a mystery, but a reasonable guess might be that the pings from the plane were picked up by the closest satellite, and they could have figured out the location of the satellite at the time of the last contact.

 

[Bikerdude]

From the article:

Does anyone with an aviation background know what this means? It is extremely tempting to infer that the authorities think they have a good handle on the plane's longitude at the point of last contact, but don't have a clue as to the latitude, except for the broad limit mandated by the fact that the plane couldn't fly farther than its fuel supply would take it. That would mean that it could have been anywhere between Kazakhstan in the north and somewhere near the island of Mauritius in the south.

How they estimated longitude is a mystery, but a reasonable guess might be that the pings from the plane were picked up by the closest satellite, and they could have figured out the location of the satellite at the time of the last contact.

That's exactly how it was explained on NBC news tonight. Some enterprising people determined they could measure the planes distance from the satellite and therefor have the longitude.

 

[TromboneAl]

If a 777 went over my house at 3,000 feet at 2 AM I would wake up, and when I heard about the disappearance I would call someone.

I don't think I would. If I did the math right, a 777 at 3,000 ft straight above would look about 2" long at arms length. I've seen them that close, and they are not that loud.

And if you are in a flight path, you wouldn't give it a second thought.

Yes, I was kind of assuming that the path over the peninsula is not a normal flight path. That's why I would wake up. We never have any jets go over our house within audible range, so that new noise would wake me up.

 

[TromboneAl]

I see the press, at least, as making a lot of assumptions that aren't valid. Hopefully, the authorities are thinking more rationally and have more information.

And I admit, I'm perhaps too wedded to my theory based on my New Zealand oil rig buddy. Why hasn't the press said "We discount that observation because..." And why isn't that guy on all the morning talk shows at this point?

But here's an example of some typical press assumptions that I don't agree with:

Paraphrasing: The second reporting system was shut off 12 minutes after the first, indicating that it was not a catastrophic event, but instead an intentional act.

But I have no problem postulating a small fire that spread, causing one system to fail, and then later, another system.

In the same way, I have no problem with a gradually failing computer system which could cause the plane to change course multiple times. Sure, "evidence is consistent with someone acting deliberately from inside the plane," but that doesn't mean that that's what happened.

Remember the plane, that, in 1999, was flying from Orlando to Dallas? It depressurized, the pilots died, and it made a right turn and ended up in South Dakota.

And some news stations act as if it's suspicious that one of the pilots had a flight simulator at home, suggesting that he used it to plan this commandeering. Would you really need a flight simulator to plan something like this?

So I still like my theory: Fire in the cockpit, pilots die, systems gradually fail, passengers die, plane flies around aimlessly, crashes in water, sinks. Perhaps all the pieces didn't sink, but we just haven't found anything yet.

And I like this photo on abcnews.com:



If that's how they're searching, with a guy looking intently out a tiny window with binoculars, they're never going to find anything. When I see that picture, I imagine the pilot calling back, "Find anything yet, Bob?"

Sorry for joke -- I know it's a tragedy for the families.

 

[Alan]

From the article:

Does anyone with an aviation background know what this means? It is extremely tempting to infer that the authorities think they have a good handle on the plane's longitude at the point of last contact, but don't have a clue as to the latitude, except for the broad limit mandated by the fact that the plane couldn't fly farther than its fuel supply would take it. That would mean that it could have been anywhere between Kazakhstan in the north and somewhere near the island of Mauritius in the south.

How they estimated longitude is a mystery, but a reasonable guess might be that the pings from the plane were picked up by the closest satellite, and they could have figured out the location of the satellite at the time of the last contact.

Apparently the aircraft engines periodically transmit bursts of diagnostic data which can be picked up by satellites and passed on to the manufacturer (Rolls Royce?).

If a satellite picks up a transmission it will know the exact time it received the signal and knowing the time means knowing the longitude. One of the early X prizes was from the UK to the first person to produce an extremely accurate clock that was sea worthy so that ships at sea could calculate exactly where they were by measuring the time relative to Greenwich. (Latitude can be calculated from the star positions)

 

[Alan]

Although it took 2 years to locate the Air France plane that went missing in the south Atlantic, it was men with binoculars that first spotted wreckage floating on the surface of the ocean a few days after it went missing that convinced authorities that it had crashed into the ocean.

 

[MooreBonds]

But here's an example of some typical press assumptions that I don't agree with:

Paraphrasing: The second reporting system was shut off 12 minutes after the first, indicating that it was not a catastrophic event, but instead an intentional act.

But I have no problem postulating a small fire that spread, causing one system to fail, and then later, another system.

Current reports indicate that the left turn was a pre-programmed path. Either the computer went haywire and somehow over-wrote the previously programmed flight path with this new flight path in-flight...or (the far more likely scenario) someone else manually input this.

View attachment 18411

If that's how they're searching, with a guy looking intently out a tiny window with binoculars, they're never going to find anything. When I see that picture, I imagine the pilot calling back, "Find anything yet, Bob?"

Sorry for joke -- I know it's a tragedy for the families.

I realize it may look 'odd'...but honestly, how do you expect them to be searching over an area that could potentially be as large as 10,000,000 square miles in an ocean? They don't have planes with 12ft tall side windows to look out of. The pilots' windows don't have the same vantage point as the passenger's windows (plus the pilots are watching the flight controls). Do you expect them to drag people with 200ft towlines out the back of the plane, dangling at 20,000 ft with an air tank?

Helicopters are obviously better - but you can't fly up at 20,000 ft with them, and they're just a tad slower than airplanes.

Even if you had 20 mile visibility out from each side of the plane at 20,000 ft, flying at 400mph, that's only 16,000 sq miles you can cover per hour, per plane. With 10,000,000 sq miles, that's 625 hours with one plane. Or even 62 hours with 100 planes working non-stop. And that assumes no cloud cover or anything else limiting your visibility to less than 20 miles.

And even if there are things floating in the ocean, after 1 week+, odds are there would be a pretty good dispersal by now of whatever's left floating on the surface.

 

[W2R]

Some of the news media continue to suggest pilot suicide but that makes no sense to me. In my mind, simple pilot suicide is eliminated as a possibility because if the pilot was going to commit suicide, and had no other nefarious terrorist plans, then why would he bother to turn off the transponders and hide his position? It's not like anybody could stop him.

My guess is that the pilot was up to no good.

 

[karluk]

One of the early X prizes was from the UK to the first person to produce an extremely accurate clock that was sea worthy so that ships at sea could calculate exactly where they were by measuring the time relative to Greenwich.

I am extremely familiar with the story of John Harrison's invention of the chronometer, although I had never heard of him until visiting the Royal Observatory in Greenwich. My whole family was extremely impressed with his painstaking efforts over many decades to refine and improve on his devices until finally achieving the required accuracy - with a design that looks like a slightly oversized pocket watch. Harrison strikes me as the British embodiment of Edison's famous quote about genius being 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. DS used him on his college admissions essay as his ideal of how to succeed in life.