What happened to (where is) the missing Malaysian Airline?

[Rustic23]

My latest theory. If reports of the route around Indonesia are right, then it looks like aircrew, I would venture the copilot, was in control. Whoever was headed for Perth. They failed to account for the increased fuel requirement of skirting Indonesia and ditched the aircraft. As it was such a rookie mistake, that is why I suspect the copilot. It could have been an intruders, but the lack of radio chatter or emergency squawk leads me to discount that.

So there is my today's speculation, and you did not have to watch CNN commercials to get it.

 

[ERD50]

I also would have thought they'd just have a computer filtering out all by the 37.5 KHz, and beeping when it detected that, but I can see that the heterodyning has advantages, such as letting the human ear make the decisions. I wonder if what we're hearing in this video is heterodyned (using a Dukane Tester):

What black box 'pings' really sound like – Anderson Cooper 360 - CNN.com Blogs

As for the signal being at 33 KHz instead of 37.5 kHz, perhaps they are figuring that as the battery voltage goes down, the frequency could change. I know that that is often not how things work, but perhaps when voltage is low, all bets are off. Easily tested.

In any case, although the members of the media have the intelligence of 12-year-olds when it comes to this stuff, we can be pretty confident that the submarine people, and the people on these ships know what they are doing. They've been highly motivated to do this audio analysis stuff for decades.

We just need a news service for engineer types.

Those receivers do appear to be hetrodyne circuits, simply 'mixing' the higher frequency down to a lower one.

That 33Khz signal sure seems awful far (12%) from the spec of 37.5KHz +/- 1% from the spec sheet I linked earlier. I don't think a low battery condition would affect frequency much, but maybe another engineer could chime in on this. It sounds like they use a simple R/C/L resonant circuit for the oscillator, and those components have near zero parameter changes over the voltages that would be used. Possibly the amplifier impedance changes with voltage, and that might 'pull' on the resonant circuit, but I'm thinking that would be a very minor effect (and accounted for in the +/- 1% spec).

Bottom line, I think 33KHz is suspicious.

HAh- real-time update - Just as I posted, they were interviewing a guy on the radio that said he contacted the company, and they said theses frequencies can 'wobble' as the battery dies. But I think that 33Khz signal was reported a while ago, when the battery should have still been good. I wonder how good the maintenance checks are? If they are lax, no one would know until something like this happens.

-ERD50

 

[robnplunder]

The first reports of the signals were around that 30 day battery life timeline. So, the signal may started to wobble already. For lack of better explanation, I think it's plausible. I will take CNN's (their guests) word for it.

In the last 24 hours, they reported two more signal finding although weaker, and for shorter durations. I think they now have enough data to narrow down the haystack area.

 

[samclem]

We just need a news service for engineer types.

For this type of thing, the specialized print media still rules. But, we have to wait, and until then, the broadcasters will fill the void.

 

[TromboneAl]

Bottom line, I think 33KHz is suspicious.

This is a case where I'd say that the experts know the answer. The reporters might be getting it wrong, but I'm sure that the sonar guys will know if a 33 KHz signal is kosher.

In any case, it would only take minutes to take some pingers drop the voltage, and see what happens to the frequency. Might be a handy way of estimating the remaining life in the 370 pingers.

 

[ERD50]

This is a case where I'd say that the experts know the answer. The reporters might be getting it wrong, but I'm sure that the sonar guys will know if a 33 KHz signal is kosher.

In any case, it would only take minutes to take some pingers drop the voltage, and see what happens to the frequency. Might be a handy way of estimating the remaining life in the 370 pingers.

Agreed, it is certainly 'knowable' by the right people, running the right experiments, calculations, computer simulations, etc.

-ERD50

 

[Fermion]

Now another missing Malaysian flight. Likely shot down though.

 

[TrvlBug]

Now another missing Malaysian flight. Likely shot down though.

Malasia Airlines has got to be the unluckiest airline in the world. I can't imagine what family of those on that flight are going through.

 

[robnplunder]

Two in less than 6 months? What is going on?

 

[TromboneAl]

I don't see the Malaysian airlines link as significant, assuming it was shot down.

But it does make me realize, as Bob Schieffer said on the news last night, what a remarkable amount of turmoil there is in the world today. Crimea, Israel, ISIS, Egypt, Iran, North Korea, and Afghanistan.

 

[Fermion]

I don't see the Malaysian airlines link as significant, assuming it was shot down.

But it does make me realize, as Bob Schieffer said on the news last night, what a remarkable amount of turmoil there is in the world today. Crimea, Israel, ISIS, Egypt, Iran, North Korea, and Afghanistan.

Probably can toss China and Vietnam in there somewhere as they have been squabbling over territorial waters.

 

[robnplunder]

Probably can toss China and Vietnam in there somewhere as they have been squabbling over territorial waters.

China has territory squabbles with just about every adjacent countries big and small.

Given a choice, should/would one pick Malaysian plane to fly or go with another airline even if it costs more. Bad break for Malaysian airline but something for would be passengers to think about.

 

[check6]

Given a choice, should/would one pick Malaysian plane to fly or go with another airline even if it costs more. Bad break for Malaysian airline but something for would be passengers to think about.

There are a handful that you would never catch me on.

 

[easysurfer]

The news tonight said it only took about 30 seconds from from missile launch to striking the plane. Pretty crazy. The plane was up at 33,000 ft.

 

[Lancelot]

I'm watching Australian TV (ABC) and their commentators are pointing at a Russian made BUK missile launcher. There are audio clips of pro Russian rebels talking "Were there any weapons on board?, Civilians?"

Reports of 150 Dutch on board?

 

[Fermion]

This one is going to be pretty hard to deny if the phone conversation can be proved (plus the tweet from the rebels about shooting down a transport plan then deleting the tweet).

In the phone conversation the rebels essentially say "I think we shot down a passenger plane".

 

[samclem]

There's little doubt the rebels did it. The questions are:
-- Did they use a system supplied by Russia, or one seized from Ukrainian forces?
-- Will Russia be seen as responsible for this, and maybe focus some world attention on their role in the troubles there, or will the airlines be blamed for overflying this area? It was not among the areas the FAA warned airlines to avoid, and there was no ICAO warning to avoid this area, either.

There is one side that "wins" if Ukrainian transportation and commerce is made more difficult (due to higher insurance rates, airlines deciding to drop Kiev from their schedules, etc). If this happens, it won't matter if it was a claimed "mistake", carelessness, or deliberate--they will have succeeded in adding pressure to the Ukrainian government to make concessions. I don't think we will be moving forward if we allow irresponsible behavior to be rewarded.

 

[robnplunder]

Reports of 150 Dutch on board?

And only 40 or so Malaysians. Dozen countries citizens were in the plane. Not a good move for the separatists.

 

[Lancelot]

@Samclem, the missile system was a Russian/Soviet built BUK, 1980's vintage surface to air missile system, according to ABC (Australian)

 

[pb4uski]

And only 40 or so Malaysians. Dozen countries citizens were in the plane. Not a good move for the separatists.

With any luck Putin will use this unfortunate incident as an excuse to back away from these separatist clowns and withdraw from the jam he has put himself in and get back into the West's good graces and get the sanctions lifted. I doubt it though. Just wishful thinking on my part I guess.

 

[Fermion]

With any luck Putin will use this unfortunate incident as an excuse to back away from these separatist clowns and withdraw from the jam he has put himself in and get back into the West's good graces and get the sanctions lifted. I doubt it though. Just wishful thinking on my part I guess.

More likely Putin will post an image of himself carrying four "survivors" from the crash to rescue vehicles. That is the type of person he is.

 

[aja8888]

More likely Putin will post an image of himself carrying four "survivors" from the crash to rescue vehicles. That is the type of person he is.

And then have them "detained" for not having passed through immigration properly.

 

[eytonxav]

Looks like Putin and separatists will blame Ukraine; and so it goes.

 

[easysurfer]

Looks like Putin and separatists will blame Ukraine; and so it goes.

Give it a week or two, I won't be suprised if Putin will try to blame the USA.

 

[robnplunder]

Looks like Putin and separatists will blame Ukraine; and so it goes.

Putin already has blamed Ukraine for all intents and purposes.

When I originally posted thread, I've never thought ...

1) the plane would not be found,
2) the thread is resurrected for another Malaysian plane disaster.

What is the odd of 1) & 2) happening to a same airline in 4 month period? Billion to 1? It never happened before so the odd of this happening is 1 to an astronomical number.