2019 YTD Investment Performance Thread

[NW-Bound]

Perhaps not that many buy and hold investors with 60/40 AA, with all the reported 8%+ returns.

Some have a higher stock AA than 60%. And they stepped up to buy at the 2018 year-end bottom. Or they loaded up on the stocks that got dumped the most, and have since rebounded strongest.

Only time will tell if these gains will not evaporate in a week, or a month.

 

[robnplunder]

But let's not get too excited. IIRC, 2018 started out with a similar run-up in January.

We are optimistic lot and have short memory.

 

[Rickt]

+5.79%
72/23/5 (Stock/Bond/Cash)
Glad I stayed invested thru the last quarter's correction.

 

[Andre1969]

I don't usually check my 1 month returns, but I did and got 7.94% too! Maybe we are soul brothers?

Anyway, Dec 31 was so awful almost any portfolio should look good by comparison..

Wow, small world! Anyway, hopefully it's onward and upward from here!

Also, not to obsess over it, but thanks to a slight upward tick yesterday, I'm now at 8.16%. All I need is a slight hiccup, in the right direction, to get me to 8.52%, and that would make 2019 my third best year, on a strictly dollar basis (rather than rate of return).

It's kinda cool to think that, theoretically, over the course of just the first month and a few extra days, 2019 could be my third best year, even if the year was flat for the remaining 10+ months. Although, seeing the market stay flat for 10+ months, can be its own form of aggravation. Funny, how the human mind can work.

 

[NW-Bound]

Wow, small world! Anyway, hopefully it's onward and upward from here!

Also, not to obsess over it, but thanks to a slight upward tick yesterday, I'm now at 8.16%. All I need is a slight hiccup, in the right direction, to get me to 8.52%, and that would make 2019 my third best year, on a strictly dollar basis (rather than rate of return).

It's kinda cool to think that, theoretically, over the course of just the first month and a few extra days, 2019 could be my third best year, even if the year was flat for the remaining 10+ months. Although, seeing the market stay flat for 10+ months, can be its own form of aggravation. Funny, how the human mind can work.

I did also wish that the market would stay flat after the late summer of 2018.

 

[Spanky]

Perhaps not that many buy and hold investors with 60/40 AA, with all the reported 8%+ returns.

Seems that those posted that kind of return is 100% equity. Good luck! They won't be posting their return if the market takes a 50% drop.

 

[audreyh1]

Up around 5% YTD in our taxable retirement fund (50/50), well more than making up for our Jan annual income withdrawal.

 

[steelyman]

Quicken tells me that small and mid-cap funds helped boost performance over expected in January. I recall they did well early in 2018 but dragged things down later on.

I follow the VTHRX high-level (stock/bond) allocation, currently about 70/30 but I overweight the extended market in specific fund choices.

 

[dixonge]

Seems that those posted that kind of return is 100% equity. Good luck! They won't be posting their return if the market takes a 50% drop.

It's perfectly safe when your nest egg is 'extra' on top of well-run fully funded pensions...

 

[gstillson]

It's perfectly safe when your nest egg is 'extra' on top of well-run fully funded pensions...

Or for those without pensions, it is also perfectly safe if your nest egg is $10,000,000 such that a 50% drop still leaves you with a bit of coin.

 

[Dtail]

It's perfectly safe when your nest egg is 'extra' on top of well-run fully funded pensions...

True but you are also living in Ajijic IIRC. Tougher to do for the general poster here w/o spending some investment assets.

 

[mickeyd]

Vanguard indicates that January 2019 was the best January in 30 years. Keep this in mind.

 

[NW-Bound]

Seems that those posted that kind of return is 100% equity. Good luck! They won't be posting their return if the market takes a 50% drop.

Well, only 65-70% equity here, and I got 9.45% for Jan 2019. I am diversified, but no indexer.

But as described in the same earlier post, I lost -10.85% for 2018, so this was to make up for that.

 

[dixonge]

True but you are also living in Ajijic IIRC. Tougher to do for the general poster here w/o spending some investment assets.

Living in Mexico made it easier to retire early on just one pension, but living here does not affect AA. We could move back to the States in five years and I would still keep all nest egg money in 100% index funds. As that number grows, I might possibly adjust that %.

 

[Spanky]

Well, only 65-70% equity here, and I got 9.45% for Jan 2019. I am diversified, but no indexer.

But as described in the same earlier post, I lost -10.85% for 2018, so this was to make up for that.

Our portfolio was down 3% last year and up 5% in January 2019. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am a diehard market timer and stock picker, hence like to keep quite a bit of cash in case the market crashes so I can go "all in". But when that happened, I could not do it, though always bought some.

With my low WR, I could live on the meager 2% dividend yield of the S&P if I go 100% S&P stock or total market, supplemented by SS if necessary instead of waiting till 70. I may even do better financially than I have been.

But then, I do not get to watch the market goes up/down and try to play contrarian to buy low/sell high.

 

[street]

^ I like your description of yourself, as a contrarian. I feel of myself as one at times also, after learning what people do in a majority ruling in the financial world. LOL

In the end I have done it my way, unorthodox way but achieved retiring early and all a man could ever want. Always strange to me that some beleive there is always a right and it is the only way to get there. It is more fun being a maverick and succeeding.

 

[NW-Bound]

The problem is when the whole world runs around screaming or elated in cheers, and you don't share the same feeling, you wonder if there's something wrong with you, that you don't know something they know.

There's definitely some danger in being out-of-tune with the world, and I am enough of an eccentric in other aspects of life already.

 

[street]

True! There is always risk and if we all done it the same way, they could call us sheep. LOL

 

[RobbieB]

Up 8.3%, 1-31-19

 

[Scratchy]

Seems that those posted that kind of return is 100% equity. Good luck! They won't be posting their return if the market takes a 50% drop.

They will, but they will wait until the month after the market rises after which they will post their previous months returns.

I think it is important to bear in mind when reading this forum that people have a strong bias toward remembering and posting their successes. Think about how often you read about people describing how they exited the market just before a drop (usually the story begins with "through sheer luck...." because they also don't want to be branded a market timer). Or how people jumped into equities before a market rise. Or how so many post have returns higher than their stated AA would indicate. It is kind of a "Facebook" phenomenon where the posts tend to exaggerate the positive.

If you have average or (unheard of) below average returns you are not alone!

 

[Dtail]

They will, but they will wait until the month after the market rises after which they will post their previous months returns.

I think it is important to bear in mind when reading this forum that people have a strong bias toward remembering and posting their successes. Think about how often you read about people describing how they exited the market just before a drop (usually the story begins with "through sheer luck...." because they also don't want to be branded a market timer). Or how people jumped into equities before a market rise. Or how so many post have returns higher than their stated AA would indicate. It is kind of a "Facebook" phenomenon where the posts tend to exaggerate the positive.

If you have average or (unheard of) below average returns you are not alone!

Indeed.
Indirectly that was my reference in post #49.

 

[Scratchy]

Indeed.
Indirectly that was my reference in post #49.

Your post was what got me thinking about this more.

Another indication of how entrenched this reporting bias is: From reading this (or any other finance) forum, it would be hard not to conclude that picking stocks is a sure way to riches. The reports of coming out a big winner by buying individual stocks outnumber losing picks by at least 20:1.

 

[sengsational]

If you want a dose of reality, look at a market simulation game like this. There are way more people below the buy and hold indexer than above. And two of the people above are only there because a fault in the simulation gave them lots of extra money.


There was a thread about a guy who was going to make tons of money trading on Robin Hood, and post results continuously. Haven't seen that thread in a long time.


I've know two people personally who thought they had it figured out, one even quit his job. Both stories are the same...everything went really great, made a lot of money, but then that one horrible trade just knocked them down. So they clawed their way back, only to get smacked again. Neither trade like that any more...both wage slaves again.


There are a lot of people on this thread that I think are reporting accurately. If I skip a month, there's one that's close enough to my results that I don't need to calculate mine, hehe!

 

[Scratchy]

If you want a dose of reality, look at a market simulation game like this. There are way more people below the buy and hold indexer than above. And two of the people above are only there because a fault in the simulation gave them lots of extra money.


There was a thread about a guy who was going to make tons of money trading on Robin Hood, and post results continuously. Haven't seen that thread in a long time.


I've know two people personally who thought they had it figured out, one even quit his job. Both stories are the same...everything went really great, made a lot of money, but then that one horrible trade just knocked them down. So they clawed their way back, only to get smacked again. Neither trade like that any more...both wage slaves again.


There are a lot of people on this thread that I think are reporting accurately. If I skip a month, there's one that's close enough to my results that I don't need to calculate mine, hehe!

Thanks for the link to that simulation game. I was not savvy enough to be able to see the results but I'm not surprised by what you describe the results are.

I also believe that people are reporting accurately on this thread, but I think the people who are reporting are a very skewed sample-we are not hearing from many of the people who got hurt by market timing or picking stocks. It's completely understandable but I think for the boring index fund investor who does not market time it's important to bear this in mind and not get thrown off by the gains and success stories you read here.

I see a lot of people working to an age far older than they would like or should be necessary given their income. I suspect a lot of them did very poorly with their investments. We don't hear many of their stories but if we only knew I think it would help the index fund investor feel much more comfortable that they are not missing out.