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Old 07-22-2013, 10:05 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by FinancialDave View Post
Sure there may be data to support it, but does that make it true - NO!
I'm really looking for data that would support (or refute) WhichRoger's hypothesis in a statistical sense. It would be simple to do something like Schiller's PE10 analysis except instead of 10 year future returns, one looked at 10 year volatility.


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No one here can predict the future and just because an investment has had a certain Standard Deviation or risk in the past tells you nothing for certain about the future.
There's a huge gap between "certain" and "having totally no clue" that you can drive a truck through with statistical models.
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Old 07-22-2013, 10:32 PM   #22
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Not easy to say looking at the giant W on the 20 year S&P chart.
S&P 500 Index (1960 - Present Weekly) - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com


How about shifting your reference to 30 years if you want to cherry pick?
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Old 07-23-2013, 05:29 AM   #23
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S&P 500 Index (1960 - Present Weekly) - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com


How about shifting your reference to 30 years if you want to cherry pick?

Not cherry picking. How about the DOW 1900 - 2013?
Dow Jones Industrial Average (1900 - Present Monthly) - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com
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Old 07-23-2013, 08:22 PM   #24
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5% would be an awesome real return. I am planning for 3% real return personally. At the end of the day, all we can do is save as much as possible and let the chips fall where they may.
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