Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Any study on impact of yields on SWR?
Old 02-28-2012, 03:02 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
walkinwood's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 2,677
Any study on impact of yields on SWR?

I have seen a number of papers on the impact of equity valuations (PE10) at retirement on SWR.

Are there any papers/studies on the impact of bond valuations (yield) at retirement on SWR?

Edit: I did see this thread on bogleheads. It is a discussion, but no pointers to studies.
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/view...mrr=1280850000
__________________

__________________
walkinwood is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-28-2012, 05:25 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,451
Quote:
Originally Posted by walkinwood View Post
I have seen a number of papers on the impact of equity valuations (PE10) at retirement on SWR.

Are there any papers/studies on the impact of bond valuations (yield) at retirement on SWR?

Edit: I did see this thread on bogleheads. It is a discussion, but no pointers to studies.
Bogleheads • View topic - SWR and current bond yields

I'd love to see these studies also. I suspect that they may not exist.
__________________

__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2012, 05:36 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,979
Here's a good article considering dividend yield and treasury bond yield along with PE10 for determining SWR Can We Predict the Sustainable Withdrawal Rate for New Retirees?. I consider Wade Pfau a good resource, his name has popped up a lot lately for me at least

I would think it would be more valuable to consider all three vs looking at bond yields independently anyway.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2012, 06:49 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
walkinwood's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 2,677
Thanks Midpack. I agree, that it makes more sense to include all 3 elements.

I did not understand all the statistical talk, but it was a useful paper to read. It is not very encouraging, but I take solace from the fact that the fit is at most 75% over the historical data, and two of the 3 parameters are out of bounds from historical values.

Flexibility is the key, I guess, but you can be late to that game too!
__________________
walkinwood is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
SWR and dividends Live And Learn FIRE and Money 34 07-08-2012 11:45 PM
Top five regrets of the dying MichaelB Other topics 81 04-25-2012 03:15 AM
WWYD...year of "retirement" palomalou FIRE and Money 35 03-08-2012 09:44 AM
SWR golfnut FIRE and Money 48 03-01-2012 01:18 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:19 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.