Is it enough? Is it ever enough?

[New Thinking]

CRR

T
Obviously those are just two anecdotes, but from my experience the broader pattern holds. If you have a cite or argument for the 80% I'd be interested in it. It's not a big deal though, because the larger idea that $130K in an account somewhere is enough to deal with most cases of LTC seems reasonable and also achievable for many (at least among this board demographic).

I cited this as research shows the more educated individuals are, the less likely to need LTC. Severe needs are a duration of three plus years for those with 2+ Activities of Daily Living or dementia according to the Center for Retirement Research. It’s a 20% probability for those with at least "some college" to have severe needs, so I just reversed the positioning of the figures in the post to say 80% won't need five years of care.
Citation:
Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, “What Level of Long-Term Services and Supports Do Retirees Need?”, Issue Brief Number 21-10, page 4, June 2021.

 

[SecondCor521]

I cited this as research shows the more educated individuals are, the less likely to need LTC. Severe needs are a duration of three plus years for those with 2+ Activities of Daily Living or dementia according to the Center for Retirement Research. It’s a 20% probability for those with at least "some college" to have severe needs, so I just reversed the positioning of the figures in the post to say 80% won't need five years of care.
Citation:
Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, “What Level of Long-Term Services and Supports Do Retirees Need?”, Issue Brief Number 21-10, page 4, June 2021.

Thank you very much! I found the article at https://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/IB_21-10.pdf.

I think my anecdotes are just that - anecdotes and not data. The study cited does show a drop from about 28% for less educated to 20% for some college or more for severe needs. My personal experience must not match the larger pattern for whatever reason. Perhaps I'm only focused on the more prominent data points in my social circle.

There is a plausible argument that more education means more intellectual stimulation and exercise over a lifetime, which may reduce the overall incidence of dementia. That's what my bridge teacher claimed at one point anyway.

As a quibble, the article defines severe needs as 3 years of care at a moderate or severe level or more, not 5 years. But that seems to mean that your 20% number is too high by some unknown amount and your 80% number similarly too low. So the picture is better than you outlined.

 

[Lsbcal]

Thank you very much! I found the article at https://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/IB_21-10.pdf.

I think my anecdotes are just that - anecdotes and not data. The study cited does show a drop from about 28% for less educated to 20% for some college or more for severe needs. My personal experience must not match the larger pattern for whatever reason. Perhaps I'm only focused on the more prominent data points in my social circle.

There is a plausible argument that more education means more intellectual stimulation and exercise over a lifetime, which may reduce the overall incidence of dementia. That's what my bridge teacher claimed at one point anyway.

As a quibble, the article defines severe needs as 3 years of care at a moderate or severe level or more, not 5 years. But that seems to mean that your 20% number is too high by some unknown amount and your 80% number similarly too low. So the picture is better than you outlined.

Regarding the red above, while I understand the odds and think this sort of thing quite interesting (especially if it is positive for me) there is, of course, only one data point of interest. And that is in the unknowable future. So I try to eat healthy plus get plenty of exercise in body and mind. It's not going to be fun dying in any case but I can live well.

 

[New Thinking]

As a quibble, the article defines severe needs as 3 years of care at a moderate or severe level or more, not 5 years. But that seems to mean that your 20% number is too high by some unknown amount and your 80% number similarly too low. So the picture is better than you outlined.

Yes, I don't disagree with you on the point. My positioning was to cover the five-year period that one might need LTSS (long-term services and supports)...If we cover this, we cover a lot of the risk we face.

And yes, those with more education tend to have better access to healthcare, better mental stimulation activities, better exercise routines, less financial stress over their lifetimes, stronger social networks, etc. All those. I think it's worthwhile to plan accordingly.