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Old 01-21-2016, 11:38 AM   #41
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"Don't do something, just stand there........"
Not "Buy, buy, buy"?
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Old 01-21-2016, 03:48 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Not "Buy, buy, buy"?
Quote by warren buffett: “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains ...”


It's just a drizzle right now though, so just adjust the rain water collector, check the storm drains, and see how many buckets you have in the back.

And ignore the weather forecast
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Old 01-21-2016, 03:58 PM   #43
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Here's the entire quote:

“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble” - Warren Buffett

I don't know if this has been authenticated, but it does sound like something Buffett would say. Bogle would not say something like that.

Anyway, it's a good point to watch Buffett to see when he says "Buy, buy, buy". So far I think he stays mum. In 2008-2009, I bought but did not go "all in". Maybe I will get another chance?
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Old 01-21-2016, 04:17 PM   #44
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misshathaway, I'm surprised at my own response as well even though it is the reverse of yours. Honestly I thought I would be more worried than I am because I remember all the angst expressed by retirees on the forum back in 2008-2009. 2008-2009 happened mostly while I was still working, so I had to figure out whether or not to go through with my long time plan of retiring in November of 2009 (I did).

But now, I am retired and there is nothing to decide. So, no worries. If necessary I will cut back on my spending, but I don't even see that as necessary for quite some time if ever. Meanwhile, "Laissez les bons temps rouler" as we say down here.
So far at least, this is not even 2008's
baby sister. Amounts matter.

Ha
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Old 01-21-2016, 04:40 PM   #45
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So far at least, this is not even 2008's
baby sister. Amounts matter.

Ha
Good point. Some of us forget or never had the perspective. I'll go back to this chart which I created specifically to give me that perspective. I'm like many others, getting emotional at times and missing the bigger picture.

See the 1987 crash (black line drop). That was about 30%. Now look at the 2008 drop (orange line drop). I haven't shown the blue line yet for January but so far it would just look like a small drop about equivalent to the drop in that Aug-Sept 2015 wiggle towards the end of the blue line.

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Old 01-21-2016, 04:55 PM   #46
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I am sad about this year. I am down 200K from my high, some of it I spent but down 100K this year on investments. Two full years retired now and it is a little scary but I know it will come back. I have enough cash to last 6 months or more so not really desperate to sell low but it feels really bad. I for a few seconds thought about looking for a job but remembered I don't want to work.
Sometimes I simply look at my balance and think how many would think they won the lottery if they had as much I as I have left and try to be happy. I can lose another 50% and still be fine.

I feel the same way. My husband said yesterday that most people don't have $3M. I pointed out that we no longer do. He was genuinely surprised. He doesn't look at our portfolio despite my efforts.

Given I've been in "semi-ER" for a year, as my group can't find doctors or nurse practitioners to replace those who left, especially me, I am in a "better" position than some. I can work as much or as little as I choose, or work not at all.

I wanted to stop in March, but my cash position is not as good as I'd like it to be. So, I've decided to work a few days per month--enough to avoid having to sell during this year, longer than I'd planned to do.

At $500-800/day, it's hard to say no.


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Old 01-21-2016, 04:58 PM   #47
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We are already cutting back. Drinking an 8 dollar bottle of wine tonight instead of a 12 dollar bottle. Sacrifices must be made
I bet it's just as good.
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Old 01-21-2016, 05:00 PM   #48
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At $500-800/day, it's hard to say no.
Totally agreed.
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Old 01-21-2016, 07:09 PM   #49
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My wife does not drink. So she thinks that any money beyond a 2-buck chuck ($2.99 where I am) is wasted.



I bought some $15 bottles at Bevmo, but they had this deal of 5c for the 2nd bottle. When drinking them, I told myself that I was drinking a $15 bottle, not a $7.5 bottle. What do you think?

My GF is a bit too label conscious. I need her to think like you do!


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Old 01-21-2016, 07:30 PM   #50
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I am sad about this year. I am down 200K from my high, some of it I spent but down 100K this year on investments. Two full years retired now and it is a little scary but I know it will come back. I have enough cash to last 6 months or more so not really desperate to sell low but it feels really bad. I for a few seconds thought about looking for a job but remembered I don't want to work.
Sometimes I simply look at my balance and think how many would think they won the lottery if they had as much I as I have left and try to be happy. I can lose another 50% and still be fine.
I left gainful employment about 6 months ago and I can appreciate your feelings. I feel almost too nonchalant about my paper losses but I have a good buffer of CDs to carry me through for awhile. I'm calling it a bucket strategy which I know creates a drag on my returns but it is certainly effective in terms of relieving me of stress (which is the main reason I ER'd when I did). I still need to sort out the mechanics of re-filling the buckets which is another pitfall of this strategy but I am confident that I will figure it out.
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Old 01-21-2016, 08:08 PM   #51
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My GF is a bit too label conscious. I need her to think like you do!
You probably do not have a Bevmo close to you. Else, their deal of 5c-for-the-2nd-bottle-of-the-same-label will allow you to tell your GF with a straight face that the bottle you are pouring from is $20 or more.

I am only a couple of miles from both Bevmo and Total Wine, and between the two I can always find some good deal. Yes, if I moved permanently to the boondocks as I once entertained the idea, I would really miss the amenities of the suburb of a metropolitan area,
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Old 01-21-2016, 08:21 PM   #52
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You probably do not have a Bevmo close to you. Else, their deal of 5c-for-the-2nd-bottle-of-the-same-label will allow you to tell your GF with a straight face that the bottle you are pouring from is $20 or more.



I am only a couple of miles from both Bevmo and Total Wine, and between the two I can always find some good deal. Yes, if I moved permanently to the boondocks as I once entertained the idea, I would really miss the amenities of the suburb of a metropolitan area,

By the time I filled up my tank to get to Total Wine, it would about be a $20 bottle of wine before I took the bottle to the counter and paid for it! Our towns "wine center" requires you to take a machete with you and cut through the cigarette smoke of the cashiers (yes, they do it on the job) and about every "patron" just to find the wine.
I wouldn't be surprised if that wasn't illegal in some states.


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A Test of ER Resolve
Old 01-21-2016, 09:28 PM   #53
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A Test of ER Resolve

I figured out how to drink cheaply. The $8 high rollers here need to discover the joys of the Botta Box. Now if I can figure out why I drink alone.
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Old 01-21-2016, 09:33 PM   #54
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Our towns "wine center" requires you to take a machete with you and cut through the cigarette smoke of the cashiers (yes, they do it on the job) and about every "patron" just to find the wine.
I wouldn't be surprised if that wasn't illegal in some states.


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I am pretty sure that in WA you cannot smoke within 40 feet of a human being.

Ha
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Old 01-22-2016, 05:07 AM   #55
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Lots of advice here to not watch CNBC, but I say all things in moderation! Here's a nugget from Jack Bogle yesterday (including a line I thought I originated in a totally different context).
"Don't do something, just stand there........"

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/20/inves...he-course.html

As cool as Bogle is, and he is a legend, remember that he makes his livelihood by having investors stay invested with his firm .... His comments represent a conflict of interest if you ask me, no matter how right or wrong he may be.
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Old 01-22-2016, 07:13 AM   #56
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As cool as Bogle is, and he is a legend, remember that he makes his livelihood by having investors stay invested with his firm .... His comments represent a conflict of interest if you ask me, no matter how right or wrong he may be.
At 86 years old, seven heart attacks and a heart transplant, I'm not thinking he is to worried about future earnings. He is a true investor advocate that has exposed the flaws of active fund investing. I am certainly a disciple.
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Old 01-22-2016, 09:03 AM   #57
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As cool as Bogle is, and he is a legend, remember that he makes his livelihood by having investors stay invested with his firm .... His comments represent a conflict of interest if you ask me, no matter how right or wrong he may be.
I don't think Bogle is financially connected to Vanguard any more than I am. Could be wrong about this but my understanding is he is just an old retired guy.
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Old 01-22-2016, 12:36 PM   #58
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I know how you feel. ER'd Sept 18, 2015. I thought having gone through 2008 would have hardened me much more than it has. I thought my response to a downturn would be, "Well, nothing could be as bad as that was. This is cake".

But I didn't know myself very well. I am quite unhinged by the current drop, even though I am 50/50 and have 3 years of living expenses in cash. I learned from 2008 not to give in to the anxiety and cash out, but the living with fear is putting a serious damper on retirement.

A couple of coping strategies are marginally working for me. I review my plan A,B and C which makes me feel a little more in control. Also I tell myself that it was a waste to ER if I'm going to MAKE MYSELF as miserable as I was in my last job.

I retired Jan. 2008 & every time we have a larger than usual drop my mind goes to " Oh no not this again".I then remind myself that I lost 40% of my portfolio and even though I complained a lot I did not sell or go back to work and everything turned out fine .
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Old 01-22-2016, 12:50 PM   #59
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By the time I filled up my tank to get to Total Wine, it would about be a $20 bottle of wine before I took the bottle to the counter and paid for it! Our towns "wine center" requires you to take a machete with you and cut through the cigarette smoke of the cashiers (yes, they do it on the job) and about every "patron" just to find the wine.
I wouldn't be surprised if that wasn't illegal in some states.


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Illegal to smoke on the job - or use a machete?

Here in CA we have some of the most restrictive smoking laws. As a non smoker I like it. I can see where smokers would not like it, though.
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Old 01-22-2016, 03:09 PM   #60
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Illegal to smoke on the job - or use a machete?



Here in CA we have some of the most restrictive smoking laws. As a non smoker I like it. I can see where smokers would not like it, though.

As long as you aren't threatening anyone with either, I am sure you are fine here! Some small rural restaurants are more progressive here. The smoking and nonsmoking section may have an arms distance between them.


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