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Old 07-23-2016, 12:28 PM   #181
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About predicting the future. And this is very strange. I recently ran across a old Visual Basic program I wrote in 1989. It projected my future retirement assets to 2016, including my estimates for contributions, inflation, etc. In spite of all the changes in my life and my business since then, and all the mistakes I made along the way, it was correct to within about a 7% error.
Similar here too. A couple of years after the start of my career, I realized that I wanted to get out by my 50's at the latest, for all the reasons commonly discussed. My online brokerage offered a primitive online retirement calculator. I took a guess at my desired retirement income, then it estimated the needed portfolio. Well, I realized I had a long way to go and started doubling my savings rate!

About 2 decades later, I FIRED with a portfolio about 13% less than predicted, but then expenses are 13% less than originally estimated. Pretty accurate considering all the changes in 2 decades:

- Lost my last dependent (aging parent)

- Married in my late 30's, to a hard working career gal; became DINKS (no kids). Fortunately, DW is also a saver!

- Tech career soared, then tanked the last half dozen years

- Chronic overachiever and leader became a burnout looking for the door

- Poured money into the market, much of the time into the "lost" investing decade of 2000-2010. It was an act of faith, more than any effort to "buy low"


I'm glad I made plans back then since they have allowed DW and I to FIRE together. In many respects, though, my life has completely changed in the past 2 decades. Still, all the errors and changes somehow offset each other and we got out about 13% before plan, in large part because we don't need as much $$ as I had feared! Bottom line: we somehow FIRE'd 6 years ahead of the most aggressive plan I could have realistically imagined 20 years ago.

FB
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Old 07-23-2016, 01:55 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by FreeBear View Post
Similar here too. A couple of years after the start of my career, I realized that I wanted to get out by my 50's at the latest, for all the reasons commonly discussed. My online brokerage offered a primitive online retirement calculator. I took a guess at my desired retirement income, then it estimated the needed portfolio. Well, I realized I had a long way to go and started doubling my savings rate!

About 2 decades later, I FIRED with a portfolio about 13% less than predicted, but then expenses are 13% less than originally estimated. Pretty accurate considering all the changes in 2 decades:

- Lost my last dependent (aging parent)

- Married in my late 30's, to a hard working career gal; became DINKS (no kids). Fortunately, DW is also a saver!

- Tech career soared, then tanked the last half dozen years

- Chronic overachiever and leader became a burnout looking for the door

- Poured money into the market, much of the time into the "lost" investing decade of 2000-2010. It was an act of faith, more than any effort to "buy low"


I'm glad I made plans back then since they have allowed DW and I to FIRE together. In many respects, though, my life has completely changed in the past 2 decades. Still, all the errors and changes somehow offset each other and we got out about 13% before plan, in large part because we don't need as much $$ as I had feared! Bottom line: we somehow FIRE'd 6 years ahead of the most aggressive plan I could have realistically imagined 20 years ago.

FB
Yes this is what I found too. Of course if I had compared it in the year 2000 or 2009, things the estimate would not have been so close. Probably the best lesson is that it is important to start thinking about that seemingly far off future early, and keep up saving. And in spite of all of our errors and life changes, we might just come out all right. Certainly better than many of those who never thought it at all.
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Old 07-23-2016, 02:13 PM   #183
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Same here Free Bear. We were late savers, late marriage, no kids, combined 70 years of employment (still) and see a door opening right now to push the button. Would enter into retirement with a very safe diversification though and see what happens. Hope this thread is bound and added to the FAQ's. Go into the light!
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Old 07-24-2016, 06:46 AM   #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaMan View Post
About predicting the future. And this is very strange. I recently ran across a old Visual Basic program I wrote in 1989. It projected my future retirement assets to 2016, including my estimates for contributions, inflation, etc. In spite of all the changes in my life and my business since then, and all the mistakes I made along the way, it was correct to within about a 7% error.
I kept a copy of my retirement plan which projected our retirement savings from when I retired at the end of 2011 at age 56 to age 100. Thanks to Mr. Market, our retirement savings today is 113% of what I predicted and that is AFTER buying a winter condo and building a two-car garage at our main home, neither of which were anticipated in that plan, but also excludes planned outgo for DD's wedding and DS's college, neither of which have happened yet. If I reduce our current portfolio for DD's wedding and DS's college then the 113% declines to 107%... so we're off to a good start.
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Old 07-24-2016, 06:54 AM   #185
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Sorry if you remember my story from previous posts, but we were very late to the FIRE process as well. Terrible, expensive divorce reset my financials to zero at age 42. Remarried at 45 to a saver. Career took off in my late 40's. Investible net worth passed $1milluon around aged 48. By age 56 retired with net worth significantly into 8 figures. Lucky beyond belief. Many different ways to get to the promised land.
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