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Wilkes Land impact
Old 06-04-2006, 09:20 AM   #1
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Wilkes Land impact

Does FireCalc take into consideration an event like the Wilkes Land impact?* How are other forum members allowing for such an eventuallity in their portfolios?

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Re: Wilkes Land impact
Old 06-04-2006, 09:29 AM   #2
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Re: Wilkes Land impact

Originally Posted by Non sequitur
Does FireCalc take into consideration an event like the Wilkes Land impact?
No, I don't believe it does, since no catastrophy of that magnitude occurred during the 130 years included in FIRECalc. That would be one of the situations that could probably force you to have to return to w*rk, at least part time.

"This Wilkes Land [meteor] impact is much bigger than the impact that killed the dinosaurs, and probably would have caused catastrophic damage at the time," said Ralph von Frese, a professor of geological sciences at Ohio State University.

Numbers is hard.

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Re: Wilkes Land impact
Old 06-04-2006, 09:50 AM   #3
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Re: Wilkes Land impact

Actually I think Scott Burns did take that sort of thing into account. I don't have a link to the aticle but some of the old timers here might remember it. I THINK it's called Eat Drink and be merry

The upshot of it is, if you want to work it into a FIRECalc scenario is: Run the Monte Carlo simulator. Set the survival rate at 80%. You will find it is almost exactly the same as the 100% survival number of the "normal" Firecalc.

Therefor it takes into account the financial possibilities and also: wars, natural disasters, your own lousy luck like getting cancer at age 45, being on the next plane to be hijacked, and on and on, meteor strike.

Like they say... it's not just about "The money"
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Re: Wilkes Land impact
Old 06-04-2006, 10:44 AM   #4
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Re: Wilkes Land impact


I believe Bernstein likes to check in on Angus Maddison from time to time and his research data.

heh heh heh heh - 'rich as an Argentine', the hot Egyptian stock market, et al.
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